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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Tetra's eclipse hotel booking stop existing within the week?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will someone managram me 1k mana(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.56 | More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-17 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Win by betting "yes"(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | ||
| 0.56 | Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | will x have a significant other
by the end of ross(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Mamdanis Endorsements for house all win?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | WIIL I get first of my bronze league this week? 🩶(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 15?(market prob: 92%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Great Debate)(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July 2027?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis | Space | 18% | |
| 0.56 | Will Texas run out of beer conditioned on the US winning the world cup?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 245_020 Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry Ben Lamm | Other | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Texas become blue(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I severely injure myself with my new supermagnets?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 242_027 Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans Salim Ismail | Auto/Transport | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (dualism)(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-05 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Trump interfere with the World Cup a second time?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I exercise every single day next week?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stick to my lecture protocol and preparation next week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 230_041 Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Evan Li’s text to his EX gain a response(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 231_052 Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 26% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey | Crypto | 28% | ||
| 0.56 | Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Daniel Negreanu win a World Series of Poker Bracelet in 2026(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will Portugal win the VM in football(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Portugal win the VM in football(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin | Consumer | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Elliott Lehrer and Caroline Ellison go on a date in June?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Microwave Background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Microwave Background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will anything be done about the market spam and referral fraud?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Lionel Messi get another hat trick at the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-19 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 242_008 Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed Dave Blundin | Energy | 27% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis | AI | 52% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-25 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 6?(market prob: 100%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-28 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-28 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I exercise every single day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Fable enabled for Australians before July 17th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Fable enabled for Australians before July 17th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-02 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-02 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-05 | AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 33% | ||
| 0.56 | Will a snap election be called in the UK this year?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-06 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Slovakia win the ice hockey world championship 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 236_014 Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 237_014 Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.56 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_014 Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil | Biotech/Longevity | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 232_040 Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. Nick Bostrom | AI | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I present my APUSH project before the end of the school year?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (KM3NeT)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 240_039 Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.56 | On Jan 1, 2028, will it be legal to boil a lobster alive in Switzerland?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (SS 433)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 244_018 In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_003 Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Spurs or Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_060 Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 54% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | ......MART.......(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_006 The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will monsoon reach Bihar by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 70% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will France win the world cup(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei | Geopolitics | 60% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I go to gym at least 2 times this week?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Mbappe play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will there be a conflict in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections?”(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Wii Romania have a new goverment by end of July?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump issue a pardon for Kim Dotcom by the end of 2028?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-01 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Fable enabled for Australians before July 17th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will USA beat Belgium? | ⚽ 2026 FIFA World Cup(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-03 | INF_033 Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regulation: Meta committed $65M to super PACs ('Forge the Future Project', 'Making Our Tomorrow'); a16z backed the $50M 'Leading the Future' PAC — combined $1... Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz) | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | JD Vance Receives Cosmetic Jaw or Face Surgery Before 2028(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. Elon Musk | Robotics | 16% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will Putin attend the G20 Summit in the US in 2026?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.56 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31st?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I take a leave of absence?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Giant Magellan Telescope)(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | CMQ_008 Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. Dario Amodei | Labor/Jobs | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban | Crypto | 4% | |
| 0.56 | Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 232_034 Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Pauline Hanson meet Donald Trump face-to-face in 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | On Jan 1, 2028, will it be legal to boil a lobster alive in Switzerland?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | ||
| 0.56 | Will The Simpsons Movie 2 domestic box office exceed its budget?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2037?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in June 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.56 | European Central Bank raises rates at June meeting?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 236_027 Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Spurs or Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 14% | ||
| 0.56 | Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 240_023 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable Dr. Don Mucalem | Biotech/Longevity | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will monsoon reach Bihar by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. Peter Diamandis | Space | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | asi_recursive_self_improvement | 60% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Will there be a large-scale riot in NYC after the NBA finals?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 229_043 Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 237_015 There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. Alex Finn | Labor/Jobs | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 237_015 There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. Alex Finn | Labor/Jobs | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | INF_059 Global South energy transitions will follow "energy stacking" rather than substitution patterns — households simultaneously use solar panels (primarily for lighting), biomass, LPG, and grid power, reshaping land use and urbanization in peri-urban Afric... Peter Dannenberg | Energy | 59% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Pulisic play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | CR7 VS Messi in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will Supergirl exceed The Marvels worldwide box office?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | |
| 0.56 | Will Pio Esposito play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-26 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 6?(market prob: 100%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will this century's World Cup winners advance to the round of 16?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 244_029 Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different Dara Khosrowshahi | Energy | 35% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Fable enabled for Australians before July 17th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Platner drop out by the end of Friday?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin | Consumer | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_049 Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Bayern vs PSG, Champions League Semi Final Leg 2 6th May of 2026(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters League this season?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Is my number squarefree?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | |
| 0.56 | FREE 1K MANA(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_058 OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk | Energy | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin | Consumer | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 248_024 AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | test-b(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_043 Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. Dave Blundin | Robotics | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will a Goalkeeper score a goal at the 2026 fifa mens World Cup?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will the USA reach the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.56 | Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will someone streak during the World Cup 2026 final match?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Microwave Background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-19 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | The Whaleslayer Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 239_009 People will be on Mars within 10 years Elon Musk | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Messi play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 37% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 231_009 India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by December 31?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 233_016 Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. MacKenzie Price | Education | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-28 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Sony release a new Playstation game on a disc in the year 2028?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | 2026 World Cup R32: Will Spain beat Austria by 2+ goals?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | will i get a 5 on ap physics 1(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 231_012 Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. Peter Diamandis | AI | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will Taylor Swift announce she’s pregnant by Swiftmas (Dec. 13)?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | ⚽️ Will USA defeat Belgium?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.56 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 243_041 Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 242_016 TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Will the montreal canadiens win the stanley cup in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% |