OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes

OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | His statement was, 'I want a hundred scientists winning 100 Nobels.'

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His statement was, 'I want a hundred scientists winning 100 Nobels.'

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "100 scientists winning 100 Nobels",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "I asked Kevin Will, who is also on our stage, right, who's the VP of science. He's in charge of using all of OpenAI's capabilities to advance science. His statement was, 'I want a hundred scientists winning 100 Nobels.'",
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "His statement was, 'I want a hundred scientists winning 100 Nobels.'",
  "conv_cues": "I want",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Kevin Weil departs OpenAI; OpenAI for Science decentralized into other research teams",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/17/kevin-weil-and-bill-peebles-exit-openai-as-company-continues-to-shed-side-quests/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-17",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-17",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public Weil X-post + TechCrunch / CNBC confirmation of departure on April 17, 2026 — original 100-Nobels champion exits before milestone window matures"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI for Science 'Prism' (LaTeX/Cursor-for-scientists) tool ships to broader research community",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/26/1131728/inside-openais-big-play-for-science/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Prism (or successor) general availability for academic users beyond OpenAI partners; public sign-up / institutional access announcement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "238_012",
      "expected_date": "2028-03-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Nobel Prize awarded to laureate who publicly credits AI as a major collaborator",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/26/1131728/inside-openais-big-play-for-science/",
      "expected_date": "2028-04-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-10-31",
        "from": "2027-10-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Nobel committee citation or laureate Nobel lecture explicitly credits a frontier AI model (any lab)
... (truncated)