Forward calibration & shadow scorecard
The honest end-state of the FPT evidence loop. Belief-writers default to SHADOWand only graduate to live writes through a forward-Brier promotion gate. Cohort-split calibration, the per-channel shadow scorecard, recent shadow activity, and belief-motion freshness. No single headline "skill" number, by design.
thesiscohort's high hit rate is largely backfilled survivorship — terminal milestones resolve long-horizon predictions as hits, so the resolved sample is not a forward, out-of-sample test of belief motion. The pmci_v1_trading cohort is quarantined and scored separately. Promotion of any shadow channel requires the forward-Brier gate below to beat both the independent-sample climatology and the frozen prior on non-circular resolutions — until then every belief-writer stays in shadow.Cohort-split calibration
| Cohort | Resolved (n) | Hit rate | Brier (prior) | Brier (current) | Δ Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMCI v1 (quarantined trading) | 302 | 20.9% | 0.1953 | 0.1775 | -0.0178 |
| Thesis (backfilled survivorship) | 88 | 96.6% | 0.0294 | 0.0978 | +0.0684 |
Δ Brier < 0 (green) means the evidence loop improved calibration vs the stated-at-creation probability; Δ Brier > 0 (red) means it degraded it. A degraded thesis Brier is expected while the loop is in shadow and is not evidence of forward skill either way.
Shadow-channel scorecard
| Channel | Ind (n) | Circ / Susp | Brier (shadow) | vs climatology | vs prior | Verdict | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| milestone_hit | 0 | 4 / 0 | — | — | — | shadow ⚠ structurally unpromotable | insufficient_n |
A channel is promotable only when, on its independent (non-circular, non-suspect) forward-resolved sample, its Brier beats both the climatology and the frozen prior at a corrected significance level, for the required consecutive runs. Circular pairs (the channel co-authored the resolution label) and suspect pairs are excluded. milestone_hit is structurally unpromotable while the milestone-derived thesis resolver is the only resolver — external channels are the real promotion candidates.
Recent shadow activity
| Channel | Gate status | Writes (n) | Avg |Δ prob| | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shadow writes in the last 7 days. | ||||
Belief-motion freshness
| Reason class | Moves (n) | Avg |Δ prob| | Last move |
|---|---|---|---|
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 574 | 0.0979 | 5h ago |
| milestone_miss_sweep | 14 | 0.1577 | 3d ago |
| resolution_terminal | 118 | 0.1889 | 19d ago |
| lbp_propagation | 5190 | 0.0341 | 42d ago |
| intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 | 46 | 0.1101 | 44d ago |
| auto_consensus:dc47127b-c217-49d2-97c6-ce58983ee599 | 1 | 0.0548 | 60d ago |
| intake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac0675ec | 9 | 0.1047 | 63d ago |
| reference_class_override: | 1 | 0.6197 | 65d ago |
| intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 | 31 | 0.1371 | 65d ago |
| reference_class_assigned | 446 | 0.1430 | 65d ago |
| intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b79e337 | 1 | 0.3315 | 66d ago |
| intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7adcd0b:weak | 1 | 0.0060 | 66d ago |
A reason class whose last move is > 7 days old (amber) indicates that source of belief motion has gone quiet — useful for spotting silently-broken writers.