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235_025predictionMarkets/StocksAI-scaling

Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
32.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Yeah. Well, if Nvidia unravels, uh, this would be why. I'm not predicting it'll happen because Jensen's investing in a wide variety of ways, but his margins are so high, it's almost unsustainable. So, there is, you know, there's some cracks in the armor there. But every chip that gets made is going to get sold. There's no doubt about that.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
Yeah. Well, if Nvidia unravels, uh, this would be why. I'm not predicting it'll happen because Jensen's investing in a wide variety of ways, but his margins are so high, it's almost unsustainable. So, there is, you know, there's some cracks in the armor there. But every chip that gets made is going to get sold. There's no doubt about that.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-102026-07-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 32.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingHyperscaler custom-silicon deployment crosses majority of new capacity
    How: GOOGL/AMZN/META/MSFT discloses >50% of new AI capacity on custom silicon (TPU/Trainium/MTIA/Maia) on a quarter.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  2. 2026-05-01 → 2027-06-30pendingNvidia gross margin guides below 70% for any quarter
    How: Nvidia quarterly guidance or actual non-GAAP gross margin prints below 70% (vs current 75% guide).
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSustained sell-through despite margin compression (chips-still-sell signal)
    How: Nvidia data-center revenue grows YoY in every quarter even as margin guide softens — confirms 'all chips made will sell' half of thesis.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingAMD MI400-class or Intel Gaudi-4 wins major hyperscaler order
    How: AMD/INTC discloses single-customer AI accelerator order >= $1B in earnings or PR.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSell-side downgrade specifically citing margin sustainability
    How: Tier-1 sell-side (GS/MS/JPM) publishes downgrade or 'cracks' note framed around margin durability.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 32%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-07-03T22:12:25Z32.1%-13.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.321 blend=0.321 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.8214,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Dave Blundin",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.18091765959396836,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4548935503874461,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.8214,
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.5693510941119391,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.32076274355770895,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7502687537059074,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0491,
  "inside_posterior": 0.32076274355770895,
  "blended_posterior": 0.32076274355770895,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.5693510941119391,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 9
}
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z45.5%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.5%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.7%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 49.1% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.1%-4.7pp
Network propagation: 53.7% → 49.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z53.7%-8.8pp
Network propagation: 62.5% → 53.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z62.5%+14.0pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.625 blend=0.625 LLR=0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.5%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 51.2% → 48.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.179
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.550+0.169
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.5500.050+0.155
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.154
prereqSEM_011
Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20Jensen Huang
85.5%0.5500.050+0.154

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.090
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.084
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.080
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.071
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.066

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-12-31Vera Rubin partner availability target for H2 2026pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.750codex_research_packNVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontiercorroboratespending2026-03-16
0.750codex_research_packNVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CEScorroboratespending2026-01-06
0.682gdeltwhy keep buying nvidia stock 160006739.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.607manifoldWorld Series of Poker! Will Daniel Negreanu break even for the 2026 WSOP on his YouTube vlog?33%mentionspending2026-06-23
0.605manifoldWill I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet]35%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.599polymarketWill Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?7%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.596polymarketWill the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?1%mentionspending2026-02-09
0.595polymarketWill Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?1%mentionspending2026-02-09
0.595polymarketWill the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?1%mentionspending2026-02-09
0.594manifoldWill the "5000 Gazans" market bankrupt @Chumchulum?63%mentionspending2026-06-17

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": true,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Not an explicit prediction",
  "context": "Well, if Nvidia unravels, uh, this would be why. I'm not predicting it'll happen because Jensen's investing in a wide variety of ways, but his margins are so high, it's almost unsustainable. So, there is, you know, there's some cracks in the armor there. But every chip that gets made is going to get sold.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "Yeah. Well, if Nvidia unravels, uh, this would be why. I'm not predicting it'll happen because Jensen's investing in a wide variety of ways, but his margins are so high, it's almost unsustainable. So, there is, you know, there's some cracks in the armor there. But every chip that gets made is going to get sold. There's no doubt about that.",
  "conv_cues": "not predicting",
  "direction": "MIXED",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-07-03T22:12:25.328464+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler custom-silicon deployment crosses majority of new capacity",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "GOOGL/AMZN/META/MSFT discloses >50% of new AI capacity on custom silicon (TPU/Trainium/MTIA/Maia) on a quarter."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Nvidia gross margin guides below 70% for any quarter",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,

... (truncated)