COD_SPC_003predictionSpaceStarship-orbital-refueling

SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

35.0%

Current probability

27.6%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

5 / 1

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.500

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 27.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 4 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending

2026-03-19overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-05-01 → 2026-06-30overdueStarship Flight 12 launch — first V3 (Block 3) mission
How: SpaceX successfully launches Starship Flight 12 with V3/Block 3 vehicle
Source: New Space Economy — Starship V3 May 2026 targetconf 85%
Notes: Critical prerequisite — V3 vehicle enables docking + cryogenic transfer hardware.
2026-06-04overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-05-01 → 2026-07-31overdueFlight 12 validates docking and propellant-transfer hardware
How: Flight 12 successfully demonstrates docking port hardware and propellant-transfer plumbing in space (single ship internal transfer)
Source: NASASpaceFlight — Flight 12 vehicle objectivesconf 65%
Notes: Flight 12 itself does NOT do orbital refueling, only validates hardware.
2026-08-20pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-11-06pendingSpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingFirst ship-to-ship docking attempt scheduled
How: SpaceX publicly schedules first dual-launch ship-to-ship docking demonstration
Source: SpaceX / Wikipedia Starship Propellant Transfer Demonstrationconf 55%
2026-10-01 → 2027-06-30pendingVehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer demonstration
How: SpaceX demonstrates successful vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer in low-Earth orbit
Source: SpaceNews / Aerospace America — Starship orbital refueling roadmapconf 30%
Notes: End-2026 deadline ambitious. Wikipedia notes original 2026 schedule still nominal but high slip risk given Flight 12 already slipped to May 2026.
2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingNASA Artemis HLS prerequisite tanker depot demonstration
How: SpaceX demonstrates ~10-tanker propellant depot fill enabling Artemis HLS lunar mission profile
Source: NASA Artemis HLS program / NSF reportingconf 40%
2028-07-03pendingThe next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 28%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-23T22:14:56Z27.6%-2.7pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.276 blend=0.276 LLR=-0.132 κ=0.50 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.5221784499843242,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.8343815809111583,
  "bayes_factor": "1.1:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3027194058045491,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.325,
      "label": "Flight 12 validates docking and propellant-transfer hardware",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/12/flight-12-vehicles-2026/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.13177616013515342,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-15",
      "measurement_criterion": "Flight 12 successfully demonstrates docking port hardware and propellant-transfer plumbing in space (single ship internal transfer)"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.634475085010973,
  "outside_weight": 0.36552491498902695,
  "posterior_prob": 0.2756470079800653,
  "posterior_logit": -0.9661577410463118,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.2756470079800653,
  "blended_posterior": 0.2756470079800653,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.13177616013515342,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-12T22:15:48Z30.3%-4.4pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.303 blend=0.303 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.5523965703025475,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.6316490268570761,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.34713672005861956,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-04",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6133224007882168,
  "outside_weight": 0.38667759921178324,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3027194058045491,
  "posterior_logit": -0.8343815809111583,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3027194058045491,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3027194058045491,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-08T01:14:46Z34.7%-6.9pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.347 blend=0.347 LLR=-0.293 κ=0.85 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.5657914241618335,
  "kappa": 0.8499,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.3387349507831164,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.41611680533516876,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.7224149999999999,
      "label": "Starship Flight 12 launch — first V3 (Block 3) mission",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2026/04/16/spacex-starship-next-launch-targets-may-2026-for-v3-debut/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.29291407607395953,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-31",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX successfully launches Starship Flight 12 with V3/Block 3 vehicle"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6039460030867165,
  "outside_weight": 0.39605399691328347,
  "posterior_prob": 0.34713672005861956,
  "posterior_logit": -0.6316490268570759,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.34713672005861956,
  "blended_posterior": 0.34713672005861956,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.29291407607395953,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z41.6%+1.1pp

Network propagation: 40.5% → 41.6%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z40.5%+2.1pp

Network propagation: 38.4% → 40.5%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.4%+4.1pp

Network propagation: 34.3% → 38.4%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z34.3%+7.5pp

Network propagation: 26.8% → 34.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z26.8%-8.2pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.268 blend=0.268 LLR=-0.385 κ=0.95 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.95,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.6190392084062235,
  "bayes_factor": "1.5:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.35,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.95,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.38519185270275613,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-19",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "prior_prob",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.26811035797215893,
  "posterior_logit": -1.0042310611089795,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.26811035797215893,
  "blended_posterior": 0.26811035797215893,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.38519185270275613,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

No incoming edges.

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis I — Codex Research Pack	22.2%	0.450	0.050	-0.033

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_MARS_2028	Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
correlate	SPC_012	SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations.	Space	—
correlate	S_MARS_2026	Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
correlate	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026	First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	—
correlate	S_MARS_2031PLUS	Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	—

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	COD_SPC_002	The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028	Space	—

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2026-12-31	Starship HLS large-scale vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer or formal slip	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.761	manifold	Will SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026?	3%	mentions	pending	2026-05-16
0.723	manifold	How many successful SpaceX launches in June 2026 UTC	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-18
0.717	manifold	How many successful SpaceX launches in July 2026 UTC	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-24
0.716	manifold	How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTC	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-01
0.715	manifold	Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?	43%	mentions	pending	2026-06-10
0.705	manifold	Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?	25%	mentions	pending	2026-06-18
0.700	codex_research_pack	NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts	—	mentions	pending	2026-03-01
0.700	manifold	When will SpaceX and Tesla merge?	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-19
0.699	manifold	Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?	27%	mentions	pending	2026-06-17
0.696	manifold	By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-19",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starship Flight 12 launch — first V3 (Block 3) mission",
      "notes": "Critical prerequisite — V3 vehicle enables docking + cryogenic transfer hardware.",
      "source": "New Space Economy — Starship V3 May 2026 target",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2026/04/16/spacex-starship-next-launch-targets-may-2026-for-v3-debut/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T01:14:46.026680+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX successfully launches Starship Flight 12 with V3/Block 3 vehicle"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-04",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-12T22:15:48.822613+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Flight 12 validates docking and propellant-transfer hardware",
      "notes": "Flight 12 itself does NOT do orbital refueling, only validates hardware.",
      "source": "NASASpaceFlight — Flight 12 vehicle objectives",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/12/flight-12-vehicles-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-15",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-23T22:14:56.619373+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-07-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Flight 12 successfully demonstrates docking port hardware and propellant-transfer plumbing in space (single ship internal transfer)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_SPC_003",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First ship-to-ship docking attempt scheduled",
      "source": "SpaceX / Wikipedia Starship Propellant Transfer Demonstration",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_Propellant_Transfer_Demonstration",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX publicly schedules first dual-launch ship-to-ship docking demonstration"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vehicle-to-vehic
... (truncated)