← Cockpit
235_035predictionAIAI-timing

Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
40.0%
Current probability
22.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
2/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | lots of rumors that this time around finally with Gemini integration, they they're on the critical path and they'll finally launch... hopefully Apple is able to finally this time for real get their act together at WWDC in June. One can hope.

Watch events: Apple WWDC 2026 June 8-12 keynote

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
lots of rumors that this time around finally with Gemini integration, they they're on the critical path and they'll finally launch... hopefully Apple is able to finally this time for real get their act together at WWDC in June. One can hope.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04
κ (discount)
0.861
Brier
0.0406
excellent
Hits / Misses
8 / 1
of 13 resolved
Hit rate
61.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 40%2026-04-302026-05-032026-06-19
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 22.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-12hitApple-Google Gemini licensing deal publicly announced
    How: Apple and Google publicly disclose multi-year deal licensing custom Gemini model (~1.2T params) for Siri / Apple Intelligence; confirmed by Bloomberg, NYT, or Apple/Google Newsroom
    Source: https://tech-insider.org/apple-google-gemini-siri-deal-1-billion-2026/conf 95%
  2. 2026-03-24hitApple WWDC 2026 keynote scheduled and confirmed
    How: Apple officially announces WWDC 2026 keynote date (June 8, 2026, 10am PT), confirmed by Apple Newsroom and major outlets (Macworld, 9to5Mac, Apple Insider)
    Source: https://www.macworld.com/article/678333/wwdc-keynote-event-time-what-launch-ios-macos-watchos-hardware.htmlconf 99%
  3. 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-12overdueWWDC 2026 keynote demos AI-powered Siri or 'Apple Intelligence v2' powered by Gemini
    How: During WWDC 2026 keynote (June 8) or sessions through June 12, Apple publicly demos or announces redesigned Siri / Apple Intelligence built on Gemini (or Apple/Gemini hybrid); confirmed by keynote video and Apple PR
    Source: https://trak.in/stories/apples-wwdc-2026-on-june-8-ai-powered-features-apps-expected/conf 85%
  4. 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-15overdueiOS 27 developer beta with new Siri / Gemini features ships at WWDC
    How: Apple ships iOS 27 developer beta within one week of WWDC keynote with new Siri/AI features installable for testing; verified by developer.apple.com release and 9to5Mac coverage
    Source: https://thetechportal.com/2026/03/24/apple-to-hold-wwdc26-from-june-8-12-likely-to-reveal-ios-27-and-ai-powered-siri/conf 90%
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31pendingCascade: Public Siri/Gemini release ships in iOS 27 GA in September 2026
    How: Apple ships iOS 27 to general public with Gemini-powered Siri working out-of-box on iPhone 16 / 17 / Pro models; confirmed by Apple release notes and major review outlets
    Source: https://www.tomsguide.com/tech-events/apples-wwdc-2026-conference-kicks-off-in-june-heres-what-we-expect-to-seeconf 70%
  6. 2026-12-01 → 2027-03-31pendingCascade: Apple's Gemini-Siri reaches >100M users active in first quarter post-release
    How: Apple earnings call or third-party tracker confirms >100M active users on new Gemini-powered Siri within 3 months of iOS 27 GA launch
    Source: https://www.businessworld.in/article/wwdc-2026-apple-june-8-ios-27-siri-ai-keynote-599115conf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 22%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-19T22:16:22Z22.4%-5.9pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.224 blend=0.224 LLR=-0.314 κ=0.86 no_blend
Raw metadata
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  "trf": 0.3473088577646073,
  "kappa": 0.8611,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.9267023442128326,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.28359421602344714,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.77499,
      "label": "iOS 27 developer beta with new Siri / Gemini features ships at WWDC",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3142314041327463,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-11",
      "measurement_criterion": "Apple ships iOS 27 developer beta within one week of WWDC keynote with new Siri/AI features installable for testing; verified by developer.apple.com release and 9to5Mac coverage"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.7568837995647748,
  "outside_weight": 0.2431162004352252,
  "posterior_prob": 0.22427349513811265,
  "posterior_logit": -1.240933748345579,
  "predictor_brier": 0.04061,
  "inside_posterior": 0.22427349513811265,
  "blended_posterior": 0.22427349513811265,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.3142314041327463,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 13
}
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-18T22:14:00Z28.4%-6.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.284 blend=0.284 LLR=-0.297 κ=0.86 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.3818485679150702,
  "kappa": 0.8611,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.6299282403096831,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3475268092772119,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.731935,
      "label": "WWDC 2026 keynote demos AI-powered Siri or 'Apple Intelligence v2' powered by Gemini",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2967741039031493,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-10",
      "measurement_criterion": "During WWDC 2026 keynote (June 8) or sessions through June 12, Apple publicly demos or announces redesigned Siri / Apple Intelligence built on Gemini (or Apple/Gemini hybrid); confirmed by keynote video and Apple PR"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.7327060024594507,
  "outside_weight": 0.2672939975405493,
  "posterior_prob": 0.28359421602344714,
  "posterior_logit": -0.9267023442128324,
  "predictor_brier": 0.04061,
  "inside_posterior": 0.28359421602344714,
  "blended_posterior": 0.28359421602344714,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2967741039031493,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 13
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z34.8%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 35.9% → 34.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z35.9%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 37.5% → 35.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z37.5%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 40.0% → 37.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.400+0.141
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.400+0.123
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.400+0.106
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.4000.050+0.096
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.4000.050+0.092

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
8.4%0.6200.050+0.121
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
14.1%0.6500.050+0.072
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
18.0%0.7000.050+0.047
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
16.9%0.5500.050+0.017
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
24.4%0.7500.050-0.004

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.822manifoldWill Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?73%mentionspending2026-05-01
0.761manifoldWill Apple announce a major AI model partnership (e.g., OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic) at WWDC 2026?69%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.749manifoldWill Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?73%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.746manifoldWhen is Gemini 3.5 Pro preview going to start?mentionspending2026-06-12
0.736manifoldWill Gemini 3.5 Pro be released on the Gemini API by July 12?16%mentionspending2026-07-02
0.733manifoldWill Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?87%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.731manifoldWhen will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?mentionspending2026-06-28
0.722polymarketWill a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?10%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.721manifoldGemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?88%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.711polymarketGemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?98%mentionspending2026-04-27

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "On the other hand, lots of rumors that this time around finally with Gemini integration, they they're on the critical path and they'll finally launch. Finally, Siri will not suck anymore. Apple intelligence, however they brand it... hopefully Apple is able to finally this time for real get their act together at WWDC in June. One can hope.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "lots of rumors that this time around finally with Gemini integration, they they're on the critical path and they'll finally launch... hopefully Apple is able to finally this time for real get their act together at WWDC in June. One can hope.",
  "conv_cues": "rumors; hopefully; One can hope",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "June 2026 WWDC",
  "conv_level": "LOW",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Apple-Google Gemini licensing deal publicly announced",
      "source": "https://tech-insider.org/apple-google-gemini-siri-deal-1-billion-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-12",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-12",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "Apple and Google publicly disclose multi-year deal licensing custom Gemini model (~1.2T params) for Siri / Apple Intelligence; confirmed by Bloomberg, NYT, or Apple/Google Newsroom"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
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      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Apple WWDC 2026 keynote scheduled and confirmed",
      "source": "https://www.macworld.com/article/678333/wwdc-keynote-event-time-what-launch-ios-macos-watchos-hardware.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-08",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-24",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00",
      "research_origin": "
... (truncated)