By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill

By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have

I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "No one will ever do that again after the end of this year",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "end of 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches GA with autonomous task execution",
      "source": "https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/concepts/agents/anthropic-claude",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/concepts/agents/anthropic-claude",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "GitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches General Availability (announced September 2025) supporting autonomous multi-step tasks"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based)",
      "source": "https://www.aimadetools.com/blog/github-copilot-usage-based-billing/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.aimadetools.com/blog/github-copilot-usage-based-billing/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-09T22:16:28.423075+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "GitHub Copilot officially launches usage-based billing model effective June 1, 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Top 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market share",
      "source": "https://aiproductivity.ai/blog/github-copilot-vs-claude-code/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://aiproductivity.ai/blog/github-copilot-vs-claude-code/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "researc
... (truncated)