In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | And then I think next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes and start like making sure they work well.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
And then I think next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes and start like making sure they work well.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-10-09hitFigure 03 announced as $20K home-focused humanoid (Helix AI)How: Figure announces 03 hardware design at $20K target price, marketed for household tasks; per Time / Humanoids Daily / Figure press releaseSource: https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-03-reviewconf 95%
- 2025-10-15hitBrett Adcock confirms Figure 03 home alpha-testing in 2026How: Adcock public statement (X, Time interview, conference talk) confirms select home deployments / alpha tests beginning in 2026Source: https://www.emarketer.com/content/figure-ai-testing-humanoid-robots-homesconf 95%
- 2026-03-01 → 2026-09-30overdueFigure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacityHow: Figure / Sourcery.vc / Humanoids Daily confirms BotQ annualized run rate reaches >=10,000 units/year — verifying scale needed for home shippingSource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturingconf 80%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingFirst Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home)How: Figure announcement / customer interview confirms a Figure 03 has been delivered to a paying (or invited) non-employee household for alpha testing — distinct from employee/internal testingSource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/inside-the-campus-figure-s-plan-for-24-7-autonomy-and-leasable-home-robotsconf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-08-31pendingFigure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmarkHow: Figure publishes blog or paper documenting human-intervention rate for home tasks (laundry, dishes, cleaning) — measurement Adcock specifically cited as iteration loopSource: https://metatrends.substack.com/p/figures-general-purpose-robot-whyconf 60%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027How: Figure announcement / industry tracker (humanoidintel.ai, Humanoids Daily) confirms cumulative home alpha-testing deployments >=100 separate householdsSource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomyconf 45%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 1,
"kappa": 0.7917,
"base_rate": 0.1,
"predictor": "Brett Adcock",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.5382308580381845,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 30% inside / 70% outside (TRF=1.000, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
"inside_prior": 0.3685992256592736,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.63336,
"label": "Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacity",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.256805380871387,
"expected_date": "2026-06-15",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure / Sourcery.vc / Humanoids Daily confirms BotQ annualized run rate reaches >=10,000 units/year — verifying scale needed for home shipping"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
"outside_weight": 0.7,
"posterior_prob": 0.14472742472158448,
"posterior_logit": -0.7950362389095715,
"predictor_brier": 0.0324,
"inside_posterior": 0.31108831552308247,
"blended_posterior": 0.14472742472158448,
"reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.256805380871387,
"predictor_n_resolved": 7
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.256 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.248 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.239 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.237 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.233 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_020 Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs — Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.7% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.141 |
| prereq | 247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US — Alex Wissner-Gross | 8.4% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.074 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 12.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.059 |
| prereq | 236_021 Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (E — Elon Musk | 11.6% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.042 |
| prereq | 235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. — Elon Musk | 16.3% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 | Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 | Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_020 | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_032 | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Robotics | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-12-31 | [Robotics 2027-12] ume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_021] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_026] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.728 | manifold | Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? | 14% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-26 |
| 0.723 | manifold | Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2030? | 8% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-09 |
| 0.704 | manifold | Humanoid robot walking around me within three years? | 43% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.666 | manifold | Will I make USAMO in 2027 | 37% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.664 | manifold | Will there be a drone emoji before 2032? | 51% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-12 |
| 0.648 | manifold | Will a bot win prize drawing this year? | 37% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.626 | manifold | Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027? | 86% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.625 | manifold | Will jesus respawn before 2027???? | 5% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-29 |
| 0.619 | manifold | By what date will the 21st Century Road to Housing Act become law? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-24 |
| 0.618 | manifold | [Kalshi] 21st Century ROAD to Housing law becomes law this year? | 94% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-25 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "I think we'd be on the path of solving general robotics. And then I think next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes and start like making sure they work well.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "And then I think next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes and start like making sure they work well.",
"conv_cues": "I think",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "next year (2027)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
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"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
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{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacity",
"source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-prod
... (truncated)