Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source
Prediction text
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | I think Sam is a genius by the way...if the lawsuit blows over and they have 120 billion in cash he's going to do something epic with it. But Elon's relentless...if someone offered me a share of anthropic or a share of open AI which one would I grab at? I'd take the actually you can get two or three anthropics for each open AI. So I'd take the three anthropics for sure.
Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
I think Sam is a genius by the way...if the lawsuit blows over and they have 120 billion in cash he's going to do something epic with it. But Elon's relentless...if someone offered me a share of anthropic or a share of open AI which one would I grab at? I'd take the actually you can get two or three anthropics for each open AI. So I'd take the three anthropics for sure.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-12hitAnthropic closes $30B round at $380B post-money valuationHow: Anthropic announces closed financing round; primary press confirms $380B post-money.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%Observed: USD 380B post-money
- 2026-04-29hitAnthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuationHow: Bloomberg/CNBC/TechCrunch confirm Anthropic considering offers at >=$900B that would top OpenAI's $852B Feb-2026 mark.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-06-30overdueAnthropic board approves the >=$900B roundHow: Anthropic publicly confirms close (or board approval) of the $50B round at >=$852B post-money, exceeding OpenAI's Feb-2026 mark.Source: llm_enrichedconf 70%Notes: Bloomberg reports definitive board decision targeted for May 2026.
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingAnthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)How: Independent reporting (The Information, FT, Bloomberg) shows Anthropic ARR > OpenAI ARR for at least one trailing month.Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%Notes: Tied to mid-2026 ARR-crossover thesis already tracked elsewhere in this corpus.
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingAnthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosedHow: Public S-1 (or F-1) filing for Anthropic; Bloomberg reports IPO could come as early as October 2026.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.7568302894795658,
"kappa": 0.8214,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Dave Blundin",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.19252240280504782,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.45201751323438144,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.5749799999999999,
"label": "Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
"expected_date": "2026-05-31",
"measurement_criterion": "Anthropic publicly confirms close (or board approval) of the $50B round at >=$852B post-money, exceeding OpenAI's Feb-2026 mark."
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.47021879736430394,
"outside_weight": 0.5297812026356961,
"posterior_prob": 0.39516393968148794,
"posterior_logit": -0.42565673066508014,
"predictor_brier": 0.0491,
"inside_posterior": 0.39516393968148794,
"blended_posterior": 0.39516393968148794,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
"predictor_n_resolved": 9
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.105 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.095 |
| prereq | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated — Jensen Huang | 86.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.081 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.080 |
| prereq | SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20 — Jensen Huang | 85.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.079 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 18.0% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.141 |
| prereq | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.118 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.079 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.065 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (16)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 | First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_FAST_2027 | AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 | First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 | AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS | AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "you can get two or three anthropics for each open AI. So I'd take the three anthropics for sure",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "I think Sam is a genius by the way...if the lawsuit blows over and they have 120 billion in cash he's going to do something epic with it. But Elon's relentless...if someone offered me a share of anthropic or a share of open AI which one would I grab at? I'd take the actually you can get two or three anthropics for each open AI. So I'd take the three anthropics for sure.",
"conv_cues": "I'd take the three anthropics for sure",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Near-term",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Anthropic closes $30B round at $380B post-money valuation",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
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"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/anthropic-closes-30-billion-funding-round-at-380-billion-valuation.html",
"expected_date": "2026-02-12",
"observed_date": "2026-02-12",
"hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00",
"observed_value": "USD 380B post-money",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Anthropic announces closed financing round; primary press confirms $380B post-money."
},
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"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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"hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00"
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{
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"kind": "prereq",
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"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29",
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/anthropic-considering-funding-offers-at-over-900-billion-value",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29",
"hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Bloomberg/CNBC/TechCrunch confirm Anthropic considering offers at >=$900B that would top OpenAI's $852B Feb-2026 mark."
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "A
... (truncated)