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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will anyone managram me 5000 mana in 1 week?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 26% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I win the main prize in this (second) prize drawing?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 244_036 Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing) Dara Khosrowshahi | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 58% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will USD strengthen against GBP in the next 24h?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_017 Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 8% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 28% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | European Central Bank raises rates at June meeting?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 242_025 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | "Backrooms" sequel film announced by end of June?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I get into any MATS tracks in the Autumn 2026 cohort?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will anyone bet on this market by 17:00 Central?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TSTST?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.58 | Will someone streak during the World Cup 2026 final match?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 232_046 SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. Elon Musk | Space | 23% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 229_036 Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. Dave Blundin | Space | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 247_024 Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 28% | ||
| 0.58 | Will anyone finish five chicken bowls in 20 minutes at RSI 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | S_ASI_FAST_2031 ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI | asi_recursive_self_improvement | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Nintendo deliver the Ocarina of Time remake in 2026 as promised?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Will the 2026-2027 NBA Champion have the best record in the NBA?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will I qualify for RMM 2027?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 234_011 Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | ||
| 0.58 | Will USD strengthen against EUR in the next 24h?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Oh-My-God particle)(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Oh-My-God particle)(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5](market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_009 Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI Eric Schmidt | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | |
| 0.58 | Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 230_038 AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | Will US Average Gas Price fall below $4.10 in May 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 48% | |
| 0.58 | Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Do you like 54% odds?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk | Other | 50% | |
| 0.58 | METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 28% | |
| 0.58 | Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 26% | |
| 0.58 | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 26% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Can anyone get talkie-1930 to describe Chomskian recursive syntax?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | |
| 0.58 | This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $739.17 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 239_022 Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency Elon Musk | AI | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 22nd, 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will SPY close below $720 on Friday, May 29, 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will I successfully refer someone for Ṁ1,000?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 230_039 Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. Alex Wissner-Gross | Education | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | 22% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Starmer out before October?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Am I a brain in a vat?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley | Labor/Jobs | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I get into any MATS tracks in the Autumn 2026 cohort?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.58 | Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | 5% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 229_031 At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Trump be in the World Cup Champions Photo? [Polymarket](market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 236_029 Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated Andrew Yang | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | IND_006 Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 56% | ||
| 0.58 | Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 229_031 At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | |
| 0.58 | Will I be promoted to Gold league or higher by the time my league closes(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by December 31?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.58 | Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket](market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | |
| 0.58 | Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_009 Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI Eric Schmidt | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416 : Best word competition.(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | will Darren go on one date per day between July 3rd to July 6th.(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | 巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will I qualify for RMM 2027?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | 𓆩✧𓆪 Will I be promoted to PLATINUM this month? 𓆩✧𓆪(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Claude Fable 5 be accessible in a subscription on July 31 2026?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.58 | Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 238_013 Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advance Peter Diamandis | AI | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg | Labor/Jobs | 22% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 242_049 W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-03 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil | Biotech/Longevity | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | Will Intel trade below $94 in May?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 237_021 Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. Alex Finn | Crypto | 30% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 239_018 Universal High Income will be implemented Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will USD strengthen against GBP in the next 24h?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-10 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I hold a session at Less.Online 2026(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-29 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 13% | ||
| 0.58 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will an Atlantic hurricane (Category 1+) form before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (tidal disruption event)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 24% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Tully–Fisher Relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Do you like 42% odds?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | ......MART.......(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 243_041 Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 48% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 243_043 Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen | Macro/Economy | 48% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 230_043 The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobsters) in a 'crypto dystopia'. Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the next UK PM be contested?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will somebody mammogram/managram me 1500 times(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.58 | will this market have 50 or more unique traders by july 5(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.58 | Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the 2026-2027 NBA Champion have the best record in the NBA?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | VALVE?!(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 8th, 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-03 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Intel trade below $94 in May?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 243_032 Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | |
| 0.58 | Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 53% | ||
| 0.58 | Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | |
| 0.58 | Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-19 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-30 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Chicago A1 have any tiebreak quals at ARML 2026?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-24 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | US Gas Price $3.800 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | Resolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.58 | Resolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup final be decided by penalties?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Does Saudi Arabia normalize with Israel before December 31 2028?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | Will the price of silver exceed $70 at the end of June(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (inflationary expansion)(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-21 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 239_010 Mass driver on the moon within 10 years Elon Musk | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will anyone finish five chicken bowls in 20 minutes at RSI 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 243_029 Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 48% | |
| 0.58 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I exercise every single day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | 巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 238_021 Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | 𓆩✧𓆪 Will I be promoted to PLATINUM this month? 𓆩✧𓆪(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 24% | |
| 0.58 | 𓆩✧𓆪 Will I be promoted to PLATINUM this month? 𓆩✧𓆪(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-05 | FUT_007 Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Silver hit $65 an ounce by close of market Friday?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Will a snap election be called in the UK this year?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 240_016 Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | US Consumer Price Index (April '26) < 3.55%(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 231_049 If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | Do you like 54% odds?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Can anyone get talkie-1930 to describe Chomskian recursive syntax?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 230_004 We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 231_005 Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 21% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Hasan Piker endorse the Democratic candidate in the 2028 election?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 243_019 Autonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come down Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will an Atlantic hurricane (Category 1+) form before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 58% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 239_006 AI will solve everything including longevity Elon Musk | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis | AI | 27% | |
| 0.58 | Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Will I reach a streak of 1000?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Alex Bores run for Congress in 2028?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | The Whaleslayer Coinflip V2(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-22 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | |
| 0.58 | Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July 2027?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 Peter Diamandis | Energy | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the food messages come back from the f.?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 9% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | 2026 World Cup R32: Will France beat Sweden by 2 goals?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 16% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the 2026-2027 NBA Champion have the best record in the NBA?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-05 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 248_036 AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | INF_060 Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive paradigm shift away from lithium as the sole foundational element of global energy storage. Elon Musk | Energy | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 241_033 Few frontier AI companies will be in China Eric Schmidt | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | US Consumer Price Index (April '26) < 3.55%(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.58 | My current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026)(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5](market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_032 AI has chance of fixing poverty globally Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% |