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234_015predictionMarkets/StocksAI-scaling

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
30.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
13 / 5
Tickers exposed
40

Prediction text

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | I mean I mean talk about hot IPO markets you know Anthropic going public, open eye going public, SpaceX going public. Uh these are going to be insane numbers in the next we're seeing that what in the next six months likely.

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence; Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced"
I mean I mean talk about hot IPO markets you know Anthropic going public, open eye going public, SpaceX going public. Uh these are going to be insane numbers in the next we're seeing that what in the next six months likely.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04
κ (discount)
0.881
Brier
0.0470
excellent
Hits / Misses
11 / 0
of 16 resolved
Hit rate
68.8%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.610

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
0.687
TRF=0.45
Outside weight
0.313
pulling toward base rate
inside 23.7% → blend 30.9% 7.2pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

9 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-07-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 30.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 3 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidential draft S-1 filed with SEC
    How: SpaceX confidential draft registration statement filed with SEC, confirmed by news reports (Bloomberg/Reuters/CNBC) or SEC EDGAR
    Source: https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/conf 90%
  2. 2026-05-15 → 2026-05-31overdueSpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR
    How: SpaceX prospectus appears publicly on SEC EDGAR as part of registration process (15+ calendar days before any marketing); verifiable on sec.gov
    Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/conf 80%
  3. 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-15overdueSpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event
    How: SpaceX management commences roadshow week of June 8 2026, with major retail investor event on June 11; confirmed via banks (Goldman/Morgan Stanley/JPM) press releases
    Source: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261764312-spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-musk-ai-valuation-retail-investors-tradingkeyconf 70%
  4. 2026-06-15 → 2026-09-30pendingCascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQ
    How: SpaceX shares begin trading on public US exchange (ticker assigned, opening cross executed); verified via NYSE/NASDAQ press release
    Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/01/spacex-anthropic-and-openai-could-be-fast-tracked/conf 55%
  5. 2026-04-15hitOpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statement
    How: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar (or replacement) publicly states OpenAI not ready for IPO by end of 2026; reported by Bloomberg/CNBC/Reuters
    Source: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261831345-openai-ipo-anthropic-spacex-valuation-altman-friar-revenue-tradingkeyconf 85%
  6. 2026-08-01 → 2026-11-30pendingAnthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SEC
    How: Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 registration statement with SEC, verified via SEC EDGAR or major outlet (Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ)
    Source: https://tsginvest.com/upcoming-2026-ipos/conf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 31%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-07-03T22:12:25Z30.9%-10.0pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.237 blend=0.309 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 w_in=0.69 ipo_trillion_plus
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.44767179233177623,
  "kappa": 0.881,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.5582438011678146,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 68% inside / 31% outside (TRF=0.448, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.3639539075368217,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.881,
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.6106626660733118,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6866297453677566,
  "outside_weight": 0.31337025463224344,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3094683570532504,
  "posterior_logit": -1.1689064672411265,
  "predictor_brier": 0.04704,
  "inside_posterior": 0.23705270233486922,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3094683570532504,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6106626660733118,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 16
}
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-19T22:16:22Z40.9%-4.3pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.364 blend=0.409 LLR=-0.250 κ=0.88 w_in=0.66 ipo_trillion_plus
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.48970557620172256,
  "kappa": 0.881,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.30819346899750943,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 65% inside / 34% outside (TRF=0.490, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.4235557537285827,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.6166999999999999,
      "label": "SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2500503321703049,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-11",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX management commences roadshow week of June 8 2026, with major retail investor event on June 11; confirmed via banks (Goldman/Morgan Stanley/JPM) press releases"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6572060966587941,
  "outside_weight": 0.34279390334120585,
  "posterior_prob": 0.40929484086921364,
  "posterior_logit": -0.5582438011678144,
  "predictor_brier": 0.04704,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3639539075368217,
  "blended_posterior": 0.40929484086921364,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2500503321703049,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 16
}
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-31T22:09:40Z45.3%-4.1pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.424 blend=0.453 LLR=-0.284 κ=0.88 w_in=0.62 ipo_trillion_plus
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.5467766117551927,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.024367893321794357,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 61% inside / 38% outside (TRF=0.547, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.49390832809986784,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.7000000000000001,
      "label": "SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2838255756757151,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-23",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX prospectus appears publicly on SEC EDGAR as part of registration process (15+ calendar days before any marketing); verifiable on sec.gov"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.617256371771365,
  "outside_weight": 0.38274362822863495,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4525843125423689,
  "posterior_logit": -0.30819346899750943,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4235557537285827,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4525843125423689,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2838255756757151,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.4%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 50.9% → 49.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.9%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 53.7% → 50.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.7%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 55.4% → 53.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z55.4%+1.2pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.554 w_in=0.53 ipo_trillion_plus
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z54.1%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 55.3% → 54.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z55.3%-4.7pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.553 w_in=0.53 ipo_trillion_plus

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.600+0.247
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.236
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.600+0.225
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.6000.050+0.209
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.208

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
18.0%0.7000.050+0.122
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.098
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.097
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.064
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.048

Ticker exposure

40 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

APLDASMIYPLABEQIXASMLWULFNVDAALABMUIRENCRWVNBISSFTBYAMZNMETAMSFTSTXLNVGYDELLORCLAMTGOOGLAAPLIRM

Adverse (6)

IBMACNCHGGGENLRNWNS

Prerequisites (13)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2028First $1T+ IPO in 2028ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.841manifoldWill Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?70%mentionspending2026-06-27
0.836manifoldWill Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?14%mentionspending2026-06-05
0.817manifoldCombined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceXmentionspending2026-06-08
0.810manifoldWill Anthropic IPO by….?mentionspending2026-06-02
0.801manifoldWhat Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?mentionspending2026-06-10
0.795manifoldHow long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be?mentions2026-04-27
0.791polymarketWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?11%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.777manifoldWhen will OpenAI hold its IPO?mentionspending2026-06-09
0.770polymarketWill OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?0%mentionspending2025-10-29
0.766manifoldWhat Month in 2026 Will OpenAI IPO in?mentionspending2026-06-10

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "6 months",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I mean I mean talk about hot IPO markets you know Anthropic going public, open eye going public, SpaceX going public. Uh these are going to be insane numbers in the next we're seeing that what in the next six months likely.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I mean I mean talk about hot IPO markets you know Anthropic going public, open eye going public, SpaceX going public. Uh these are going to be insane numbers in the next we're seeing that what in the next six months likely.",
  "conv_cues": "likely",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "By September 2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX confidential draft S-1 filed with SEC",
      "source": "https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confidential draft registration statement filed with SEC, confirmed by news reports (Bloomberg/Reuters/CNBC) or SEC EDGAR"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR",
      "source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-23",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-31T22:09:40.747869+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-05-31",
        "from": "2026-05-15"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX prospectus appears publicly on SEC EDGAR as part of registration process (15+ calendar days before any marketing); verifiable on sec.gov"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event",
      "source":
... (truncated)