60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source
Prediction text
60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | 60% of the land area is parking spots in Los Angeles... that becomes gardens. It becomes green land. It becomes parks.
Verbatim quote
60% of the land area is parking spots in Los Angeles... that becomes gardens. It becomes green land. It becomes parks.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst California city adopts robotaxi-anticipating parking-minimum eliminationHow: City council in LA County adopts ordinance citing autonomous vehicles to remove or substantially reduce parking minimums citywide — published city ordinance textSource: llm_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingWaymo or Tesla Robotaxi reaches >100K rides/week in LA marketHow: Either operator publishes (or trade press confirms via leaked metrics) sustained weekly ride volume >100,000 in LA metro area for one full monthSource: llm_enrichedconf 50%
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst major LA mall or commercial property converts >25% of lot to non-parking useHow: Permit filing or completed redevelopment at a top-50 LA commercial property converting parking acreage to housing, parks, retail, or open space — confirmed via LADBS permit records or trade pressSource: llm_enrichedconf 40%
- 2028-06-01 → 2030-12-31pendingLA residential vehicle ownership rate falls >15% from 2024 baselineHow: California DMV registration data shows LA County registered vehicles per household dropping >15% vs 2024 baseline, sustained for 12 monthsSource: llm_enrichedconf 25%
- 2029-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingLA garden / parkland conversion permit volume exceeds 1,000 acres cumulativeHow: Cumulative LA County parking-to-greenspace conversions (LADBS + LA Parks Department) cross 1,000 acres in tracked permit dataSource: llm_enrichedconf 20%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.9686502688780693,
"kappa": 0.8214,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Dave Blundin",
"total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.18367569873006,
"bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.45420973759066463,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.6931471805599453,
"kind": "prereq",
"kappa": 0.8214,
"label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
"weight": 0.5,
"strength": "moderate",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.5693510941119391,
"expected_date": "2026-06-25",
"measurement_criterion": null
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3219448117853515,
"outside_weight": 0.6780551882146485,
"posterior_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
"posterior_logit": -0.7530267928419991,
"predictor_brier": 0.0491,
"inside_posterior": 0.32016213580987235,
"blended_posterior": 0.32016213580987235,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.5693510941119391,
"predictor_n_resolved": 9
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.180 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.170 |
| prereq | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated — Jensen Huang | 86.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.156 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.155 |
| prereq | SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20 — Jensen Huang | 85.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.154 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.091 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.084 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.080 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.066 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.583 | manifold | Resolves to vote percent in Los Angeles Mayor election on June 2 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.561 | polymarket | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels | 64% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
| 0.559 | polymarket | Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.559 | polymarket | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.558 | polymarket | Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 36% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-30 |
| 0.558 | polymarket | Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 73% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.557 | polymarket | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels | 56% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.557 | polymarket | Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-09 |
| 0.554 | polymarket | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 24% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-09 |
| 0.545 | polymarket | New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels | 74% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "60% of LA land",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "60% of the land area is parking spots in Los Angeles... All of that gets released to become new",
"verbatim": "60% of the land area is parking spots in Los Angeles... that becomes gardens. It becomes green land. It becomes parks.",
"conv_cues": "becomes",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "unspecified future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29",
"hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29",
"hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
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"weight": 0.5,
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"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29",
"hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-25",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-07-03T22:12:25.328464+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First California city adopts robotaxi-anticipating parking-minimum elimination",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2027-06-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "City council in LA County adopts ordinance citing autonomous vehicles to remove or substantially reduce parking minimums citywide — published city ordinance text"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Waymo or Tesla Robotaxi reaches >100K rides/week in LA market",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_date": "2027-08-01",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Either operator publishes (or trade press confirms via leaked metrics) sustained weekly ride volume >100,000 in LA metro area for one full month"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "First ma
... (truncated)