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235_041predictionMarkets/StocksAI-scaling

Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
28.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
2/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | But then I ran it through uh perplexity and it said, 'No, that implies a one quadrillion dollar valuation using the current market price earnings ratio ratio.'

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
But then I ran it through uh perplexity and it said, 'No, that implies a one quadrillion dollar valuation using the current market price earnings ratio ratio.'

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-07-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 28.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-03-31hitAnthropic ~$30B ARR confirmed (March 2026)
    How: Public confirmation from Anthropic or credible reporting of ARR figure
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
    Observed: $30B ARR, +1,400% YoY
  2. 2026-04-29hitAnthropic preempted $50B raise at $850-900B valuation (April 2026)
    How: Anthropic reportedly accepts/sources confirm $50B round at $850B+ valuation
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAnthropic IPO or first public valuation milestone ($1T+)
    How: Anthropic files S-1 or completes private secondary at $1T+ implied valuation
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2028-01-01 → 2029-06-30pendingQuadrillion-dollar valuation framing receives mainstream financial-press coverage
    How: WSJ/FT/Bloomberg dedicate front-page coverage to '$1Q valuation' scenario for Anthropic or peer (regardless of acceptance)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%
  5. 2028-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFrontier-AI sector P/E reaches narrative-extreme multiple (10,000x+ on a major name)
    How: Any AI-pure-play public co trades at trailing P/E >= 10,000x for >= 30 trading days
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 20%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 28%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-07-03T22:12:25Z28.5%-12.8pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.285 blend=0.285 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.8214,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Dave Blundin",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.35143176168399287,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4130352657160391,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.8214,
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.5693510941119391,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.28479840889156827,
  "posterior_logit": -0.9207828557959319,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0491,
  "inside_posterior": 0.28479840889156827,
  "blended_posterior": 0.28479840889156827,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.5693510941119391,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 9
}
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z41.3%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 42.3% → 41.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z42.3%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 44.1% → 42.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.1%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 44.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.170
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.500+0.161
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.5000.050+0.149
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.148
prereqSEM_011
Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20Jensen Huang
85.5%0.5000.050+0.147

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
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34.8%0.6000.050-0.111
prereq242_023
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34.2%0.6000.050-0.105
prereq246_016
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35.6%0.6500.050-0.103
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.093
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.089

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.705manifoldWill Anthropic's closing price be greater than its opening price on its first trading day?80%mentionspending2026-07-02
0.659polymarketWill the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 5?0%mentionspending2026-05-29
0.658polymarketWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 8?0%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.658polymarketWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5?13%mentionspending2026-05-29
0.655polymarketWill the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5?97%mentionspending2026-05-29
0.655polymarketWill XRP reach $2.80 in June?1%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.652polymarketWill XRP reach $3.00 in June?0%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.648polymarketWill XRP reach $1.80 in May?8%mentionspending2026-05-01
0.648polymarketWill XRP reach $1.60 in May?1%mentionspending2026-05-01
0.647polymarketWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?49%mentionspending2026-05-08

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$1 quadrillion",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Based on extrapolation using current P/E ratios",
  "context": "I said on the pod, you know, that implies like a $30 billion or $30 trillion valuation. But then I ran it through uh perplexity and it said, 'No, that implies a one quadrillion dollar valuation using the current market price earnings ratio ratio.'",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "But then I ran it through uh perplexity and it said, 'No, that implies a one quadrillion dollar valuation using the current market price earnings ratio ratio.'",
  "conv_cues": "implies",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2029,
  "timeframe": "implied at $1T revenue milestone",
  "conv_level": "LOW",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic ~$30B ARR confirmed (March 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2026/anthropic-hits-30-billion-run-rate-as-enterprise-demand-accelerates/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00",
      "observed_value": "$30B ARR, +1,400% YoY",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public confirmation from Anthropic or credible reporting of ARR figure"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic preempted $50B raise at $850-900B valuation (April 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/29/sources-anthropic-could-raise-a-new-50b-round-at-a-valuation-of-900b/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic reportedly accepts/sources confirm $50B round at $850B+ valuation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed
... (truncated)