COD_ROB_002predictionRoboticsconsumer-humanoid
1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026
Predictor: Codex Research Pack
Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
27.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
1 / 0
Tickers exposed
1
Prediction text
1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026
Predictor: Codex Research Pack
κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
—
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate
—
Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
5 prob_history rows
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 27.1%
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending
- 2026-06-06overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-07-14pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-08-20pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 27%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-14T22:10:53Z27.1%-4.2pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.271 blend=0.271 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.8125541585135582,
"kappa": 0.5,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.7884079662854997,
"bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.31251061210739156,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"kappa": 0.5,
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"weight": 0.05,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
"expected_date": "2026-06-06",
"measurement_criterion": null
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.4312120890405092,
"outside_weight": 0.5687879109594908,
"posterior_prob": 0.27068686239724016,
"posterior_logit": -0.9911405203395819,
"predictor_brier": null,
"inside_posterior": 0.27068686239724016,
"blended_posterior": 0.27068686239724016,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
"predictor_n_resolved": 0
}LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z31.3%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 33.3% → 31.3%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z33.3%-4.3pp
Network propagation: 37.6% → 33.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z37.6%-9.2pp
Network propagation: 46.8% → 37.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.8%-18.2pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 46.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 | 40.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.019 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
1 ticker(s) linked
Beneficiaries (1)
Prerequisites (1)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 | Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 | humanoid_deployment | — |
Dependents (0)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Expected milestones (1)
From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 1X first customer shipments of NEO planned for 2026 | pending |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-06-06",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-14T22:10:53.572585+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-07-14",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-08-20",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "COD_ROB_002",
"expected_date": "2026-09-27",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"source_ids": [
"SRC_1X_FACTORY",
"SRC_1X_WORLD_MODEL"
],
"display_date": "2026-09-27",
"suggested_edges": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"src_id": "S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026",
"weight": 0.8
}
],
"ticker_exposures": {
"adverse": [],
"beneficiaries": [
"NVDA"
]
},
"milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-01T18:30:21.228527+00:00",
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:50.727294+00:00",
"metadata_milestone_sweep_at": "2026-06-14T22:10:53.572585+00:00"
}