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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-19	SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. Demis Hassabis	AI/AGI	29%
0.65	Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will there be a new war by the 1 of July 2026?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-21	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-23	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	GPT-5.6 released by July 13?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-24	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.65	Google model beats Anthropic on LMArena by EOY26(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-29	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	When will the next Claude Fable be released?	manifold 2026-07-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.65	Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-07-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-30	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-07-04	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.65	How much VRAM will NVIDIA 6090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have?	manifold 2026-04-27	240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.65	Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-04-24	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-01	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-01	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.65	Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.65	Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-05	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_008 Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-11	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.65	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	When will the Jai programming language be public?	manifold 2026-05-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	21%
0.65	How many companies with a $5T+ market cap at end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	22%
0.65	Price of July 2026 onion futures as of end of June?	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.65	Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-19	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.65	OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	Will the United States unemployment rate exceed 30% any time before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-24	IND_004 True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... Andrej Karpathy	AI	43%
0.65	Who will be the next Democratic candidate for 2028?	manifold 2026-05-31	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.65	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.65	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.65	Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-01	231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	58%
0.65	▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-06-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.65	Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-03	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.65	Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-04	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.65	Will the NASDAQ crash before Aug 30, 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-12	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.65	Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-13	241_060 Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers Peter Diamandis	Space	54%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-15	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least until the end of 2030?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-16	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.65	Will Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-19	231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.65	What milestones will JAXA's Martian Moons eXploration mission achieve?	manifold 2026-06-22	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.65	Will I burnout by the end of 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-23	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-23	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will "How does such unprofessional AI get the job?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-27	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.65	Will HIMS close at 50.00 or higher in 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-30	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	How much will payfornoreason.com raise by the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-30	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-28	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.65	Which Rocket Launches Next? III	manifold 2026-04-30	246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis	Space	19%
0.65	Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-05-02	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.65	Will "How Go Players Disempower Themselves to AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-02	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.65	Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_031 Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.65	Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-12	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.65	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-14	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	21%
0.65	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-14	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.65	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.65	Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_044 Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments Mark Cuban	Robotics	28%
0.65	Will I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-18	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.65	OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-30	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.65	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-29	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.65	S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-26	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.65	[Add options] Conditional on me joining these real-money prediction markets, will I have positive profit after a month?	manifold 2026-06-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-08	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.65	Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-13	INF_020 In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings. BIS Research	Space	26%
0.65	Which cryptocurrency will have the larger market cap on January 1, 2030?	manifold 2026-06-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.65	Will Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-19	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.65	Who will be the first Artemis astronaut to set foot on the Moon?	manifold 2026-06-23	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.65	Who will be the first Artemis astronaut to set foot on the Moon?	manifold 2026-06-23	246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis	Space	28%
0.65	Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-24	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.65	Will GPT 5.6 Sol and Claude Fable 5 become broadly available to US customers on the same day?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-26	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.65	Will "How does such unprofessional AI get the job?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-27	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.65	Bitcoin price on June 29?	manifold 2026-06-29	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	How much will payfornoreason.com raise by the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-30	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.65	Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-07-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.65	Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-04-25	ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk	Robotics	18%
0.65	Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-25	246_049 Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.65	Which Rocket Launches Next? III	manifold 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.65	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of May 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.65	S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley	Energy	56%
0.65	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	Will anyone get me to post 🌀 in the comments on this market [Convince the Machine #9](market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-06	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.65	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-09	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.65	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-14	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.65	Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.65	Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-17	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.65	Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	2026 political predictions (add your own)	manifold 2026-05-29	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.65	2026 political predictions (add your own)	manifold 2026-05-29	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-27	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-05-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.65	Will the United States unemployment rate exceed 30% any time before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-24	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.65	Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-31	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	Who will be the next Republican candidate for 2028?	manifold 2026-05-31	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-03	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.65	Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-04	238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	51%
0.65	Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-10	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.65	Which of ThePrimeagen’s "Token Apocalypse" predictions will happen first?	manifold 2026-06-11	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.65	Who will be the second trillionaire?	manifold 2026-06-13	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.65	Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	2026 Esports World Cup - Chess winner?	manifold 2026-06-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Which cryptocurrency will have the larger market cap on January 1, 2030?	manifold 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.65	Will BTC hit $70k in June after market creation?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-17	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-19	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	32%
0.65	What milestones will JAXA's Martian Moons eXploration mission achieve?	manifold 2026-06-22	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.65	Will my Trader bonuses exceed 100,000 for the June 2026 season?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-06-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will the S&P 500 index close below 4,800 points on any trading day between June 22 and July 10, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-22	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.65	Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-19	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.65	GPT-5.6 released by July 13?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-24	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.65	Game 1 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result?	manifold 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-28	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.65	Silver price in July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.65	China vs Japan Conflict before 2027?	manifold 2026-04-29	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.65	Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	When will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack?	manifold 2026-04-28	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.65	Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	241_050 AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions Eric Schmidt	AI	57%
0.65	How many StackOverflow questions in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.65	Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-06	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.65	Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-08	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-10	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.65	Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.65	Will the Tasmanian Tiger / Thylacine be confirmed alive by the end of 2030?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-18	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.65	Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.65	Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.65	Will an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.65	Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-26	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.65	When will SpaceX first fly humans around the Moon?	manifold 2026-05-26	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.65	When will SpaceX first fly humans around the Moon?	manifold 2026-05-26	SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis	Space	32%
0.65	Will Bitcoin hit $68,000 or $78,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-31	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.65	Will Bitcoin's biggest single-hour move this week be up or down?	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	When will Manifest 2026 upload videos of presentations to Youtube?	manifold 2026-06-03	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.65	On what rocket will Blue moon MK1-SN001 launch on?	manifold 2026-06-04	SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis	Space	32%
0.65	Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	What will I get in 2026 IMO	manifold 2026-06-04	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.65	What will I get in 2026 IMO	manifold 2026-06-04	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.65	US Gas Price on June 22 2026	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will May 2026 U.S. real disposable personal income rise at least 0.2% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-06	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.65	How far will the USA get in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-10	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.65	Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-12	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.65	Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-06-13	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.65	Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.65	Will England become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-12	230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.65	Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	World Series of Poker! Will Daniel Negreanu break even for the 2026 WSOP on his YouTube vlog?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-23	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.65	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $67.50 on July 8, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-07-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)	manifold 2026-05-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Sp500 closes below 7,000 or above 7,500 next?	manifold 2026-05-01	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.65	Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-05-02	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.65	Will "How Go Players Disempower Themselves to AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-02	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.65	Which prediction market CEOs will I meet before 2028?	manifold 2026-05-02	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.65	Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-06	S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.65	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.65	New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.65	Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-12	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.65	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-14	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.65	What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 30th UTC?	manifold 2026-05-15	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in June?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will @jatloe make a comment on this market and @DottedCalculator responds NO to the qeustion that @jatloe made?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-18	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.65	Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%
0.65	Will an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-15	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.65	OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-30	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	Will Bitcoin hit $68,000 or $78,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-31	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	When will Codex hit 6M WAUs?	manifold 2026-06-01	CMQ_039 TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Packaging	71%
0.65	Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.65	Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-02	IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.65	Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-05-31	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.65	Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-02	247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%
0.65	Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-13	236_022 Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame Andrew Yang	Robotics	39%
0.65	Will commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-15	246_018 Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. Alex Wissner-Gross	Energy	36%
0.65	Will I manage to get a question included in Tom Scott's Lateral podcast in 2026?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-16	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.65	Will BTC hit $70k in June after market creation?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-17	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.65	Will GPT-5.6 beat Fable 5?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-22	246_051 GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. Peter Diamandis	AI	35%
0.65	Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-24	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.65	If Stef makes dedicated conditional markets and makes a market about making a spoof ad, will she make the ad and use AI?	manifold 2026-06-23	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	16%
0.65	Will CrowdStrike (CRWD) close higher in its first week after the 4:1 split?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-25	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.65	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-29	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.65	How much will payfornoreason.com raise by the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.65	▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-07-04	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.65	Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.65	Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $90K USD in May 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-27	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.65	What will be the sum of 2026 USAMO MOHS	manifold 2026-04-24	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	Anthropic announces dedicated "Operon" tool for bio/health/other research before June 1, 2026(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-01	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.65	Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 14th UTC?	manifold 2026-05-03	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	How many StackOverflow questions in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.65	Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-06	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.65	Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.65	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.65	Price of July 2026 onion futures as of end of June?	manifold 2026-05-17	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.65	How will reading "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" affect my P(Doom)?	manifold 2026-05-17	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-19	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.65	Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	Will a prediction market-related court case reach the Supreme Court before 2029?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-26	236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.65	which will happen first? (Codeforces Rating)	manifold 2026-05-24	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.65	What Happens First: James Bond actor officially announced or Elon Musk a trillionaire?	manifold 2026-06-01	242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.65	Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.65	Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be at 71K or higher at end of week?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	XRP BELOW $1 THIS WEEK?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.65	Will there be a drone emoji before 2032?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-12	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.65	Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-13	246_042 On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.65	Will one new couple who met at 2026 LO--->Vibecamp festival season have a healthy baby by the first day of August 2027(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-15	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.65	Bitcoin above ... on June 20?	manifold 2026-06-20	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will there be a new war by the 1 of July 2026?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-21	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.65	Will Los Angeles AQI exceed 151 at least once between June 27 – July 3, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-20	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.65	Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-23	245_042 Synthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion) Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.65	[v2] GPT 5.6 release date?	manifold 2026-06-23	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.65	Silver price above $90 in July 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.65	Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-27	238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.65	Will MrBeast have 600,000,000 subscribers by July,24 2026(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.65	Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-07-01	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	How many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.65	US Gas Price on May 1 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.65	Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-04-29	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.65	S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-01	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.65	Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-03	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.65	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley	Energy	46%
0.65	Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.65	Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.65	Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	What will be my ranking in the Summer Metaculus Cup.	manifold 2026-05-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-12	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.65	Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-13	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.65	Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-15	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.65	Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	By when will New Glenn next launch?	manifold 2026-05-29	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.65	GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	245_027 Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026 Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.65	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-30	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.65	Bitcoin price on June 30?	manifold 2026-06-02	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	26%
0.65	Bitcoin price on June 30?	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	Gold price above 4,750.00 in June 2026(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-05	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	What will I get in 2026 IMO	manifold 2026-06-04	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.65	Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	Will June 2026 U.S. average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.65	[Short Fuse] Will Anthropi reset Max users' limit in the next 7 days?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.65	Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-06-13	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Will SpaxeX stock price reach $300 at any point before 2027?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-14	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-21	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.65	Will GPT-5.6 beat Fable 5?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-22	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.65	Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-19	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.65	Will JasonMendoza2008 manage to make 1000 profit solely market making before the end of 2026?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will I work 9/9/6 for the rest of 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.65	Bitcoin price on June 29?	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	Will HIMS close at 50.00 or higher in 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-30	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-28	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.64	Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-23	INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk	AI	48%
0.64	Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.64	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of May 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.64	Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	US Gas Price on May 2 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.64	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.64	Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.64	When will Starship flight 14 happen?	manifold 2026-05-04	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.64	Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	will i get gold at amm 2026(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-05-07	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-08	AUT_008 Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	76%
0.64	US Gas Price average for 11 May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.64	Will any NFL team(s) use significant amounts of AI generated content in their 2026 schedule release video?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-11	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.64	Which of the following will be true about this market as of 2026-05-26 13:00 UTC? [Add answers]	manifold 2026-05-11	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-11	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.64	Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-12	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.64	Will Senate Banking hold a crypto market-structure markup by May 20, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-10	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 9¾(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-13	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-10	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-16	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.64	Change my view: artificial superintelligence is not as serious of a risk as Eliezer Yudkowsky claims it to be.(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-17	IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.64	How will reading "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" affect my P(Doom)?	manifold 2026-05-17	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.64	Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.64	Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-05-24	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-24	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.64	Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.64	By how much will Colombia's 10Y bond yield drop when bond markets open after 5/31/26?	manifold 2026-06-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-31	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-02	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.64	What will be Cryptonite's India rank on CTFtime at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.64	Will May 2026 US average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-06	AI_020 NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases. NVIDIA	Space	36%
0.64	Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-08	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.64	Will Bitcoin be at or above 75k at the end of the month?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-17	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	How many submissions to Arxiv will there be in July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-17	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-19	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.64	In which month will Apple announce a Mac mini with an M5 series chipset?	manifold 2026-06-21	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.64	By when will JAXA's Martian Moons eXploration mission launch?	manifold 2026-06-22	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.64	Will my Trader bonuses exceed 100,000 for the June 2026 season?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-06-22	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC decision in July 2026? [2k added subsidy]	manifold 2026-06-23	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.64	Bitcoin price on June 28?	manifold 2026-06-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will I work 9/9/6 for the rest of 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-29	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	How much will payfornoreason.com raise by the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-28	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-04-23	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-23	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.64	Red vs. Blue button except prediction market	manifold 2026-04-30	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	Anthropic announces dedicated "Operon" tool for bio/health/other research before June 1, 2026(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Which prediction market CEOs will I meet before 2028?	manifold 2026-05-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.64	What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 14th UTC?	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-03	237_021 Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. Alex Finn	Crypto	30%
0.64	Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-06	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	21%
0.64	New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-09	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-13	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-13	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	Will Deno Deploy acknowledge the incidents of 13th of May 2026 on their status page?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-13	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-16	242_026 Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	38%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	230_015 For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.64	Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	What will Australia's total net overseas migration be for FY 25/26?	manifold 2026-05-29	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Will any nobel laureate donate their brain to https://bexorg.com/ by eoy2039?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-28	240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.64	GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-26	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-02	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-04	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.64	[Add options] Conditional on me joining these real-money prediction markets, will I have positive profit after a month?	manifold 2026-06-07	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-07	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-09	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-11	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-06-13	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-13	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-19	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-20	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	GPT-5.6 Outperforms Claude Fable 5 on FrontierMath Tier 4?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-19	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.64	Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-21	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.64	Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.64	By when will JAXA's Martian Moons eXploration mission launch?	manifold 2026-06-22	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-22	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-23	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.64	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $76 on June 29, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-24	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-26	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-27	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-07-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-07-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-28	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.64	Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-26	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.64	What will be the total prize in the third Manifold Prize Drawing?	manifold 2026-04-24	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	9%
0.64	Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-23	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.64	will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-30	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.64	Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Next day with a US average gas price decrease?	manifold 2026-05-03	243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.64	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	22%
0.64	Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.64	Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-10	240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	29%
0.64	Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-14	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.64	Change my view: artificial superintelligence is not as serious of a risk as Eliezer Yudkowsky claims it to be.(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-17	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	S&p500 May 2026 prop bets	manifold 2026-05-17	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.64	Which US political party will be the more "pro-AI" party at the time of the 2028 presidential debates?	manifold 2026-05-18	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-19	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	Will "Convergent Abstraction Hypothesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	When will the Jacobian challenge be solved in Lean?	manifold 2026-05-29	CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis	AI	39%
0.64	Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-26	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.64	Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.64	Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will El Niño develop this year? (as declared by NOAA before 1 December 2026)(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-04	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.64	Will El Niño develop this year? (as declared by NOAA before 1 December 2026)(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-04	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.64	Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-02	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	What will be the lowest value Bitcoin reaches in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-09	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.64	Will OpenAI or Google announce an release a reduction to image generation filters around nudity by EOY 2027?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	When will there be a closed loop life support demonstration on Earth?	manifold 2026-06-14	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.64	When will there be a closed loop life support demonstration on Earth?	manifold 2026-06-14	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.64	Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)	manifold 2026-06-14	246_048 Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.64	Will I make mana on this market?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-16	230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin	Consumer	36%
0.64	If Stef makes dedicated conditional markets and makes a market about making a spoof ad, will she make the ad and use AI?	manifold 2026-06-23	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.64	Will the U.S. Gini coefficient (FRED series GINIALLRH) be lower in 2025 than in 2024?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-25	IND_004 True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... Andrej Karpathy	AI	43%
0.64	Will US average gas price reach … in July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-30	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2030?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-07-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Which model in the Claude 5 series will be publicly released next?	manifold 2026-07-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.64	AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.64	Will a Waymo self-driving car be involved in a fatal accident before July 1, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	22%
0.64	this market will resolve to yes if it closes with a greater than 50% chance of resolving to yes(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-04-24	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.64	US Gas Price on May 1 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.64	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Which of the following will be true about this market as of 2026-05-26 13:00 UTC? [Add answers]	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.64	Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-06	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.64	Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-12	229_014 Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. Brett Adcock	Robotics	35%
0.64	How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?	manifold 2026-05-13	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-13	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.64	Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.64	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Will Bitcoin hit $73,000 or $83,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Will I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-18	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-19	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	47%
0.64	Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-29	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.64	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will anyone beat the 281.85 wpm Monkeytype English 60 record before 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will US average gas price reach … in June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-06-01	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.64	Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-06-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-03	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.64	Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-02	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.64	Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.64	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-07	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-05	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.64	Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-08	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. real disposable personal income rise at least 0.2% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-06	242_049 W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.64	Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.64	When will there be a closed loop life support demonstration on Earth?	manifold 2026-06-14	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.64	Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.64	In which month will Apple announce a Mac mini with an M5 series chipset?	manifold 2026-06-21	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.64	Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-19	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.64	Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC decision in July 2026? [2k added subsidy]	manifold 2026-06-23	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Will the U.S. Gini coefficient (FRED series GINIALLRH) be lower in 2025 than in 2024?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-25	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	Will the U.S. Gini coefficient (FRED series GINIALLRH) be lower in 2025 than in 2024?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-25	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-28	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-25	229_041 Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.' Brett Adcock	Other	37%
0.64	How many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	How many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-01	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-03	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.64	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-08	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market	manifold 2026-05-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.64	Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-13	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-15	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.64	Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-16	230_046 OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. Dave Blundin	AI	43%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in August?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-19	236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	55%
0.64	Robots reliably do my laundry by?	manifold 2026-05-19	236_022 Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame Andrew Yang	Robotics	39%
0.64	Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	By when will New Glenn next launch?	manifold 2026-05-29	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.64	What will Australia's total net overseas migration be for FY 25/26?	manifold 2026-05-29	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	To what extent will Developmental Cognitive Interpretability be successful [Read Updated Description]	manifold 2026-05-29	233_014 Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. Dave Blundin	Biotech/Longevity	32%
0.64	Will anyone beat the 281.85 wpm Monkeytype English 60 record before 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Will a prediction market-related court case reach the Supreme Court before 2029?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-27	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.64	Will US average gas price reach … in June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will US average gas price reach … in June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.64	Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will Bitcoin's biggest single-hour move this week be up or down?	manifold 2026-05-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-01	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%