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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_046 Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independence, pursuing self-sufficiency in critical materials and domestic manufacturing capacity to support Sovereign AI initiatives — extending beyond G7 to mid-sized nations (Estonia... Morgan Stanley	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Which team will win ARML 2026 Division B?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	By how much will the Democrats beat the GOP in the 2026 Massachusetts Governor’s Race?	manifold 2026-05-19	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	2027 French Open - Men’s singles winner?	manifold 2026-05-19	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Who will win the MA-08 democratic primary?	manifold 2026-05-30	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket](market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	58%
0.57	LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-28	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Will The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act make over $100 million at the worldwide box office?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-01	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Manifold Markets says I have 140 Traders right now. By June 7th I will have 60 more.(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will Hunter Biden run for US President during his lifetime?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at LessOnline 2026	manifold 2026-06-05	241_049 Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]	manifold 2026-06-08	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup top 4 variable payout	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Total Goals at the 2026 fifa men’s World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-10	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	Will any major conference issue a ban on scheduling games with Texas Tech as a result of the Sorsby situation in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	14%
0.57	How many more times will Trump publicly praise Allah in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-11	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-11	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	In which groups will the third-placed team advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-12	242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.57	Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-13	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?	manifold 2026-06-13	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-14	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.57	Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-16	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Will there be a VAR/refereeing controversy that causes a team to officially protest a World Cup 2026 group-stage result(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-16	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-16	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	2026 Esports World Cup - Chess winner?	manifold 2026-06-16	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.57	Will France win the world cup(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-20	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Which captain's team will top the money list for the 2026 Your Golf Tour regular season (YouTube golf)?	manifold 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	How many psets does x do?	manifold 2026-06-21	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Norway or Senegal	manifold 2026-06-22	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	How many games will be a draw on June 24?	manifold 2026-06-24	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Switzerland or Caneda	manifold 2026-06-24	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	The Whaleslayer Coinflip V2(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-25	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Got a brand new bed yesterday. Will I have to make a warranty claim by July 17, 2026 (7/17/26)?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-25	229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.57	Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July 2027?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-26	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 10?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-26	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	Ce pica la examenul national de bacalaureat 2026, proba matematica subiectul 3 exercitiul 2 punctul c), pentru mate-info	manifold 2026-06-27	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Will the US Congress extend Trump's 10% global tariffs before they expire on July 24, 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-30	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	How will the 3 Round of 32 matches finish on July 1?	manifold 2026-06-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-07-01	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Who will win the fifa World Cup	manifold 2026-07-02	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will Kalshi or Polymarket be acquired by EOY 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-07-04	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.57	Will Taylor Swift announce she’s pregnant by Swiftmas (Dec. 13)?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-07-04	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will anyone managram me 5000 mana in 1 week?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-07-04	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.57	BRA vs NOR anytime goalscorer	manifold 2026-07-04	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	BRA vs NOR anytime goalscorer	manifold 2026-07-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will Planter drop out by the end of Friday?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-07-06	238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.57	Will Planter drop out by the end of Friday?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-07-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-04-29	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.57	Which country will win the 2026 ICPC World Finals?	manifold 2026-04-28	SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg	Semis/Geopolitics	20%
0.57	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	manifold 2026-04-27	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-26	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.57	Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-24	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.57	Which side will win in "The Prediction Market Debate"?	manifold 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-04-30	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.57	Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Which Bernie Sanders endorsees will win their 2026 primaries?	manifold 2026-05-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will a member of the House of Representatives for the Choktaw Nation be seated by EOY 2031?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-03	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	F1: Who will win the 2026 Lenovo Canadian Grand Prix?	manifold 2026-05-04	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	36%
0.57	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	Will Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 exceed 140 million tonnes?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.57	Will Subnautica 2 have more peak players in the first month of Early Access than Subnautica: Below Zero?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-07	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.57	What time will my 13 year old son leave the house for his paper round on Wednesday 13th May?	manifold 2026-05-11	229_022 Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.57	What will my Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-11	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-14	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.57	How many candidates will take part in the next UK Labour leadership election?	manifold 2026-05-14	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-05-14	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	236_024 Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure Andrew Yang	Real Estate	51%
0.57	USA stage of elimination at fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-16	245_020 Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry Ben Lamm	Other	45%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff	manifold 2026-05-19	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	New fish species (market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-19	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	F1 2026 Monaco Grand Prix Pole Position	manifold 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will the US strike Oman before June 16?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	JD Vance out as VP before...?	manifold 2026-05-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.57	What will trump say this week? May 25th-May 31st (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-26	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Ju Wenjun - Vaishali score in the 2026 FIDE Women World Chess Championship	manifold 2026-05-25	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-01	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-02	229_032 Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	Will "Disclosure Day" earn more than $45M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Days I'll create a market in June?	manifold 2026-06-02	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	F1: BARCELONA-CATALUNY 🇪🇸 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	36%
0.57	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.57	Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-07	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.57	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-09	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.57	Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup top 4 variable payout	manifold 2026-06-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will any major conference issue a ban on scheduling games with Texas Tech as a result of the Sorsby situation in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-09	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Israel hold an election in 2027?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-12	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026	manifold 2026-06-12	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-13	246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	When will Fable/Mythos access be restored to most foreign nationals?	manifold 2026-06-13	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.57	When will Fable/Mythos access be restored to Americans?	manifold 2026-06-13	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?	manifold 2026-06-13	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	Claude 6 Release Date	manifold 2026-06-14	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.57	How many years between Starship 50 and Starship 500?	manifold 2026-06-14	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	34%
0.57	Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-15	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.57	When will U.S. government's export control directive on Fable be lifted?	manifold 2026-06-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	2026 Esports World Cup - Chess winner?	manifold 2026-06-16	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	First scorer winning rate World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.57	Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-16	241_059 Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems Peter Diamandis	Energy	54%
0.57	Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?	manifold 2026-06-20	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	29%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will there be at least one 4–0 knockout match AND fewer than 8 total 3–0 knockout matches?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-21	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-21	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-22	242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator)	Space	46%
0.57	What will be the total number of FIFA world cup markets created on Manifold by July 15?	manifold 2026-06-21	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.57	Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-23	236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin	AI	36%
0.57	Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-23	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Which scores will happen on 24 June? FIFA world cup	manifold 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	2027 US Open - Men’s singles winner?	manifold 2026-06-26	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	How many World Cup games will be decided by penalty shootout in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-28	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.57	Will a meteor hit earth tomorrow?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-28	241_040 A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.57	What will be the sum of my AP Scores this.July?	manifold 2026-06-27	233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price	Education	39%
0.57	Will this century's World Cup winners advance to the round of 16?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2027 than in 2026, according to Gallup?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-07-01	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	22%
0.57	😂 MaKe Me LaUgH! 😂 [ADD OPTIONS]	manifold 2026-07-01	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	32%
0.57	Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-07-01	246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	What the total amount of mana will manifolders managram me?	manifold 2026-06-30	241_020 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers Eric Schmidt	Energy	49%
0.57	巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-30	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will USA beat Belgium? \| ⚽ 2026 FIFA World Cup(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-07-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Kalshi or Polymarket be acquired by EOY 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-07-04	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.57	Free Lottery (dualism)(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-07-04	232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz	AI	51%
0.57	Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-07-06	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.57	Trump announce end of military operations against Iran by…? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-04-28	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	21%
0.57	Will the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby finish in under 2:02.00?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will "Considerations around career costs of politic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Which Party will win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?	manifold 2026-05-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before June?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.57	Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	How many members will the UK Liberal Democrats have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-02	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-01	231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Poland (GCT 1st event)?	manifold 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman	AI	18%
0.57	Will May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-04	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2027? (May 5)(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	Altar of Champions winner? (Grubby's WC3 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-05-07	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-09	243_032 Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.57	Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.57	Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	On which of these days in May will WTI Crude Oil Futures Price rise?	manifold 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.57	China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-12	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.57	Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Who will be Riau rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-13	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Who will win the T20 series between Australia and Bangladesh in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-13	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	will al nassr win the saudi league(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-05-13	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	test-b(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Will there be a red card in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-14	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Will Trump or Biden Live longer?	manifold 2026-05-15	233_015 Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	25%
0.57	Will Trump or Biden Live longer?	manifold 2026-05-15	235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. Elon Musk	Robotics	16%
0.57	Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-15	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	47%
0.57	Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-16	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-16	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.57	USA stage of elimination at fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-16	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	English Premier League — Matchweek 37 (All fixtures)	manifold 2026-05-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	What gender should Terminator2 have? [Convince the Machine #12]	manifold 2026-05-14	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-30	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Will The Mandalorian and Grogu experience a 60.0% or greater drop in its second weekend at the domestic box office?(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on July 1st?	manifold 2026-05-28	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.57	If Felix Gall signs for Lidl Trek for the 2027 season, will he win at least 1 UCI race for Lidl Trek before 2030?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	What will trump say this week? May 25th-May 31st (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-26	237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	78%
0.57	Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-31	244_015 AV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industry Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	38%
0.57	Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt	AI	43%
0.57	Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Who will be in Thinking Basketball's top 10 NBA players of 2026 when healthy? (add answers is on)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Hack Club Stardance add a gambling/feature that resembles probability-based games(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-04	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.57	Manifold Markets says I have 140 Traders right now. By June 7th I will have 60 more.(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	How many of the so-called "Big 6" will finish in the Premier League top 6 in 2026-27?	manifold 2026-06-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Who will win poker at Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-06	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Best meme competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 351(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-08	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.57	Will "Supergirl" earn more than $50M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-08	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.57	How many times will Trump be impeached during his second term?	manifold 2026-06-09	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-06-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at SummerCamp 2026	manifold 2026-06-10	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 20x subscription on June 23 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-10	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will any major conference issue a ban on scheduling games with Texas Tech as a result of the Sorsby situation in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_041 Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit. Peter Diamandis	Space	45%
0.57	In which groups will the third-placed team advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-11	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-13	INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt	Energy	47%
0.57	Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-14	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Starmer out by the end of this week(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-17	248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	34%
0.57	Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-17	242_038 Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	23%
0.57	Will I get chicken katsu tonight?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-06-18	243_029 Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	48%
0.57	Free Lottery (dark matter & banana)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-21	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	9%
0.57	Who will be voted the favorite among the first 10 traders on this market?	manifold 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.57	Norway or Senegal	manifold 2026-06-22	241_034 One or two frontier AI companies in Europe Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.57	Guru World Cup Profit Up/Down by End of June(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-23	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Will Messi play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-24	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-24	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-24	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-24	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-06-23	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July 2027?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-26	229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis	Energy	21%
0.57	will ayan nayak jmo qual in the big 27(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-27	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-28	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Ce pica la examenul national de bacalaureat 2026, proba matematica subiectul 3 exercitiul 2 punctul c), pentru mate-info	manifold 2026-06-27	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Will there be a conflict in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections?”(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-26	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	How many Trump districts will House Democrats win in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-29	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?	manifold 2026-06-29	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.57	Will this century's World Cup winners advance to the round of 16?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-29	230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.57	Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-26	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.57	Will I run further than @draaglom in July?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-07-01	231_036 Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on August 1st?	manifold 2026-07-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	How restrictive will Fable's new safeguards be, according to manifold?	manifold 2026-07-01	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	How many problems written by me will appear on the 2027 ELMO?	manifold 2026-06-30	234_006 Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Fable enabled for Australians before July 17th?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-29	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	What will be the tipping-point contest for the Senate in 2026?	manifold 2026-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	will i get a 5 on ap physics 1(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-07-02	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Will Portugal vs Spain have over 6.5 total combined goals and cards? (Includes Extra Time)(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-07-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Do you like 66% odds?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-07-06	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.57	Will a snap election be called in the UK this year?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-07-06	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	USA v Belgium knockout match prop bets	manifold 2026-07-06	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	Days I'll create a market in July?	manifold 2026-07-02	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	What will be the Opening Weekend Domestic Gross of 'The Devil Wears Prada 2' (2026)?	manifold 2026-04-29	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-04-29	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-04-28	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	manifold 2026-04-27	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	Price of gas on Election Day?	manifold 2026-04-25	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.57	What will be the rating of the Enid Oklahoma Tornado (2026)	manifold 2026-04-24	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.57	The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-04-23	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	VALVE?!(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-23	234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin	Defense	36%
0.57	Will "Considerations around career costs of politic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	29%
0.57	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	35%
0.57	How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	23%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Poland (GCT 1st event)?	manifold 2026-05-04	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.57	Will Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 exceed 140 million tonnes?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-04	242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.57	NHL Stanley Cup Round 2 Series Winner 2026	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.57	Will Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	AUT_018 Level 1 customer support sector functionally extinct and replaced by autonomous voice/text agents within 2-3 years, slashing operational costs by up to 50%; 2026 industry-defining blockbuster M&A deal exceeding $500 billion in AI sector; substantive ea... Jason Calacanis	Labor/Jobs	29%
0.57	Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will "Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Onesh..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	How many weeks will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?	manifold 2026-05-07	S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	25%
0.57	Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-09	242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.57	What will be my ranking in the Summer Metaculus Cup.	manifold 2026-05-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-09	244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Sum of my AP scores	manifold 2026-05-08	233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price	Education	39%
0.57	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.57	Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-11	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Australia's 2026-27 Budget - Props	manifold 2026-05-11	234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	On which of these days in May will WTI Crude Oil Futures Price rise?	manifold 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will the Trump-branded Trump Mobile Phone actually exist before the next Presidential election?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-12	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-15	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will the US announce an arms sale to Taiwan of more than $10 billion dollars value between May and September 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	USA stage of elimination at fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-16	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-17	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-16	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.57	Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-18	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	32%
0.57	[short fuse] What was the source of the explosion-like sound heard in New England? [add responses]	manifold 2026-05-30	241_006 Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom Eric Schmidt	AI	79%
0.57	JD Vance out as VP before...?	manifold 2026-05-28	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	How many people will end up with a NSBA4 Combine Score equal to 15	manifold 2026-05-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Who will win the Washington 3rds House election in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Trump's approval rating hit 37.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of June 2027?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-24	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026	ai_regulatory_pause	5%
0.57	Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-01	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will there be any news about another assassination attempt on Donald Trump this month?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	Will Hack Club Stardance add a gambling/feature that resembles probability-based games(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-04	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	Will Iran fully enrich uranium stockpiles to a level of 90% before July?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-04	INF_045 Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%. Morgan Stanley	Energy	51%
0.57	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Who will make Indonesia's IOAI 2026 Team?	manifold 2026-06-05	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.57	Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Days I'll create a market in June?	manifold 2026-06-02	229_043 Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	40%
0.57	Days I'll create a market in June?	manifold 2026-06-02	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.57	More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-08	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	27%
0.57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-10	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-09	229_024 Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve. Brett Adcock	Robotics	41%
0.57	In which groups will the third-placed team advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026	manifold 2026-06-12	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.57	Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-13	237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn	AI	43%
0.57	Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-14	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	2026 US Open Prop Bets	manifold 2026-06-15	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	2026 US Open Prop Bets	manifold 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.57	Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-15	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will "Jackass: Best and Last" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weeken(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-15	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.57	Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-15	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.57	Export controls on Fable 5 get rescinded within 72 hours of the release of GPT 5.6?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-16	IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	34%
0.57	Which Scores Will Happen on June 16th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	League of Legends MSI 2026 winner	manifold 2026-06-18	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Ralsei Transition by the end of Deltarune?	manifold 2026-06-18	229_013 The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. Brett Adcock	AI	73%
0.57	Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?	manifold 2026-06-20	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-21	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Golf: Who will win the 2027 US Open?	manifold 2026-06-22	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	What will be the total number of FIFA world cup markets created on Manifold by July 15?	manifold 2026-06-21	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus](market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-24	243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	45%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus](market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-24	INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	58%
0.57	CR7 VS Messi in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Combined score of the 6 matches on 25 June at the fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Free Lottery (Great Debate)(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-25	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Free Lottery (Great Debate)(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-25	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?	manifold 2026-06-29	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Will the US Congress extend Trump's 10% global tariffs before they expire on July 24, 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-30	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Wii Romania have a new goverment by end of July?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-30	247_052 AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	42%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 5x subscription on July 08 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-07-02	234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	38%
0.57	Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-07-03	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be accessible in a subscription on July 31 2026?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-07-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be accessible in a subscription on July 31 2026?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-07-03	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	Two-way animal communication awarded before...	manifold 2026-07-03	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	Two-way animal communication awarded before...	manifold 2026-07-03	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Will Brazil lead Norway at the end of 90 minutes (including stoppage time) on July 5, 2026 (7/5/26)?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	9%
0.57	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-04-28	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.57	Sub-1:58 marathon before LA Olympics?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-04-23	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	21%
0.57	Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?	manifold 2026-05-03	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Which college will get 3rd place on the 2025 Putnam exam?	manifold 2026-05-03	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz escorts prop bets (before May 7th)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	2026 F1 Canada Qualification who qualifies better in each team	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	70%
0.57	Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	50%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-04	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.57	Will the Fredie Mac US 30-year fixed-rate average drop below 5.75% before Nov 1, 2026.(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-06	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.57	test-a(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-08	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	test-a(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-08	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Sum of my AP scores	manifold 2026-05-08	236_016 College premium is quickly evaporating Andrew Yang	Education	51%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	78%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.57	Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-11	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.57	Australia's 2026-27 Budget - Props	manifold 2026-05-11	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-11	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-12	240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	35%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-12	230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	How many candidates will take part in the next UK Labour leadership election?	manifold 2026-05-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-05-15	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Will Trump or Biden Live longer?	manifold 2026-05-15	234_037 Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-15	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-15	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Mina the Hollower MEGAMARKET	manifold 2026-05-16	229_011 The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. Brett Adcock	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Will Thomas Massie say Trump should be impeached before the end of 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-17	230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-18	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-19	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-30	240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	8%
0.57	Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk	AI	48%
0.57	When will the next MLB CBA be signed	manifold 2026-05-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	When will the next MLB CBA be signed	manifold 2026-05-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on July 1st?	manifold 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will I Pass My Exams or Will I Pass Away?	manifold 2026-05-28	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	If Felix Gall signs for Lidl Trek for the 2027 season, will he win at least 1 UCI race for Lidl Trek before 2030?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	25%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Who will win the men's 2026 FIBA 3x3 World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	What countries will Donald Trump visit in the remainder of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei	AI	16%
0.57	Which site will have the highest average team score at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-25	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-24	230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-01	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-03	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	Will "Disclosure Day" earn more than $45M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.57	Will Hack Club Stardance add a gambling/feature that resembles probability-based games(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-04	248_007 We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	37%
0.57	Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will "My favorite depiction of utopia" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-03	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Who will make Indonesia's IOAI 2026 Team?	manifold 2026-06-05	IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	23%
0.57	What will be the highest scoring draw in the FIFA World Cup group stage?	manifold 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	World Cup Prop Bets: Qatar v Switzerland June 13 (add your own answers)	manifold 2026-06-06	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-07	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-06	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.57	Will "Supergirl" earn more than $50M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-08	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-09	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	World Cup 2026 prop bets	manifold 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-13	239_022 Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency Elon Musk	AI	36%
0.57	Will I drop out of undergrad?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-14	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	How many years between Starship 50 and Starship 500?	manifold 2026-06-14	231_046 Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-15	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	2026 US Open Prop Bets	manifold 2026-06-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner concede 5 or fewer total goals throughout the tournament?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Which Scores Will Happen on June 17th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-16	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?	manifold 2026-06-18	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-16	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-19	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will there be exactly 6 or 7 knockout matches ending 3–0?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-19	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will there be at least one 4–0 knockout match AND fewer than 8 total 3–0 knockout matches?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-19	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will the "5000 Gazans" market bankrupt @Chumchulum?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-17	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.57	Will the "5000 Gazans" market bankrupt @Chumchulum?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Putin lose his position as President of Russia before the end of his term, May 6, 2030?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-20	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-22	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	Will Mbappe play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-06-24	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	Will the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-24	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.57	Will Kenya get a chess international master within 1year?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-24	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by December 31?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-06-24	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-26	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-26	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.57	Will a commenter post a link to a video showing Micah Lasher doing a magic trick?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-25	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Will Manuel Adorni leave the Argentine government before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-27	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 6?(market prob: 100%)	manifold 2026-06-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will X happen at the Pride Match (Iran v Egypt, Seattle June 26)	manifold 2026-06-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Brazil v Japan knockout match prop bets	manifold 2026-06-28	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	What will be the sum of my AP Scores this.July?	manifold 2026-06-27	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-26	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-30	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will "Who Got Breasts First and How We Got Them" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Deltarune Chapter 6 have a hospital dark world?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-29	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	😂 MaKe Me LaUgH! 😂 [ADD OPTIONS]	manifold 2026-07-01	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	What will be the tipping-point contest for the Senate in 2026?	manifold 2026-07-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-07-02	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	On what days will there be an incident in Claude, in the first week of July 2026?	manifold 2026-07-01	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.57	When will Fable be available on a subscription again?	manifold 2026-07-03	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	will i get a 5 on ap physics 1(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-07-02	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Will there be at least one more peace talk by the US and Iran before August 1?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-07-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-07-06	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Will a super-injunction relating to Sir Keir Starmer be revealed in 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-04-29	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	What is the top sport? [Resolves to poll]	manifold 2026-04-28	244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	50%
0.57	Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-04-28	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Sum of AP score	manifold 2026-04-28	236_016 College premium is quickly evaporating Andrew Yang	Education	51%
0.57	If this person is a candidate for WA-03, will a Democrat win the house seat in the 2026 midterms?	manifold 2026-04-26	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Which team will win Marble League 2026?	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Price of gas on Election Day?	manifold 2026-04-25	242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	48%
0.57	When Will Mojtaba Khamenei be first be shown alive on video?	manifold 2026-04-23	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	VALVE?!(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-23	240_007 Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	38%
0.57	Who will win the Second Prize Drawing?	manifold 2026-05-01	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	How many members will the UK Conservative Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?	manifold 2026-05-03	S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026	macro_recession	20%
0.57	Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will "Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Onesh..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-05	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10](market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-06	238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque	Media/Ads	25%
0.57	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10](market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-09	240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	29%
0.57	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.57	Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-14	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Stephen Colbert run for president in 2028?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-15	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.57	Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-16	231_005 Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.57	On what days will I be productive [rest of the month]	manifold 2026-05-16	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.57	Nürburgring 24 Hours Prop bets	manifold 2026-05-16	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.57	Will Labour get more than 200 seats in the next UK House of Commons election?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-15	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	What gender should Terminator2 have? [Convince the Machine #12]	manifold 2026-05-14	242_050 Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain Dave Blundin	Robotics	42%
0.57	Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-17	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	Resolves to Square root of a random number between 1-10,000(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-30	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Will "Trees are mostly made of air and a generaliza..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-30	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-29	AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman	AI	33%
0.57	Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-29	241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time Eric Schmidt	Robotics	12%
0.57	Will Project Hail Mary finish the year as the highest rated 2026 cinematic release on Letterboxd?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-27	231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	How many people will end up with a NSBA4 Combine Score equal to 15	manifold 2026-05-27	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	Will "The Odyssey" earn more than $120M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Nash Pit, Manifest 2026: What choice will Contestant A make?	manifold 2026-05-24	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Nash Pit, Manifest 2026: What choice will Contestant A make?	manifold 2026-05-24	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%