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233_015predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#233 "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
24.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2070-06-01 – 2070-06-30
Edges in / out
9 / 0
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. | Well, infinite longevity, too. Yeah. >> Exactly. And so, I mean, they can't be more optimistic about the future.

Watch events: Life Biosciences ER-100 Phase 1 first readout (likely late 2026/early 2027)

Verbatim quote

From episode "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233"
Well, infinite longevity, too. Yeah. >> Exactly. And so, I mean, they can't be more optimistic about the future.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04
κ (discount)
0.881
Brier
0.0470
excellent
Hits / Misses
11 / 0
of 16 resolved
Hit rate
68.8%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-102026-06-07
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 24.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 10 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingLife Biosciences ER-100 Phase 1 trial completes dosing of first cohort with safety readout
    How: Life Biosciences or co-sponsor publishes Phase 1 first-cohort completion or interim safety data for partial cellular reprogramming therapy ER-100 (NAION/optic neuropathies) via press release, ClinicalTrials.gov, or peer-reviewed paper
    Source: https://lifespan.io/first-human-cellular-reprogramming-trial-cleared-by-the-fda/conf 70%
  2. 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingSecond independent FDA-cleared partial-reprogramming or epigenetic-rejuvenation human trial enters dosing
    How: FDA grants IND clearance and dosing begins for a second distinct partial-reprogramming or epigenetic-age-reversal therapy from a different sponsor (e.g., Altos Labs, NewLimit, Retro Biosciences); confirmed by FDA, ClinicalTrials.gov, or sponsor PR
    Source: https://longevity.technology/news/fda-clears-first-human-trial-of-epigenetic-reprogramming-therapy/conf 60%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingPeer-reviewed human study demonstrates statistically significant biological-age reversal of >=2 years via epigenetic clock (Horvath/GrimAge/PhenoAge)
    How: Peer-reviewed publication in Cell, Nature, Science, Aging Cell, or Nat Med showing post-treatment biological age regressed >=2 years vs baseline on validated multi-CpG epigenetic clock, in randomized or placebo-controlled human cohort
    Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/this-method-to-reverse-cellular-aging-is-about-to-be-tested-in-humans/conf 55%
  4. 2032-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingKurzweil's 2033 longevity escape velocity (LEV) target reached or publicly retracted
    How: Either: (a) consensus statement from longevity scientists (e.g., Sinclair, Church, de Grey, Sinclair-led panel) declaring LEV achieved for treated cohort, OR (b) Kurzweil publicly revises 2033 prediction by >5 years
    Source: https://x.com/PeterDiamandis/status/2040724511968883122conf 35%
  5. 2030-01-01 → 2040-12-31pendingCascade: First approved (FDA/EMA) therapy with primary indication of 'age-related decline' or 'biological aging' rather than discrete disease
    How: FDA or EMA grants marketing authorization to a drug, gene therapy, or cellular therapy whose approved label explicitly references aging, age-reversal, or healthspan as the indication (not just AD, NAION, sarcopenia, etc.)
    Source: https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2026/02/the-first-clinical-trial-of-partial-reprogramming-will-start-soon/conf 30%
  6. 2040-01-01 → 2060-12-31pendingCascade: Generation born 2010-2025 reaches median life expectancy >=100 in actuarial projections
    How: SSA, CDC, UN World Population Prospects, or major reinsurer (Swiss Re, Munich Re) publishes cohort life-expectancy projection placing median age-at-death of US/EU 2010-2025 birth cohort >=100 years
    Source: https://www.diamandis.com/blog/longevity-escape-velocityconf 25%

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 25%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-07T22:10:23Z24.7%-12.9pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.247 blend=0.247 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.5072484823593403,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3758387666711569,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-30",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.24717201230801725,
  "posterior_logit": -1.1137522653492924,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.24717201230801725,
  "blended_posterior": 0.24717201230801725,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.6%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 38.8% → 37.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.8%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 41.1% → 38.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.1%-4.9pp
Network propagation: 46.0% → 41.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z46.0%-6.5pp
Network propagation: 52.4% → 46.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z52.4%-12.6pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 52.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.650+0.313
prereq245_025
Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industryBen Lamm
80.2%0.6500.050+0.280
prereq235_029
Big pharma companies will transition into longevity businessPeter Diamandis
52.9%0.6500.050+0.117
prereq235_027
Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $Peter Diamandis
37.8%0.6500.050+0.082
prereq245_014
Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a locBen Lamm
41.3%0.6500.050+0.056

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq245_025Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of editsBiotech/Longevity
prereq235_027Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq235_029Big pharma companies will transition into longevity business in next 3 years.Biotech/Longevity
prereq245_014Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered speciesBiotech/Longevity
prereq245_024Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)Biotech/Longevity
prereq245_027Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026Biotech/Longevity
prereq245_003Colossal's $10B valuation is massively undervaluedMarkets/Stocks
prereqCMQ_006Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade.Biotech/Longevity
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.569manifoldWill Trump or Biden Live longer?mentionspending2026-05-15

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "AI's going to like give us superpowers. We're going to take over the world.\" >> Well, infinite longevity, too. Yeah. >> Exactly. And so, I mean, they can't be more optimistic about the future.",
  "to_year": 2100,
  "verbatim": "Well, infinite longevity, too. Yeah. >> Exactly. And so, I mean, they can't be more optimistic about the future.",
  "conv_cues": "infinite longevity, too",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2040,
  "timeframe": "future (within current kids' lifetimes)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "245_025",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T13:04:02.341521+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "245_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-07T22:10:23.602300+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "235_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Life Biosciences ER-100 Phase 1 trial completes dosing of first cohort with safety readout",
      "source": "https://lifespan.io/first-human-cellular-reprogramming-trial-cleared-by-the-fda/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Life Biosciences or co-sponsor publishes Phase 1 first-cohort completion or interim safety data for partial cellular reprogramming therapy ER-100 (NAION/optic neuropathies) via press release, ClinicalTrials.gov, or peer-reviewed paper"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Colossal's $10B valuation is massively undervalued",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "245_003",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Second independent FDA-cleared partial-reprogramming or epigenetic-rejuvenation human trial enters dosing",
      "source": "https://longevity.technology/news/fda-clears-first-human-trial-of-epigenetic-reprogramming-therapy/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA grants IND clearance and dosing begins for a second distinct partial-reprogramming or epigenetic-age-reversal therapy from a different sponsor (e.g., Altos Labs, NewLimit, Retro Biosciences); confirmed by FDA, ClinicalTrials.gov, or sponsor PR"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Big pharma companies will transition into longevity business in next 3 years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_029",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-09
... (truncated)