Validations Queue
108,318 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 15 of 216, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.71 | Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | |
| 0.71 | Will Elon Musk ever reach a net worth of 1.5 trillion?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.71 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.71 | Will the distributed training of AI be illegal before 2028(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-01 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.70 | Humans have consciousness [Convince the Machine #3](market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | |
| 0.70 | Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.70 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.70 | Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-15 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.70 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 28% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-07-06 | INF_031 The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight — alignment and safety mechanisms are being outpaced by infrastructure buildout velocity. Dario Amodei | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.70 | Artemis III launches before 2029?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis | Space | 18% | |
| 0.70 | Humanoid robot walking around me within three years?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-06 | AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 33% | ||
| 0.70 | Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.70 | Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.70 | Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.70 | Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | ||
| 0.70 | Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_002 Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything Dave Blundin | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 11% | ||
| 0.70 | Will I think OpenAI was being honest about their structure in 2025?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | ||
| 0.70 | Will Anthropic file a therapeutic patent before July 2029?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.70 | Will the distributed training of AI be illegal before 2028(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-07-06 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | ||
| 0.70 | Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. Demis Hassabis | AI/AGI | 29% | |
| 0.70 | Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 245_001 Synthetic biology paired with AI will be the most transformative technology in human history Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.70 | Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-03 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% |