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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.70	What close prices will the S&P500 hit in June 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.70	Towards Healthy Evolution: Exploring the Role and Mechanisms of Human-Agent Interaction in Self-Evolving Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	Towards Healthy Evolution: Exploring the Role and Mechanisms of Human-Agent Interaction in Self-Evolving Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Optimizing the Cost-Quality Tradeoff of Agentic Theorem Provers in Lean	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	What Is My Robot Thinking? Design Considerations for Transparent and Trustworthy Shared Autonomy	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	A Regret Minimization Framework on Preference Learning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.70	SafeRun: Enabling Determinism in LLM Planning for Running	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Instrumental convergence and power-seeking	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Quantum Global Variational Learning for Quantum Error Correction	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Self-Harness: Harnesses That Improve Themselves	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	EEVEE: Towards Test-time Prompt Learning in the Real World for Self-Improving Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Understanding and mitigating the risks of OpenClaw for non-technical users: A practical guide with Skill	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_026 Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. Dave Blundin	AI	38%
0.70	Role-Agent: Bootstrapping LLM Agents via Dual-Role Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Event-Driven Reinforcement Learning Enables Long-Horizon Control in Semiconductor Fabrication	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	LLM-Guided Neural Architecture Search for Robust Co-Design of Physical Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Spiking Neural Network inference on FPGAs with hls4ml	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	A Spiking Neural Architecture for Coordinating Arm and Locomotor Control	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Sovereign Assurance Boundary: Certificate-Bound Admission for Agentic Infrastructure	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Fibration Trees: A Unified Approach to Multi-Robot Motion Planning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	When will there be humanoid robots doing paid work outdoors in the US?	manifold 2026-06-12	229_011 The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. Brett Adcock	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.70	Toward Instructions-as-Code: Understanding the Impact of Instruction Files on Agentic Pull Requests	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	An LLM System for Autonomous Variational Quantum Circuit Design	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Topical Phase Transitions in Artificial Intelligence Research: Large-Scale Evidence and an Early-Warning Signature for Emerging Topics	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.70	When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters	manifold 2026-06-13	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.70	When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters	manifold 2026-06-13	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.70	Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-13	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	LabOSBench: Benchmarking Computer Use Agents for Scientific Instrument Control	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.70	How to Detect and Measure the AI Dangers to Democracy	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	SPICE: Synergy and Partial Information Based Curriculum Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	Enhancing Quantum Machine Learning with Anyons	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	WaveSync: Constrained Wavefront Optimization for Synchronized Co-Speech Gestures in Humanoid Robots	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.70	A Formal Resilience Framework for Cyber-Physical Embodied Systems under Device-Level Cyberattacks	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	ATHENA: Accelerated Multi-Task Heterogeneous Influence Functions for Robot Data Curation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Knowledge Reutilization in Meta-Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	PseudoBench: Measuring How Agentic Auto-Research Fuels Pseudoscience	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	OPD-Evolver: Cultivating Holistic Agent Evolver via On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	GateMem: Benchmarking Memory Governance in Multi-Principal Shared-Memory Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.70	StreamKL: Fast and Memory-Efficient KL Divergence for Boosting Attention Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	The Algorithmic-Human Manager: AI, Apps, and Workers in the Indian Gig Economy	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_006 Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	56%
0.70	ORAgentBench: Can LLM Agents Solve Challenging Operations Research Tasks End to End?	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Entropy Estimation in Multi-Qutrit Systems via Variational and Classical Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	A Model-Driven Approach for Developing Families of Reinforcement Learning Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Managing Procedural Memory in LLM Agents: Control, Adaptation, and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	AI-Assisted Help-Seeking Trajectories in Programming Education from an SRL-Informed Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	AI-Assisted Help-Seeking Trajectories in Programming Education from an SRL-Informed Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.70	Governance Decay: How Context Compaction Silently Erases Safety Constraints in Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Counterfactual learning of new adaptive instructional policies using logged data	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	LaGO: Latent Action Guidance for Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	The Latent Bridge: A Continuous Slow-Fast Channel for Real-Time Game Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Measuring User's Mental Models of Speech Translation in Human-AI Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Qwen-AgentWorld: Language World Models for General Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.70	AI Fiction in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?	manifold 2026-06-25	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.70	Autodata: An agentic data scientist to create high quality synthetic data	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Agentic System as Compressor: Quantifying System Intelligence in Bits	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.70	Why Multi-Step Tool-Use Reinforcement Learning Collapses and How Supervisory Signals Fix It	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Beyond One-Size-Fits-All: Diagnosis-Driven Online Reinforcement Learning with Offline Priors	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Project Auto-World: Towards Automated Benchmarking of Neural Relational Reasoners	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Beyond Next-Observation Prediction: Agent-Authored World Modeling for Sequential Decision Making	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Bridging Talk and Thought: Understanding Dialogue Dynamics Across Collaborative Problem-Solving Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Agentic Analysis for Agentic Infrastructure: An LLM-Powered Pipeline for Comparative Governance of DAO and Corporate AI Protocols	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	Autodata: An agentic data scientist to create high quality synthetic data	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will Elon Musk ever reach a net worth of 1.5 trillion?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-27	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	14%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Forensic Trajectory Signatures for Agent Memory Poisoning Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Think in English, Answer in Korean: Efficient Adaptation of Multilingual Tool-Using Agents	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Why Solve It Twice? Hierarchical Accumulation of Skills for Transfer-Efficient ML Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.70	Scaling Up Thermodynamic AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 5?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Distributed Attacks in Persistent-State AI Control	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	PhysMani: Physics-principled 3D World Model for Dynamic Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	SAB-LVLM: Significance-Aware Binarization for Large Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.70	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	meta beats estimates but soaring ai spending rattles investors 1091449.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.70	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.98.0	github_release 2026-05-04	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	Contextual Multi-Objective Optimization: Rethinking Objectives in Frontier AI Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	AfriVox-v2: A Domain-Verticalized Benchmark for In-the-Wild African Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	When Correct Isn't Usable: Improving Structured Output Reliability in Small Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Recursive Agent Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Visual Fingerprints for LLM Generation Comparison	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Novelty-based Tree-of-Thought Search for LLM Reasoning and Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Federation of Experts: Communication Efficient Distributed Inference for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Understanding diffusion models requires rethinking (again) generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.70	AssistDLO: Assistive Teleoperation for Deformable Linear Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Which prediction markets IPO in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.70	MEME: Multi-entity & Evolving Memory Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Do Enterprise Systems Need Learned World Models? The Importance of Context to Infer Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Do Enterprise Systems Need Learned World Models? The Importance of Context to Infer Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Multi-Narrow Transformation as a Single-Model Ensemble: Boundary Conditions, Mechanisms, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.70	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.70	Distinguishing performance gains from learning when using generative AI	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.70	A Hierarchical Language Model with Predictable Scaling Laws and Provable Benefits of Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Characterizing Universal Object Representations Across Vision Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.70	MARLIN: Multi-Agent Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning for Sustainable LLM Inference in Cloud Datacenters	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	Controlling Logical Collapse in LLMs via Algebraic Ontology Projection over F2	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Position: Behavioural Assurance Cannot Verify the Safety Claims Governance Now Demands	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.70	Slower Generalization, Faster Memorization: A Sweet Spot in Algorithmic Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	An Amortized Efficiency Threshold for Comparing Neural and Heuristic Solvers in Combinatorial Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.70	Lang2MLIP: End-to-End Language-to-Machine Learning Interatomic Potential Development with Autonomous Agentic Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Position: Weight Space Should Be a First-Class Generative AI Modality	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	The Expressive Power of Low Precision Softmax Transformers with (Summarized) Chain-of-Thought	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Temporal Stability and Few-Shot Prompting in Math Task Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.70	Enhancing Multi-Agent Communication through Attention Steering with Context Relevance	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	How Reliable Are AI Attackers Against a Fixed Vulnerable Target? A 400-Run Empirical Study of LLM Penetration Testing Consistency	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Agora: Toward Autonomous Bug Detection in Production-Level Consensus Protocols with LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	OmniMatBench: A Human-Calibrated Multimodal Reasoning Benchmark Across 19 Materials Science Subfields	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	COMPOSE: Composing Future Theorems from Citations and Formal Structure	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will my YouTube Channel have more than 15 subscribers at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.70	Multi-Agent Computer Use	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	64%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Towards World Models in Biomedical Research	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.70	LLMCodec: Adapting Video Codecs for Efficient Weight Compression of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Human Oversight and Overload: Two Hidden and Costly Burdens of AI-Assisted Software Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.70	Safe Embodied AI for Long-horizon Tasks: A Cross-layer Analysis of Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Less is MoE: Trimming Experts in Domain-Specialist Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk	AI	13%
0.70	Auditing Training Data in Domain-adapted LLMs: LoRA-MINT	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will Bitcoin be at 71K or higher at end of week?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Anthropic cease operations or be acquired for less than $500 billion before 2034?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-08	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	Self-Explainability in Self-Adaptive and Self-Organising Systems: Status and Research Directions	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	Optimizing Energy-based Neural Network Training with Coherent Ising Machine	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Introducing multiplex semantic networks as multifaceted representations of creative associative knowledge across multilingual samples	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	HARBOR: A Harness Framework for Agentic Robot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Large-scale semantic mapping of learner agency and autonomy reveals what measurement and generative AI research overlook	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Detecting Knowledge Gaps from Conversational AI Interactions Using Curriculum Prerequisite Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.70	What Spatial Memory Must Store: Occlusion as the Test for Language-Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	ASTRA-sim 3.0: Next-Level Distributed Machine Learning Simulations via High-Fidelity GPU and Infrastructure Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Which LoRA? An Empirical Study on the Effectiveness of LoRA Techniques During Multilingual Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	GuideWalk: Learning Unified Autonomous Navigation and Locomotion for Humanoid Robots across Versatile Terrains	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	When will AI execute most of my research?	manifold 2026-06-09	232_005 Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. Ben Horowitz	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.70	Goal-Autopilot: A Verifiable Anti-Fabrication Firewall for Unattended Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	On The Effectiveness-Fluency Trade-Off In LLM Conditioning: A Systematic Study	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	When will there be humanoid robots doing paid work outdoors in the US?	manifold 2026-06-12	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.70	A Three-Layer Framework for AI in Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Multi-Modal Agents for Power Distribution Defect Detection: An Evaluation of Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	WISE: A Long-Horizon Agent in Minecraft with Why-Which Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	SERF: Spatiotemporal Environment and Robot Feature Map for Long-Horizon Mobile Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-13	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-15	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Stable Menus of Public Goods: AI-Enabled Progress	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Energy-Efficient Arm Reaching for a Humanoid Robot via Deep Reinforcement Learning with Identified Power Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	A Neuro-Symbolic Approach to Strategy Synthesis for Strategic Logics	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Position: Coding Benchmarks Are Misaligned with Agentic Software Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.70	SEAGym: An Evaluation Environment for Self-Evolving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Distributed General-Purpose Agent Networks: Architecture, Key Mechanisms, and Prototypes	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.70	Nothing from Something: Can a Language Model Discover 0?	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Continual Self-Improvement with Lightweight Experiential Latent Memories	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	As You Wish: Mission Planning with Formal Verification using LLMs in Precision Agriculture	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Structure Over Nonlinearity: Explicit Interaction Architectures for Dynamical Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Proprioceptive Invariant State Estimation for Humanoid Robots on Non-Inertial Ground	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Litmus: Zero-Label, Code-Driven Metric Specification for Evaluating AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Managing Procedural Memory in LLM Agents: Control, Adaptation, and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	MAS-PromptBench: When Does Prompt Optimization Improve Multi-Agent LLM Systems?	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	SVD-Surgeon: Optimal Singular-Value Surgery for Large Language Model Compression	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Grad Detect: Gradient-Based Hallucination Detection in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Ten Digits on a Train: AI-Assisted Verification of Two Eigenvalue Problems	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Grounding Generative Policies in Physics: Optimization-Guided Diffusion for Robot Control	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	AI Coaching for Accelerating Human Skill Development with Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.70	Memory-Efficient Policy Libraries with Low-Rank Adaptation in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	Decoupling Semantics and Geometric Grounding: Spatial Visual Prompts for Language-Conditioned Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.70	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.70	Scientific discovery as meta-optimization: a combinatorial optimization case study	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	The Verification Horizon: No Silver Bullet for Coding Agent Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Anthropic file a therapeutic patent before July 2029?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.70	SAGA: Scene-Aware, Goal-Evolving Agents for Long-Horizon CivRealm Strategy Planning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	HippoSpark: An On-Demand Experience System for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Hybrid Retriever Evolution for Multimodal Document Reasoning Agents	arxiv 2026-06-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	OpenSPM: An Environment-Transferable Robotic Key Spatial Pose Memory and Closed-Loop High-Frequency Flow-Matching Action Generation Model	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	A Systematic Approach to Multi-Agent AI from Advanced Regulatory Control Theory: Safe and Auditable LLM Operator Agents for Process Control	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Causal Study of AI Coding Agent Adoption in OSS	arxiv 2026-07-02	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-20	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.70	Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-04-25	IND_020 Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving... Morgan Stanley	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.70	Will SpaceX IPO before Bitcoin hits $100K again?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-04-23	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	Humanoid robot walking around me within three years?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-04-30	236_021 Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) Elon Musk	Robotics	10%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	☀️What will happen in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-05-01	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.70	Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.93.0	github_release 2026-04-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	A Benchmark for Interactive World Models with a Unified Action Generation Framework	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Brainrot: Deskilling and Addiction are Overlooked AI Risks	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.70	What Happens Inside Agent Memory? Circuit Analysis from Emergence to Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	RLDX-1 Technical Report	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	HAAS: A Policy-Aware Framework for Adaptive Task Allocation Between Humans and Artificial Intelligence Systems	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	AI-Generated Smells: An Analysis of Code and Architecture in LLM and Agent-Driven Development	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Position: the Stochastic Parrot in the Coal Mine. Model Collapse is a Threat to Low-Resource Communities	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.70	When AI Meets Science: Research Diversity, Interdisciplinarity, Visibility, and Retractions across Disciplines in a Global Surge	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.70	Rethinking RL for LLM Reasoning: It's Sparse Policy Selection, Not Capability Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.70	VLA-GSE: Boosting Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning in VLA with Generalized and Specialized Experts	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) (CIK 0001819994)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SPC_004 Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenue $602M (+38% YoY), market cap nearing $49B by early 2026 — as a key beneficiary of the SpaceX-ecosystem repricing wave. Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	83%
0.70	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Not Just RLHF: Why Alignment Alone Won't Fix Multi-Agent Sycophancy	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Position: Behavioural Assurance Cannot Verify the Safety Claims Governance Now Demands	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.70	An Interpretable Latency Model for Speculative Decoding in LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-15	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.70	Modelling Customer Trajectories with Reinforcement Learning for Practical Retail Insights	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.103.0	github_release 2026-05-19	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.70	Meta-Cognitive Memory Policy Optimization for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Battery-Sim-Agent: Leveraging LLM-Agent for Inverse Battery Parameter Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Open Problem: Separating Geometric and Algorithmic Compression via Cayley-Table Completion	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	LLM-Guided Future Hypotheses for Horizon-Aware Exploration in Multi-Step Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.70	Iteris: Agentic Research Loops for Computational Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Agent Operating Systems (AOS): Integrating Agentic Control Planes into, and Beyond, Traditional Operating Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Agent Memory: Characterization and System Implications of Stateful Long-Horizon Workloads	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	Humans' ALMANAC: A Human Collaboration Dataset of Action-Level Mental Model Annotations for Agent Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	CogManip: Benchmarking Manipulative Behavior in Multi-Turn Interactions with Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Human Oversight and Overload: Two Hidden and Costly Burdens of AI-Assisted Software Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.70	Individual Gain, Collective Loss: Metacognitive Adaptation in AI-Assisted Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) (CIK 0001819994)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	SPC_004 Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenue $602M (+38% YoY), market cap nearing $49B by early 2026 — as a key beneficiary of the SpaceX-ecosystem repricing wave. Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	83%
0.70	An Abstract Architecture for Explainable Autonomy in Hazardous Environments	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.70	Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	The Three-Ring Architecture: Governing Agents in the Era of On-Platform Organisations	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_027 Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... Michael Saylor	Crypto	25%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	From 0-to-1 to 1-to-N: Reproducible Engineering Evidence for MetaAI Recursive Self-Design	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Capacity, Not Format: Rethinking Structured Reasoning Failures	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Resource-aware Computation-Communication Overlap for multi-GPU ML Workloads	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	MASS: Deep Research for Social Sciences with Memory-Augmented Social Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	The Token Not Taken: Sampling, State, and the Variability of AI Agent Outputs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Data-driven discovery of governing differential equations across physical systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Accounting for AI Inference in Corporate GHG Inventories: A Four-Tier Methodology for Scope 3 Category 1 Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.70	Achieving Cloud-Grade SLOs for Local Mixture-of-Experts Inference through CPU-GPU Hybrid Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.70	What Matters in Orchestrating Robot Policies: A Systematic Study of Hierarchical VLA Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Nonslop: A Gamified Experiment in Human-AI Collaborative Writing	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	Making Foresight Actionable: Repurposing Representation Alignment in World Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Exploration Structure in LLM Agents for Multi-File Change Localization	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Toward Generalist Autonomous Research via Hypothesis-Tree Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	EA-WM: Event-Aware World Models with Task-Specification Grounding for Long-Horizon Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-13	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.70	When will a humanoid robot first be used to kill someone?	manifold 2026-06-13	229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-15	S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026	ai_regulatory_pause	5%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.109.2	github_release 2026-06-15	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.70	Stable Menus of Public Goods: AI-Enabled Progress	arxiv 2026-06-15	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.70	Tying the Loop -- Tied Expert Layers in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	The Integrator Advantage: Controlled Agentic AI for Small and Medium-Sized Companies	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.70	Embedded Arena: Iterative Optimization via Hardware Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	SciText2Eq: Assessing LLMs for Explainable Equation Generation for Scientific Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Agentic Framework for Deep Learning workload migration via In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Heteroskedastic Signals in Budgeted LLM Verification: Structural Heterogeneity Limits Optimization Gains	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	MyPCBench: A Benchmark for Personally Intelligent Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.70	T-Rex: Tactile-Reactive Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Fixed-Point Reasoners: Stable and Adaptive Deep Looped Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Speaking in Self-Assessing Tongues: On the Verbalized Confidence of LLMs in Machine Translation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Spotlight: Synergizing Seed Exploration and Spot GPUs for DiT RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.70	Skill-MAS: Evolving Meta-Skill for Automatic Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	What Must Generalist Agents Remember?	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Sumi: Open Uniform Diffusion Language Model from Scratch	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.70	Beyond Prediction: Tail-Aware Scheduling for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	LegalWorld: A Life-Cycle Interactive Environment for Legal Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.70	Do as I Do: Dexterous Manipulation Data from Everyday Human Videos	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-06-18	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.70	PhysDrift: Bridging the Embodiment Gap in Humanoid Co-Speech Motion Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.70	A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	GEMS: Geometric Constraints Enable Multi-Semantic Superposition in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Token-Operations-Oriented Inference Optimization Techniques for Large Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	The Almost Intelligent Revolution: Options for Scaling Up Deliberation and Empowering People with AI	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.70	Safety in Self-Evolving LLM Agent Systems: Threats, Amplification, and Case Studies	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	Attacking the Trusted Imagination: Oracle-Level Integrity Attacks on Imagine-then-Act World Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Evolutionary Optimization Reveals Structural Constraints on Reservoir Architecture for Spatiotemporal Chaos	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	PaperClaw: Harnessing Agents for Autonomous Research and Human-in-the-Loop Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-21	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	MAS-PromptBench: When Does Prompt Optimization Improve Multi-Agent LLM Systems?	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Curiosity as Linguistic Intervention: Using LLM Tutoring Dialogues to Influence Exploratory Learning Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	BluTrain: A C++/CUDA Framework for AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	TACTFUL: Tactile-Driven Exploration For Object Localization and Identification in Confined Environments	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Themis: An explainable AI-enabled framework for Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.70	DynaWM: Dynamics-Aware Distillation with World Model and Momentum Targets for Smooth Locomotion over Continuous Stairs	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Critique of Agent Model	arxiv 2026-06-22	238_034 Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.70	Parallel Manifold Steering: Efficient Adaptation of Large Associative Memories via Residual Energy Shaping	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	AI Snitches Get Glitches: Towards Evading Agentic Surveillance	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	Proactive Systems in HCI and AI: Concepts, Challenges, and Opportunities	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	Towards Scalable Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning with Large Decision Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	A Multi-Level Validation and Traceability Framework for AI-Generated Telescope Scheduling Decisions	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	An Empirical Study of LLM-Generated Specifications for VeriFast	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Graph Neural Networks Applications Across Domains: All Insights You Need	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) (CIK 0001819994)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	SPC_004 Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenue $602M (+38% YoY), market cap nearing $49B by early 2026 — as a key beneficiary of the SpaceX-ecosystem repricing wave. Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	83%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Anthropic file a therapeutic patent before July 2029?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-30	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.70	GROW$^2$: Grounding Which and Where for Robot Tool Use	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Exploring Motivations for Algorithm Mention in the Domain of Natural Language Processing: A Deep Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	ScAle: Attention Head Scaling as a Minimal Adapter for Spatial Reasoning in Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Arko-T: A Foundation Model for Text-to-Structured 3D Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Building Multi-Task Agentic LLMs via Two-Phase Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Selective Memory Retention for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Sequential Planning via Anchored Robotic Keypoints	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.114.0	github_release 2026-06-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.70	In 2025, California’s GDP was $4.3 trillion (PPIC.org). Will 2026 GDP be at least 4.4 trillion?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-07-01	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 3?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.70	A Geometric Perspective on Composable Emotion Steering in Text-to-Speech Models	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Text-Driven 3D Indoor Scene Synthesis in Non-Manhattan Environments	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	An Efficient vLLM-Based Inference Pipeline for Unified Audio Understanding and Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	OPINE-World: Programmatic World Modeling with Ontology-error-Prioritized Interactive Exploration	arxiv 2026-07-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	WattGPU: Predicting Inference Power and Latency on Unseen GPUs and LLMs	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 6?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-04-29	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.70	Humanoid robot walking around me within a year?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.70	METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks	codex_research_pack 2025-03-19	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.70	OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030	codex_research_pack 2026-04-26	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.70	NVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CES	codex_research_pack 2026-01-06	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.70	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.70	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	COD_AI_002 At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI/Compute	40%
0.70	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.70	European Commission - AI Act	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.70	European Commission - Guidelines for providers of general-purpose AI models	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.70	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.70	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.70	Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots	codex_research_pack 2025-03-16	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.70	1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.70	1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.70	1X - NEO's Starting to Learn On Its Own	codex_research_pack 2026-01-12	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.70	Agility Robotics - RoboFab and company milestones	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.70	NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack	Space	44%
0.70	NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.70	NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.70	NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.70	NASA - Europa Clipper Mission Timeline	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.70	NASA - Dragonfly development and launch schedule	codex_research_pack 2025-09-08	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.70	NASA - ESCAPADE begins journey to Mars on New Glenn	codex_research_pack 2025-11-13	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.70	Vast - Haven-1 targeted to launch May 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_006 Vast Haven-1 reaches orbit by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	38%
0.70	FDA - Framework for AI Models Used for Drug and Biological Product Submissions	codex_research_pack 2025-01-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.70	Isomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the clinic	codex_research_pack 2025-03-31	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.70	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	codex_research_pack 2025-03-04	COD_BIO_003 Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	20%
0.70	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	codex_research_pack 2025-03-04	COD_BIO_004 Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	12%
0.70	Colossal - Dire Wolf project	codex_research_pack 2025-04-07	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.70	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_003 Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	20%
0.70	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_004 Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	12%
0.70	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.70	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	From Intent to Execution: Composing Agentic Workflows with Agent Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Say the Mission, Execute the Swarm: Agent-Enhanced LLM Reasoning in the Web-of-Drones	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Cryptographic Registry Provenance: Structural Defense Against Dependency Confusion in AI Package Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.70	When Agents Handle Secrets: A Survey of Confidential Computing for Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	AcademiClaw: When Students Set Challenges for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Rethinking Local Learning: A Cheaper and Faster Recipe for LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Improving the Efficiency of Language Agent Teams with Adaptive Task Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Intentmaking and Sensemaking: Human Interaction with AI-Guided Mathematical Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	ReActor: Reinforcement Learning for Physics-Aware Motion Retargeting	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Priming, Path-dependence, and Plasticity: Understanding the molding of user-LLM interaction and its implications from (many) chat logs in the wild	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	ReaComp: Compiling LLM Reasoning into Symbolic Solvers for Efficient Program Synthesis	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Rethinking Local Learning: A Cheaper and Faster Recipe for LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	CKT-WAM: Parameter-Efficient Context Knowledge Transfer Between World Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	MEME: Multi-entity & Evolving Memory Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Probing Non-Equilibrium Grain Boundary Dynamics with XPCS and Domain-Adaptive Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Fast MoE Inference via Predictive Prefetching and Expert Replication	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	An Agentic AI Framework with Large Language Models and Chain-of-Thought for UAV-Assisted Logistics Scheduling with Mobile Edge Computing	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Concurrency without Model Changes: Future-based Asynchronous Function Calling for LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Of these potential 2028 candidates for president, who will be the first 3 to officially run?	manifold 2026-05-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-18	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.70	Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	Position: Weight Space Should Be a First-Class Generative AI Modality	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Learning to Choose: An Empowerment-Guided Multi-Agent System with semantic communication for Adaptive Method Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	AgentDoG 1.5: A Lightweight and Scalable Alignment Framework for AI Agent Safety and Security	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	On the Optimizer Dependence of Neural Scaling Laws	arxiv 2026-05-28	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.70	Compute Allocation in Evolutionary Search: From Depth-Breadth to Multi-Armed Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.70	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-30	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.70	Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	COMAP: Co-Evolving World Models and Agent Policies for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	OctoT2I: A Self-Evolving Agentic Text-to-Image Router	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	LLM Consortium for Software Design Refinement: A Controlled Experiment on Multi-Agent Collaboration Topologies	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Auditing Asset-Specific Preferences in Financial Large Language Models: Evidence from Bitcoin Representations and Portfolio Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_027 Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... Michael Saylor	Crypto	25%
0.70	Don't Let a Few Network Failures Slow the Entire AllReduce	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.70	Cross-lingual Self-Consistency for Multilingual Reasoning with Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Hybrid Verified Decoding: Learning to Allocate Verification in Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-05	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.70	Agent Memory: Characterization and System Implications of Stateful Long-Horizon Workloads	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Beyond Similarity: Trustworthy Memory Search for Personal AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.70	Towards World Models in Biomedical Research	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.70	LadderMan: Learning Humanoid Perceptive Ladder Climbing	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Individual Gain, Collective Loss: Metacognitive Adaptation in AI-Assisted Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	Beyond tokens: a unified framework for latent communication in LLM-based multi-agent systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	DuDi: Dual-Signal Distillation with Cross-Lingual Verbalizer	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	RealDexUMI: A Wearable Universal Manipulation Interface for Dexterous Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	A New Quaternion-Joint Cable-Driven Redundant Manipulator Configuration and its Control Through FABRIK and Residual Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.107.1	github_release 2026-06-07	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	How AI Agents Reshape Knowledge Work: Autonomy, Efficiency, and Scope	arxiv 2026-06-05	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.70	Act As a Real Researcher: A Suite of Benchmarks Evaluating Frontier LLMs and Agentic Harnesses in Research Lifecycle	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. Sam Altman	AI	17%
0.70	Act As a Real Researcher: A Suite of Benchmarks Evaluating Frontier LLMs and Agentic Harnesses in Research Lifecycle	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	The Three-Ring Architecture: Governing Agents in the Era of On-Platform Organisations	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.70	Will May 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 77.0%?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-05	235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis	Energy	53%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Anthropic cease operations or be acquired for less than $500 billion before 2034?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-08	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.70	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-08	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.70	Proxy Reward Internalization and Mechanistic Exploitation: A Learned Precursor to Reward Hacking and Its Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	SpatialWorld: Benchmarking Interactive Spatial Reasoning of Multimodal Agents in Real-World Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Lost in the Flow with Code Talkers: Unveiling the Instruction-Tuning Tax of Large Language Models in Code Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.70	PACT: Self-Evolving Physical Safety Alignment for Diffusion Policies in Embodied Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?	manifold 2026-06-10	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.70	Accounting for AI Inference in Corporate GHG Inventories: A Four-Tier Methodology for Scope 3 Category 1 Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt	Energy	47%