COD_ROB_001predictionRoboticshumanoid-production

Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

55.0%

Current probability

24.1%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-29 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

3 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.500

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 24.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending

2026-05-31overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-07-03pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-04-30partialFigure publishes weekly production update confirming sustained 1-robot-per-hour cadence
How: Figure blog or Brett Adcock X post with weekly throughput >=120 robots (24 robots/day x 5 days) for 4+ consecutive weeks
Source: Figure: 'Ramping Figure 03 Production' + 'manufacture 55 robots this week'conf 70%
Notes: Adcock confirmed 1 robot/hour pace + 55 robots/week ~= 1 every ~3 hours sustained; full hour-cadence sustained-30d still unverified
2026-08-04pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-09-06pendingFigure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingBotQ first-pass yield holds >=80% on quarterly disclosure
How: Figure investor update, customer-deployment partner press release, or Brett Adcock interview citing yield >=80%
Source: Robot Report + eWeek: BotQ 80% first-pass yield baselineconf 60%
2026-07-01 → 2026-11-30pendingCumulative Figure 03 deployments crosses 1,000 units
How: Figure or BMW/customer announcement disclosing cumulative deployed units >=1,000; baseline ~350 as of late Apr 2026
Source: Humanoids Daily: '24x Throughput', 350+ deployedconf 55%
2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndependent third-party verifies 30-day sustained 1/hr production rate
How: Reuters, Bloomberg, or trade-press article with on-site reporting confirming 30 consecutive days at >=24 robots/day average
Source: Direct measurement of prediction textconf 45%
2026-08-01 → 2027-03-31pendingBotQ #2 (or Phase 2 expansion) site groundbreaking or staffing ramp announcement
How: Figure announces second factory site or hiring plan to scale beyond 12,000 robots/yr
Source: BotQ stated cap 12,000/yr -> 100,000 over 4yr requires capacity expansionconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 24%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-08T01:14:46Z24.1%-6.8pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.241 blend=0.241 LLR=-0.345 κ=0.85 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.8371873105484041,
  "kappa": 0.8499,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.8050811588395164,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.30893966023233976,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8499,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3446047953811289,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-31",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.4139688826161171,
  "outside_weight": 0.5860311173838829,
  "posterior_prob": 0.2405464494698407,
  "posterior_logit": -1.1496859542206452,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.2405464494698407,
  "blended_posterior": 0.2405464494698407,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.3446047953811289,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z30.9%-1.5pp

Network propagation: 32.4% → 30.9%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z32.4%-3.0pp

Network propagation: 35.4% → 32.4%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z35.4%-6.4pp

Network propagation: 41.8% → 35.4%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.8%-13.2pp

Network propagation: 55.0% → 41.8%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026	40.0%	0.550	0.050	+0.009

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

5 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (2)

NVDA TSLA

Adverse (3)

KFY MAN RHI

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026	Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026	humanoid_deployment	—
correlate	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028	Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	—
correlate	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030	Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.759	manifold	How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket]	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-15
0.700	codex_research_pack	Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots	—	mentions	pending	2025-03-16
0.700	codex_research_pack	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-29
0.588	polymarket	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?	7%	mentions	pending	2026-01-07
0.571	polymarket	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?	90%	mentions	pending	2026-06-10
0.571	manifold	Nürburgring 24 Hours Prop bets	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-16
0.570	polymarket	Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	75%	mentions	pending	2026-06-29
0.569	polymarket	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?	10%	mentions	pending	2026-06-10
0.566	polymarket	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?	1%	mentions	pending	2026-06-10
0.562	polymarket	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?	0%	mentions	pending	2026-06-10

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-31",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T01:14:46.026680+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure publishes weekly production update confirming sustained 1-robot-per-hour cadence",
      "notes": "Adcock confirmed 1 robot/hour pace + 55 robots/week ~= 1 every ~3 hours sustained; full hour-cadence sustained-30d still unverified",
      "source": "Figure: 'Ramping Figure 03 Production' + 'manufacture 55 robots this week'",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/ramping-figure-03-production",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-10-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure blog or Brett Adcock X post with weekly throughput >=120 robots (24 robots/day x 5 days) for 4+ consecutive weeks"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_ROB_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BotQ first-pass yield holds >=80% on quarterly disclosure",
      "source": "Robot Report + eWeek: BotQ 80% first-pass yield baseline",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.therobotreport.com/figure-ai-unveils-botq-high-volume-humanoid-manufacturing-facility/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure investor update, customer-deployment partner press release, or Brett Adcock interview citing yield >=80%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Cumulative Figure 03 deployments crosses 1,000 units",
      "source": "Humanoids Daily: '24x Throughput', 350+ deployed",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-11-30",
        "from": "2026-07-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure or BMW/customer announcement disclosing cumulative deployed units >=1,000; baseline ~350 as of late Apr 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Independent third-party verifies 30-day sustained 1/hr production rate",
      "source": "Direct measurement of prediction text",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": nu
... (truncated)