Validations Queue

111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 41 of 55, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
242_042
Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
SEM_032
15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Mathematics9%
0.58manifold
2026-06-08
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-10
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58manifold
2026-06-10
235_023
Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.
Eric Schmidt
Energy48%
0.58manifold
2026-06-10
239_003
We are currently in AI hard takeoff
Elon Musk
AI47%
0.58manifold
2026-06-09
248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space12%
0.58manifold
2026-06-11
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.58manifold
2026-06-11
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.58manifold
2026-06-11
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.58manifold
2026-06-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58manifold
2026-06-12
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58manifold
2026-06-13
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58manifold
2026-06-13
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58manifold
2026-06-15
234_033
David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months
David Holz
Robotics12%
0.58manifold
2026-06-14
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.58manifold
2026-06-17
248_004
Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years.
Peter Diamandis
Space58%
0.58manifold
2026-06-16
AI_019
Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Markets/Stocks37%
0.58manifold
2026-06-18
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58manifold
2026-06-19
241_059
Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems
Peter Diamandis
Energy54%
0.58manifold
2026-06-19
246_025
Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).
Sam Altman
AI47%
0.58manifold
2026-06-20
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-20
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-20
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-20
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-19
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58manifold
2026-06-21
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-21
238_038
Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.58manifold
2026-06-22
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.58manifold
2026-06-22
CMQ_004
AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.
Dario Amodei
AI28%
0.58manifold
2026-06-21
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-24
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.58manifold
2026-06-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58manifold
2026-06-24
INF_047
2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy31%
0.58manifold
2026-06-20
238_047
US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar
Emad Mostaque
Energy45%
0.58manifold
2026-06-20
COD_SPC_005
NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window
Codex Research Pack
Space33%
0.58manifold
2026-06-26
248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI53%
0.58manifold
2026-06-26
246_048
Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58manifold
2026-06-26
246_024
Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).
Dave Blundin
AI45%
0.58manifold
2026-06-26
238_012
OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes
Kevin Weil
AI38%
0.58manifold
2026-06-25
235_033
Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport52%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-27
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-28
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-28
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-28
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-28
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-28
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-28
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-28
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-06-29
AUT_007
2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll...
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy13%
0.58manifold
2026-06-29
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58manifold
2026-06-28
243_036
Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport41%
0.58manifold
2026-06-30
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58manifold
2026-06-30
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-01
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-01
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-01
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58manifold
2026-06-30
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.58manifold
2026-07-02
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-02
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-03
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.58manifold
2026-07-03
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.58manifold
2026-07-03
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-03
235_035
Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI22%
0.58manifold
2026-07-04
230_005
Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58manifold
2026-07-04
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-04
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-03
247_045
1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026
Peter Diamandis
Robotics32%
0.58manifold
2026-07-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58manifold
2026-07-05
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-06
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.58manifold
2026-07-07
229_004
By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.
Brett Adcock
Geopolitics41%
0.58manifold
2026-07-07
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.57manifold
2026-04-28
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.57manifold
2026-04-28
233_003
Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring.
MacKenzie Price
Education39%
0.57manifold
2026-04-28
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57manifold
2026-04-28
246_025
Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).
Sam Altman
AI47%
0.57manifold
2026-04-27
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57manifold
2026-04-27
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57manifold
2026-04-27
CMQ_012
AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI41%
0.57
VALVE?!(market prob: 4%)
manifold
2026-04-23
236_028
AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately
Andrew Yang
Consumer51%
0.57manifold
2026-04-30
238_047
US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar
Emad Mostaque
Energy45%
0.57manifold
2026-04-30
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.57manifold
2026-04-30
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57manifold
2026-04-28
242_005
Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)
Peter Diamandis
Space34%
0.57manifold
2026-05-01
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57manifold
2026-05-01
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.57manifold
2026-05-02
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.57manifold
2026-05-01
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.57manifold
2026-05-03
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57manifold
2026-05-03
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
INF_014
Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance.
Morgan Stanley
Energy42%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
240_043
CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions
Peter Diamandis
Labor/Jobs55%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
241_011
By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill
Peter Diamandis
Labor/Jobs47%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
230_039
Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Education39%
0.57manifold
2026-05-03
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57manifold
2026-05-05
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57manifold
2026-05-05
S_IPO_TRILLION_2027
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
ipo_trillion_plus40%
0.57manifold
2026-05-07
240_034
Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028
Morgan Stanley
Energy47%
0.57manifold
2026-05-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57manifold
2026-05-08
SEM_016
Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience.
David Friedberg
Semis/Geopolitics20%
0.57manifold
2026-05-09
234_010
Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon
Dave Blundin
Defense36%
0.57manifold
2026-05-08
242_005
Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)
Peter Diamandis
Space34%
0.57manifold
2026-05-10
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.57manifold
2026-05-11
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.57manifold
2026-05-12
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57manifold
2026-05-15
243_028
Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027)
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport41%
0.57manifold
2026-05-14
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.57manifold
2026-05-16
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57manifold
2026-05-17
243_011
Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.57manifold
2026-05-17
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57manifold
2026-05-16
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.57manifold
2026-05-18
242_005
Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)
Peter Diamandis
Space34%
0.57manifold
2026-05-18
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.57manifold
2026-05-19
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57manifold
2026-05-17
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57manifold
2026-05-29
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57manifold
2026-05-29
242_019
EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport50%
0.57manifold
2026-05-28
240_043
CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions
Peter Diamandis
Labor/Jobs55%
0.57manifold
2026-05-28
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.57manifold
2026-05-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57manifold
2026-05-26
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57manifold
2026-05-25
231_040
Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy31%
0.57manifold
2026-05-31
236_036
Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy35%
0.57manifold
2026-05-31
234_050
Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.57manifold
2026-05-31
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57manifold
2026-06-01
S_RECESSION_2026
NBER recession declared 2026
macro_recession20%
0.57
Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%)
manifold
2026-06-01
246_031
Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57manifold
2026-06-03
235_004
Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism.
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs11%
0.57manifold
2026-06-04
238_038
Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57manifold
2026-06-04
232_014
Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI70%
0.57manifold
2026-06-05
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.57manifold
2026-06-04
234_001
India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline
Salim Ismail
Geopolitics44%
0.57manifold
2026-06-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.57manifold
2026-06-07
AI_002
Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027.
Dario Amodei
AI16%
0.57manifold
2026-06-08
CMQ_061
Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt.
Mark Cuban
Crypto4%
0.57manifold
2026-06-08
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57manifold
2026-06-11
236_017
Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.57manifold
2026-06-13
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57manifold
2026-06-13
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.57manifold
2026-06-15
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.57manifold
2026-06-15
243_025
Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.57manifold
2026-06-14
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57manifold
2026-06-16
234_026
AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57manifold
2026-06-18
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.57manifold
2026-06-18
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.57manifold
2026-06-18
COD_ROB_002
1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026
Codex Research Pack
Robotics27%
0.57manifold
2026-06-19
241_008
AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible
Eric Schmidt
AI43%
0.57manifold
2026-06-20
230_044
Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.
Peter Diamandis
Geopolitics51%
0.57manifold
2026-06-20
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57manifold
2026-06-19
COD_ROB_002
1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026
Codex Research Pack
Robotics27%
0.57manifold
2026-06-22
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57manifold
2026-06-20
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%