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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.58 | Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will USD strengthen against GBP in the next 24h?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket](market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil | Biotech/Longevity | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 246_027 AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). Sam Altman | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $739.17 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will I successfully refer someone for Ṁ1,000?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 80% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 247_022 Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-24 | CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 239_006 AI will solve everything including longevity Elon Musk | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | ||
| 0.58 | will we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 236_018 UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will I win any prize in the next prize drawing (Drawing #30)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will I win any prize in the next prize drawing (Drawing #30)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock be on the Democratic ticket in 2028?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Win by betting "yes"(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Leevoid go to the gym on the 21st of June 2026?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-21 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the Democratic Nominee in 2028 say “genocide”?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Composer 3 released today?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will the food messages come back from the f.?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 243_029 Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 48% | |
| 0.58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket](market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416 : Best word competition.(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Will someone manipulate a fire market?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I permaban 10+ users by end July 12th?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (dualism)(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Silver hit $65 an ounce by close of market Friday?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | Sub-1:59 marathon before LA Olympics?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Trump visits China by EOF June?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 13% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will my friend go on a date by the end of May?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will the top HN story have 500+ points when this resolves?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 245_021 Engineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over time Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 22nd, 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.58 | Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 41% | |
| 0.58 | 1 in 6 Adults are NEET in 2031 (UK)(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Tully–Fisher Relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 237_021 Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. Alex Finn | Crypto | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 240_024 Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate Marc Andreessen | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 24% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 236_033 Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours Andrew Yang | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the US reintroduce naval blockade before July?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (inflationary expansion)(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 239_030 1000x current economy would saturate human desires Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 243_002 Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 75% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Messi play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | Will I be promoted to Gold league or higher by the time my league closes(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-25 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.58 | Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 6?(market prob: 100%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 231_045 Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | AI_003 AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $100 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) into just 12-24 months — an unprecedented monetization velocity. Dario Amodei | Macro/Economy | 52% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will anyone finish five chicken bowls in 20 minutes at RSI 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.58 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Sony release a new Playstation game on a disc in the year 2028?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 22% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb | AI | 62% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 241_041 Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers Eric Schmidt | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_049 Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | My current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026)(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 237_003 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. Alex Finn | AI | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 235_009 Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. Dave Blundin | Defense | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | Do you like 54% odds?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket](market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_006 Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deliberately dismantle legacy operations before lateral multi-domain convergence renders them obsolete. Traditional technology hype cycle rejected; future no longer arrives one tr... Amy Webb | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | Avalanche vs Golden Knights series winner, Stanley Cup 2026(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-26 | SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be a large-scale riot in NYC after the NBA finals?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months David Holz | Robotics | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Starmer out by the end of this week(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | |
| 0.58 | Will silver hit $75/oz this week by close of market on Friday?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.58 | US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 241_059 Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems Peter Diamandis | Energy | 54% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Sam altman have visible grey hair by eoy2028?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (dark matter & banana)(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-22 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-22 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Ronaldo play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-24 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack | Space | 33% | ||
| 0.58 | Will GTA VI be delayed again?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 53% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_048 Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket](market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.58 | Composer 3 released today?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I permaban 10+ users by end July 12th?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% |