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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	FIFA World Cup (2026) Team Goals	manifold 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-06	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-07	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.59	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.59	Will I resolve this as yes or no?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-10	232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	Free Mana Part 4:All Answers resolves to NO (You can add answers in numerical form)	manifold 2026-06-12	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-12	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	Will Wales become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-13	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis	AI	8%
0.59	Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-14	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-14	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-14	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.59	Will Microsoft close or divest itself of Rare in 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_041 Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	71%
0.59	[Free Mana] Bot Cucking Market	manifold 2026-06-15	229_011 The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. Brett Adcock	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.59	Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-18	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-18	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.59	Will Leevoid go to the gym on the 21st of June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-20	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will I stay in masters conditional on Starmer not being out before July?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.59	With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-19	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	32%
0.59	Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-22	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.59	Will Los Angeles AQI exceed 151 at least once between June 27 – July 3, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-20	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	By what date will the 21st Century Road to Housing Act become law?	manifold 2026-06-24	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.59	Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-06-25	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.59	will this market have 50 or more unique traders by july 5(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	Will GTA VI be delayed again?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-26	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.59	What will my 2027 AIME I score be?	manifold 2026-06-26	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.59	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-27	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	How many traders will this market get? (closes in 24h)	manifold 2026-06-27	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will X happen at the Pride Match (Iran v Egypt, Seattle June 26)	manifold 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will all 5 Anti-Social Press cryptogram books be published on Amazon by the end October 31, 2026?(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-25	237_021 Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. Alex Finn	Crypto	30%
0.59	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in August 2026?(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-29	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Soylent is acquired by an Anthropic employee by EOY 2027(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-29	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.59	Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in July 2026 according to Manifold?	manifold 2026-07-01	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-07-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	What the total amount of mana will manifolders managram me?	manifold 2026-06-30	INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk	Energy	62%
0.59	When will pigs get rights?	manifold 2026-07-02	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.59	Will I get to IOI?	manifold 2026-07-04	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% or lower before Sep 1st 2026(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-07-06	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.59	Opus 4 revived by EoY 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-07-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-29	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.59	Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	32%
0.59	Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.59	Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-27	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-04-27	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.59	Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-26	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Which team will win Marble League 2026?	manifold 2026-04-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Donald Trump bomb Iran again in 2026?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-04-25	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.59	If there is an EAGxNordics 2027, where will it take place in?	manifold 2026-04-25	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?	manifold 2026-04-25	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.59	UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-24	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil	AI/Agents	74%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-04-23	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	XQC plays RLcraft again before June?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-01	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	31%
0.59	XQC plays RLcraft again before June?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-01	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-01	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.59	Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-30	231_053 Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	36%
0.59	How many members will Reform UK have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-03	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.59	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.59	Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	figure out the code - Insider trading and bluffing	manifold 2026-05-06	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.59	What will happen related to the Hantavirus in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	What will be the Opening Weekend Domestic Gross of 'Mortal Kombat II' (2026)?	manifold 2026-05-07	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	If we survive the singularity, will the average guy be able to get a catgirl harem with almost zero effort?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-08	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.59	Who will become president first?	manifold 2026-05-07	236_002 UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	42%
0.59	Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-04	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.59	price of silver at the end of may?	manifold 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	Can anyone get talkie-1930 to describe Chomskian recursive syntax?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-13	247_012 The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?	manifold 2026-05-13	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	Will Russian ISPs require additional payments from end-users for cross-border traffic by the end of 2026(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will Russian ISPs require additional payments from end-users for cross-border traffic by the end of 2026(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will TSLA close above $500 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Which philosophical subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.59	Will I hold a session at Less.Online 2026(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-30	238_003 Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	19%
0.59	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	What will Australia's total net overseas migration be for FY 25/26?	manifold 2026-05-29	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.59	Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-28	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.59	Will "Donating 80% While It Still Counts" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-28	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	More than 2000 suspected deaths due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-26	236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	55%
0.59	Wikipedia's article on xAi's successor to Grokipedia under title Encyclopedia Galactica by Christmas eve 2027?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-24	244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	Will Hasan Piker endorse the Democratic candidate in the 2028 election?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-24	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-31	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	Free Lottery (tidal disruption event)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-02	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	Which Party will win the Iowas 2nd House District Election?	manifold 2026-06-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Will I get into any MATS tracks in the Autumn 2026 cohort?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-03	233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt	Education	41%
0.59	Days I'll create a market in June?	manifold 2026-06-02	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Starmer out before November?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-06	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Total Sets Played Across 2026 French Open Men's and Women's Finals	manifold 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Pokemon Mega Ev Ascended Heroes: Will we unpack a card worth >$8.99 raw at Manifest (2 packs) [+Prizes](market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-07	230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin	Consumer	36%
0.59	30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-07	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	32%
0.59	Do you like 42% odds?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-06	239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk	Other	50%
0.59	Will anyone bet on this market by 17:00 Central?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-08	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.59	Will i be banned from Manifold for market manipulation and/or fixing markets before the end of the year?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-08	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.59	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-08	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-09	INF_060 Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive paradigm shift away from lithium as the sole foundational element of global energy storage. Elon Musk	Energy	42%
0.59	Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TSTST?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	will judge judy reach 100 years old?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-11	230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.59	Will Wales become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-13	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	Will this resolves to Yes or No(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-14	244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.59	Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-15	231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-15	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-15	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-16	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.59	Will the price of silver exceed $70 at the end of June(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	What will be the total prize pool in Manifold Prize Drawings #30-39?	manifold 2026-06-14	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	26%
0.59	Waymo in Portland in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-16	240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	8%
0.59	Free Lottery (inflationary expansion)(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.59	This market resolves to whatever the comments convince me to resolve it to(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-18	239_021 Money will stop being relevant at some point Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	35%
0.59	How many deaths will be reported as directly linked to South Africa’s 30 June 2026 anti-immigration shutdown/protests?	manifold 2026-06-20	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.59	Will I stay in masters conditional on Starmer not being out before July?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-19	231_036 Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.59	Will the Whalesayer Coinflip trigger an unspecified trigger condition?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-22	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	Meta's prediction platform PROP BETS.	manifold 2026-06-23	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-23	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	What will my 2027 AIME I score be?	manifold 2026-06-26	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	34%
0.59	Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-26	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.59	Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?	manifold 2026-06-29	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-06-30	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.59	Will there be a significant antipope by EOY 2040?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-07-02	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will there be a significant antipope by EOY 2040?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-07-02	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.59	How many "Will Tiger complete a problem set" markets will it take to result in a yes resolution?	manifold 2026-07-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-07-02	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	Will there be an odd or even number of traders on this market when it closes?	manifold 2026-07-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.59	Will "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should S..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	When will Yao Ye beat me in Codeforces rating?	manifold 2026-04-25	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Which side will win in "The Prediction Market Debate"?	manifold 2026-04-24	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-04-23	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.59	will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-04-28	236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer Andrew Yang	Robotics	44%
0.59	XQC plays RLcraft again before June?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	How many members will Reform UK have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Conditional on Manifest 2026 having fox-and-hedgehog shirts, how many of 20 random attendees will know the reference?	manifold 2026-05-01	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.59	will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-27	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.59	What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?	manifold 2026-05-04	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-05	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	Will New York City temperature go up in the next 24h?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-05	234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months David Holz	Robotics	12%
0.59	Will @grins or @megahertz fakesolve a TSTST problem with the Method of Moving Points?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-06	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Who will send the most mana to @traders	manifold 2026-05-06	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket](market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31st 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31st 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	If we survive the singularity, will the average guy be able to get a catgirl harem with almost zero effort?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-08	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-08	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.59	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-05-08	236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer Andrew Yang	Robotics	44%
0.59	How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-11	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-11	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will the Mechanize.work team have to hire bodyguards/bomb scanners by EOY2031?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-12	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.59	Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-13	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.59	How many Prime ministers will the UK have before 2028?	manifold 2026-05-15	ROB_015 The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equivalent to 25 years of Industrial Revolution economic upheaval compressed into 3 traumatic years — followed by the dawn of the 'Agentic Era' in 2027 where autonomous AI agents pa... Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	38%
0.59	Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-15	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.59	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Semi-Finals	manifold 2026-05-17	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-05-18	236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer Andrew Yang	Robotics	44%
0.59	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-18	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.59	Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-18	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.59	What award will I get at AMM 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.59	What will happen as a result of the Delaney Hall protests?	manifold 2026-05-30	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-29	232_046 SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. Elon Musk	Space	23%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket](market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-05-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-28	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.59	Will Project Hail Mary finish the year as the highest rated 2026 cinematic release on Letterboxd?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-28	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-25	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.59	Who is the best human ever to exist (revised edition)	manifold 2026-05-25	AI_035 In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative tasks, humanity faces profound existential questions regarding its 'meaning of life' — potentially leaving humans without a primary teleological purpos... Nick Bostrom	Other	37%
0.59	Disbursements from Trump Anti-Weaponization Fund exceed 1 billion dollars before dissolution?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-24	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.59	US Gas Price $4.100 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-31	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.59	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Free Mana:All Options Resolves YES (You can add answer in numerical only)	manifold 2026-05-31	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-06-01	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.59	Resolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-01	242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.59	Which Manifold Users will perform better than @Jack1 in June 2026 Leagues (add your username!)	manifold 2026-06-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Trump AGI mention market	manifold 2026-06-02	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Who will send the most mana to @traders	manifold 2026-06-02	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Nothing Ever Happens: June (Polymarket)	manifold 2026-06-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-02	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-02	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2026 according to Manifold?	manifold 2026-06-01	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	On what rocket will Blue moon MK1-SN001 launch on?	manifold 2026-06-04	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.59	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026, according to Ukraine?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-04	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will Silver drop below $65 per ounce by close of market on Friday June 12?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-06-05	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.59	Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-05	229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	17%
0.59	Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.59	Starmer out before November?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-06	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.59	Starmer out before November?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-06	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.59	Starmer out before November?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-06	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.59	Pokemon Mega Ev Ascended Heroes: Will we unpack a card worth >$8.99 raw at Manifest (2 packs) [+Prizes](market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-07	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.59	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-07	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-07	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-08	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-08	247_033 Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decade Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	62%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-08	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-08	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	US in control of Chagos Islands by end of 2028?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-08	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	US in control of Chagos Islands by end of 2028?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-08	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	22%
0.59	How far will the USA get in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-10	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.59	Total Goals at the 2026 fifa men’s World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-10	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	When will the first NBA game with no human referee on court be played?	manifold 2026-06-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Free Lottery (Big Bang nucleosynthesis )(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-13	234_027 Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?	manifold 2026-06-13	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Will this resolves to Yes or No(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-14	239_025 AI will solve back pain Elon Musk	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.59	[Free Mana] Bot Cucking Market	manifold 2026-06-15	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.59	Will "Jackass: Best and Last" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weeken(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-15	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-15	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-15	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Will Stellaris 2 be released before 2031?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-14	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-16	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	31%
0.59	Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-16	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.59	Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-19	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-18	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.59	Will Leevoid go to the gym on the 21st of June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-20	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.59	Will TADC: The Last Act reach 50M YouTube views by July 15, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-20	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	2026/2027 UEFA Champions League winner [independent]	manifold 2026-06-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-06-23	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-23	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-23	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Will Kenya get a chess international master within 1year?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will a commenter post a link to a video showing Micah Lasher doing a magic trick?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-25	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-28	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.59	Composer 3 released today?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-29	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.59	Soylent is acquired by an Anthropic employee by EOY 2027(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-29	247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-06-30	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	How many characters* will I make art of for Art Fight 2025?	manifold 2026-07-01	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-07-01	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will I hear at least once this week the word "stairs" during this week? (In any language)(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-30	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Will someone manipulate a fire market?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-07-02	231_026 Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. Dave Blundin	AI	38%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-07-02	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-07-02	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-07-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will someone hang a giant Jose Luis Ricon poster in moxsf.com for a period of more than 4 days in 2026-2027?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-07-03	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	Callais: Which of these states will use a new congressional map for 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.59	Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-04-29	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.59	Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-04-27	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.59	Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.59	Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-04-26	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should S..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Will Liam mention female ‘tortas’ between April 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM and April 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-04-25	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.59	Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-24	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will I win the main prize in this (second) prize drawing?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-04-23	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-29	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	What is the green mop 2026 cutoff?	manifold 2026-04-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-01	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.59	Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-01	241_047 Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.59	Will USD strengthen against EUR in the next 24h?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-03	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Days I'll create a market in May?	manifold 2026-05-02	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.59	Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	31%
0.59	Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5](market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-06	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Who will send the most mana to @traders	manifold 2026-05-06	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.59	Will I make positive profit in this season on my alt account this season??(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-04	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-08	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.59	Will the top HN story have 500+ points when this resolves?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-10	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.59	Mana inflation protection bonds	manifold 2026-05-11	AI_026 AI is executing a catastrophic repricing of legacy software stocks and a total 'demonetization of human capital' — the resultant deflationary shock will force global central banks into the most aggressive monetary easing and fiat currency printing in h... Michael Saylor	Macro/Economy	32%
0.59	Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.59	Which individual will win ARML 2026? [add yourself]	manifold 2026-05-12	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market	manifold 2026-05-13	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Can anyone get talkie-1930 to describe Chomskian recursive syntax?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-13	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-12	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-14	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-14	238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.59	What will my custom Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Driver allowed to sleep while car drives itself by?	manifold 2026-05-17	243_008 Streets will be safer as autonomous cars don't get distracted or tired Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.59	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Which team will win ARML 2026 Division B?	manifold 2026-05-18	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will SPY close below $720 on Friday, May 29, 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will "Donating 80% While It Still Counts" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-28	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.59	Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-27	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.59	On which dates will you get a 20 mana trader bonus for a 1000 mana market?	manifold 2026-05-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Starmer out before October?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-24	248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	34%
0.59	Who will send the most mana to @traders	manifold 2026-06-02	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.59	Will there be any news about another assassination attempt on Donald Trump this month?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-02	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.59	Will I increase the number of pull ups I can do by 50%+ by 25th June?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-04	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-04	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will this market receive over 67 unique traders before July 1?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	During Manifest @marysmith will...	manifold 2026-06-04	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	32%
0.59	Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-05	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.59	Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	Pokemon Mega Ev Ascended Heroes: Will we unpack a card worth >$8.99 raw at Manifest (2 packs) [+Prizes](market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-07	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	The King's Gauntlet winner? (Hera's AoE2 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-06-07	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-06	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.59	What will Xinyuan Zhou make?	manifold 2026-06-07	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	Will i be banned from Manifold for market manipulation and/or fixing markets before the end of the year?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-08	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.59	2026 NBA Finals G5-7 prop bets	manifold 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will there be widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city before 1 December 2026?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-11	SPC_010 Establishment of a self-sustaining city on Mars populated by 1 million people by the year 2050 — despite logistical delays and the lunar detour, Musk maintains this ultimate target. Elon Musk	Space	17%
0.59	Will the Sunshine Protection Act or permanent DST become law by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-11	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.59	Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-12	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Free Lottery (Planck satellite)(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-12	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will Microsoft close or divest itself of Rare in 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-15	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner concede 5 or fewer total goals throughout the tournament?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will silver hit $75/oz this week by close of market on Friday?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-18	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.59	Manifold Markets 7-day average of Daily Active Users will be at least 29,000 by January 29, 2029 (1/29/29).(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-22	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.59	2026/2027 UEFA Champions League winner [independent]	manifold 2026-06-22	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-06-23	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.59	will this market have 50 or more unique traders by july 5(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	June 26th World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Fable 5 VS GPT 5.6 Sol: which model will manifold users find to be more useful?	manifold 2026-06-26	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will The Anti-Social Press reach 100 combined Amazon reviews by the end June 30, 2027?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-26	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-28	232_034 Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket](market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.59	Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-07-01	CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	41%
0.59	How restrictive will Fable's new safeguards be, according to manifold?	manifold 2026-07-01	231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-07-02	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-07-02	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.59	Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-07-03	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	Will I get to IOI?	manifold 2026-07-04	230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Two-way animal communication awarded before...	manifold 2026-07-03	237_030 Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-28	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-04-28	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	34%
0.59	Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	56%
0.59	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.59	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-30	243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.59	Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Which Party will win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election	manifold 2026-05-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.59	Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-30	CMQ_005 AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role. Dario Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	How many members will Reform UK have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	What will happen during Claude Opus 4.7 Plays Pokemon?	manifold 2026-05-03	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-03	248_025 Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	34%
0.59	Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis	Energy	53%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.59	Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.59	Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	Which countries will be attacked by Iran or its proxies between May 4 and July 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-04	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.59	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.59	Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-06	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.59	Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	How many North Korean defectors will there be in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-07	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.59	Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-07	AUT_026 By the 2030s, autonomous nanobots will be deployed directly into the human bloodstream — microscopic autonomous agents acting as internal bio-surveillance network, detecting and repairing cellular damage and biological decline faster than it naturally ... Ray Kurzweil	Biotech/Longevity	18%
0.59	will i get gold at amm 2026(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	Will the top HN story have 500+ points when this resolves?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-10	248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will the top HN story have 500+ points when this resolves?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-10	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-11	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Who will win the Super Chess Classic Romania (GCT 2nd event)?	manifold 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.59	How many minutes will CLASH (HS) be delayed by?	manifold 2026-05-12	231_029 Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. Dave Blundin	Other	49%
0.59	Will WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-12	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.59	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 9¾(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-13	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.59	Manifest 2026 Prop Bets	manifold 2026-05-13	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.59	Which team will win the 2026 MLS Cup (all 30 teams in market) Polymarket and Kalshi in description	manifold 2026-05-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Trump or Biden Live longer?	manifold 2026-05-15	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Who will make Indonesia's IOI 2026 Team?	manifold 2026-05-15	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.59	Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-16	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-16	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Bella Poarch - Ribcage (Official Music Video) on youtube will reach above 3M views before the end of May 2026??(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-28	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	27%
0.59	Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-27	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	Disbursements from Trump Anti-Weaponization Fund exceed 1 billion dollars before dissolution?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-24	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.59	Disbursements from Trump Anti-Weaponization Fund exceed 1 billion dollars before dissolution?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-24	ROB_014 White-collar 'bloodbath' could displace up to 40 million US jobs — leading edge already visible with 1.1M+ US job cuts in 2025 where AI was explicitly cited as primary culprit. Without UBI ($1,000/month funded by AI-compute + VAT taxes), automation wav... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	28%
0.59	Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-31	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.59	Will this market receive over 67 unique traders before July 1?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-06	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.59	Pokemon Mega Ev Ascended Heroes: Will we unpack a card worth >$8.99 raw at Manifest (2 packs) [+Prizes](market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-07	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-06-08	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	2026 FIFA World Cup top 4 variable payout	manifold 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will "The Machines Lack Honour" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-10	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Free Lottery (Planck satellite)(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-12	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.59	Free Lottery (Big Bang nucleosynthesis )(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-13	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.59	[Free Mana] Bot Cucking Market	manifold 2026-06-15	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	Will I reach a streak of 1000?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-15	231_028 Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.59	US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will my color-based web game exceed 100 users in a single day?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-17	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-06-15	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-18	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.59	Will TADC: The Last Act reach 50M YouTube views by July 15, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-20	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (round 1)?	manifold 2026-06-21	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-22	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	Will BasedBeffJezos turn into a playable character in any Mechwarrior game like Mechwarrior 6 by 2040?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-21	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.59	Will BasedBeffJezos turn into a playable character in any Mechwarrior game like Mechwarrior 6 by 2040?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-21	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-06-23	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.59	First year the US has a public drone light show with 100,000+ drones?	manifold 2026-06-25	S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028	robotaxi_deployment	45%
0.59	Will NWS issue a new Beach Hazards Statement for the San Francisco Peninsula Coast between June 21 and June 26, 2026(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-20	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.59	Fable 5 VS GPT 5.6 Sol: which model will manifold users find to be more useful?	manifold 2026-06-26	246_051 GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. Peter Diamandis	AI	35%
0.59	Will I get someone IRL to follow me onto Manifold Markets between today and 10/30/26?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-26	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?	manifold 2026-06-26	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.59	When Fable access returns, will it be available as part of the monthly paid plan?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-06-26	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket](market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-07-02	AI_018 Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion through 2028 — early adopters of AI infrastructure are already seeing cash-flow-margin expansions at roughly twice the global average. Morgan Stanley	Energy	49%
0.59	Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-07-02	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.59	Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 5x subscription on July 08 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-07-02	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-07-02	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.59	When will Fable be available on a subscription again?	manifold 2026-07-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.59	Will I get to IOI?	manifold 2026-07-04	242_024 Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up Dave Blundin	Real Estate	36%
0.59	Will July 2026 in Paris, France be the hottest July Paris has ever had?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-07-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Do you like 66% odds?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-07-06	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.59	Best April 29 Earnings?	manifold 2026-04-29	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	29%
0.59	Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-04-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-04-26	230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Will Liam mention female ‘tortas’ between April 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM and April 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.59	Will Monero trade below $300 during May?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.59	What is the green mop 2026 cutoff?	manifold 2026-04-27	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-04	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	27%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.59	Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	FREE 1K MANA(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	US Consumer Price Index (April '26) < 3.55%(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.59	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	Will @grins or @megahertz fakesolve a TSTST problem with the Method of Moving Points?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-06	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.59	In which months will there be a day the US gas average is at $4 or below?	manifold 2026-05-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	In which months will there be a day the US gas average is at $4 or below?	manifold 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will a full-scale military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran resume by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-05	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	What will be log(deaths) from the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak by the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-07	236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	55%
0.59	Hentavirus pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-09	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.59	METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-12	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	On which of these days in May will WTI Crude Oil Futures Price rise?	manifold 2026-05-12	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.59	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-12	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	21%
0.59	Who will be the Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad 2026 absolute winner?	manifold 2026-05-12	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	Which individual will win ARML 2026? [add yourself]	manifold 2026-05-12	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Which individual will win ARML 2026? [add yourself]	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Will the Trump-branded Trump Mobile Phone actually exist before the next Presidential election?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_034 Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. Dave Blundin	Consumer	32%
0.59	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 9¾(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will these people be rank 1 in their province in the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-15	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	34%
0.59	Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-14	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.59	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Semi-Finals	manifold 2026-05-17	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.59	Will TSLA close above $500 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.59	Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-30	248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	45%
0.59	Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-30	S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031	energy_grid_expansion	10%
0.59	Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-30	248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	45%
0.59	Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-30	S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031	energy_grid_expansion	10%
0.59	Will "Mnemonic portraits for 19,023 human genes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.59	Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-29	COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack	Space	44%
0.59	Will I Pass My Exams or Will I Pass Away?	manifold 2026-05-28	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.59	Will Chicago A1 have any tiebreak quals at ARML 2026?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	How will I do on ARML 2026	manifold 2026-05-26	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	What amounts of mana will manifolders managram me?	manifold 2026-05-24	235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-24	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	US Gas Price on June 15?	manifold 2026-05-31	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	26%
0.59	Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-31	234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin	Defense	36%
0.59	Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-31	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	53%
0.59	Which Manifold Users will perform better than @Jack1 in June 2026 Leagues (add your username!)	manifold 2026-06-01	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Which Manifold Users will perform better than @Jack1 in June 2026 Leagues (add your username!)	manifold 2026-06-01	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-31	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.59	Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?	manifold 2026-06-02	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.59	Will Softbank Group Corp. (9984.t) close at over 8000 on Jun11?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-29	IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	34%
0.59	Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.59	Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_042 On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-06	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	At the end of the next 30 days, starting from today (June 7 2026), how many blocks will be broken on mysterybox.art ?	manifold 2026-06-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.59	Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-08	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-06-08	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.59	Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-08	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.59	US in control of Chagos Islands by end of 2028?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-08	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Will somebody perform an assassination attempt on Mark Zuckerberg before 2028?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-10	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-11	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will the Sunshine Protection Act or permanent DST become law by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-11	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-11	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	When will Fable be publicly accessible again?	manifold 2026-06-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	How many years between Starship 50 and Starship 500?	manifold 2026-06-14	248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis	Space	58%