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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	Information-Theoretic Decomposition for Multimodal Interaction Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	MPC-Patch-Bench: Security-Aware LLM Code Patch for Multi-Party Computation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	When Probing Accuracy Saturates, Fragility Resolves: A Complementary Metric for LLM Pre-Training Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Context-Driven Incremental Compression for Multi-Turn Dialogue Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	How Low Can You Go? Active Learning for Sparse Model Discovery in the Ultra-Low-Data Limit	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	DAM-VLA: Decoupled Asynchronous Multimodal Vision Language Action model	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	PAWS: Preference Learning with Advantage-Weighted Segments	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	RePAIR: Predictive Self-Supervised Representation Learning in Chess	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	SPADE: Split-and-Delay Embeddings for Autoregressive High-Granularity Calorimeter Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	An Ontology-Guided Multi-Anchor Graph Retrieval Framework for Traffic Legal Liability Determination	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Improving Cross-Format Robustness in Language Models with Multi-Format Training	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Scenario-based Probing and Steering Cultural Values in Large Language Models--Extended Version	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_035 In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative tasks, humanity faces profound existential questions regarding its 'meaning of life' — potentially leaving humans without a primary teleological purpos... Nick Bostrom	Other	37%
0.63	APT: Action Expert Pretraining Improves Instruction Generalization of Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Cross-Modal Benchmarking for Robotic Perception in Natural Environments	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Adversarial Attacks on Learned Policies for Surgical Robotic Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning from Delayed Marketplace Feedback for Objective-Weight Adaptation in Three-Sided Dispatch	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.63	Evaluation Sovereignty in Metadata-Driven Classification: A Multi-Track Framework for Weakly Supervised Information Systems	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Optimizing Appliance Scheduling for Solar Energy Management Using Metaheuristic Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_010 Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 2026-2031+; precipitous decline drives solar to ~1/3 of all global electricity generation. Wright's Law mathematical certainty applied to silicon PV + lithium-ion storage + elect... Ramez Naam	Energy	70%
0.63	Efficient, Robust, and Anti-Collusion Fingerprinting of Image Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	SymQNet: Amortized Acquisition for Low-Latency Adaptive Hamiltonian Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Distribution-Agnostic Robust Trajectory Optimization via Chance-Constrained Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	SPC_021 Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital vehicles by layering AI/ML software with intelligent robotics — drastically reducing part counts and manufacturing latency via autonomous rocket-construction pipelines. Eric Schmidt	Space	45%
0.63	Accelerating Speculative Diffusions via Block Verification	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Navigating the Safety-Fidelity Trade-off: Massive-Variate Time Series Forecasting for Power Systems via Probabilistic Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	CLARITree: Cholesky and Lookahead Accelerations for Regression with Interpretable Piecewise Linear Trees	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Deep Unfolded Latent Optimally Partitioned-l2/l1 Networks for Data-driven Block-Sparse Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Fed-FBD: Federated Functional Block Diversification for Isolation, Privacy, and Surgical Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	The Metric Picks the Winner: Evaluation Choice Flips Model Rankings for Drug-Response Prediction in Unseen Chemistry	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	The Metric Picks the Winner: Evaluation Choice Flips Model Rankings for Drug-Response Prediction in Unseen Chemistry	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	Viral Proteins Reveal Geometry of Protein Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	MÖVE: A Holistic LLM Benchmark for the German Public Sector	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	LoHoSearch: Benchmarking Long-Horizon Search Agents Beyond the Human Difficulty Ceiling	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	facebookresearch/pytorchvideo 0.1.0	github_release 2021-04-13	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-06-13	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.63	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.10.0	github_release 2020-11-12	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.63	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.9.0	github_release 2019-12-04	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.63	When will there be a closed loop life support demonstration on Earth?	manifold 2026-06-14	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will this market get between 10-20 unique traders by June 20?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-15	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	US Gas Price on July 1?	manifold 2026-06-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) (CIK 0001706946)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	14%
0.63	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.5	github_release 2023-10-31	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.63	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.2.5	github_release 2020-08-28	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.63	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	HAMON: Passive Optical Sequence Mixing for Long-Horizon Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Probing Low Frame Rate Degradation in Neural Audio Codecs	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.63	Decoupling Semantics from Distortions: Multi-Scale Two-Stream Vision-Language Alignment for AI-Generated Image Quality Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	A First-Principles Derivation of LLM Policy Optimization: From Expected Reward to GRPO and Its Structural Extensions	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Training and Evaluating Diffusion Policies with Long Context Lengths	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	ACCORD: Action-Conditioned Contextual Grounding for Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	ArtBoost: Synthetic Articulatory Data Augmentation for Acoustic-to-Articulatory Inversion	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	SPARK: Security Knowledge Priming and Representation-Guided Knowledge Activation for LLM-based Secure Code Generation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	AuAu: A Benchmark for Auditing Authoritarian Alignment in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	AuAu: A Benchmark for Auditing Authoritarian Alignment in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.63	Topological Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	NVMOS: Non-Verbal Vocalization Quality Assessment in Speech	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.63	Intelligence Is Not the Bottleneck: Validating an LLM First-Pass Manuscript Score Against Peer-Review Outcomes	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Decoupling Inference from State Updates in Low-Latency Feature Engines via Probabilistic Thinning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.63	Beyond the Smile: A Hybrid Convolutional VAE for Crypto Volatility Surfaces	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.63	Fantastic Pretraining Optimizers and Where to Find Them II: Hyperball Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	The Algebra of Units: From Buckingham's Pi-grec Theorem to Latent-Variable Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	MultiMolecule: a modular ecosystem for biomolecular sequence-model workflows	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	A Mechanistic Understanding of Pronoun Fidelity in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Understanding the Behaviors of Environment-aware Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Progressive Knowledge-Guided Large Language Model Framework for Bearing Fault Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	TopoRetarget: Interaction-Preserving Retargeting for Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	ATHENA: Accelerated Multi-Task Heterogeneous Influence Functions for Robot Data Curation	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_025 Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.63	PO-PDDL: Learning Symbolic POMDPs from Visual Demonstrations for Robot Planning Under Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Pixels to Proofs: Probabilistically-Safe Latent World Model Control via Parallel Conformal Robust MPC	arxiv 2026-06-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Perfect Demo Makes Poor Teacher: Learning Robust Alignment from Critical Motion Segments	arxiv 2026-06-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-10	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.63	The Stanford EDGAR Filings Dataset: Reconstructing U.S. Corporate and Financial Disclosures into Layout-Faithful and Token-Efficient Pretraining Data	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	S4oP: Operator-level Pruning of Structured State Space Models for Resource-Constrained Devices	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	StepGuard: Guarding Web Navigation via Single-Step Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Talking to Your Data: Exploring Embodied Conversation as an Interface for Personal Health Reflection	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.63	Visored: A Controlled-Natural-Language Prover for LLM-Generated Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Geometry-Aware Post-Hoc Uncertainty Quantification in Operator Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Discrete Autoregressive Transformer for Generative Mechanism Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	Discrete Autoregressive Transformer for Generative Mechanism Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Adaptive Volumetric Mechanical Property Fields Invariant to Resolution	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Multi-Source Cybersecurity Logs: An ATT&CK-Labeled Dataset and SLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.63	Recursive Scaling in Masked Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Qwen-RobotManip Technical Report: Alignment Unlocks Scale for Robotic Manipulation Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_025 Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.63	From Drift to Coherence: Stabilizing Beliefs in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	When Dynamics Models Read the Wrong Time Steps: Label-Free Event Credit Re-Anchoring for Robust Global Readouts	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Multi-Adapter PPO: A Cross-Attention Enhanced Wavelength Selection Framework for LIBS Quantitative Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Sum-of-Squares Degree Barriers for the Reweighted-Hinge Method in Robust Halfspace Learning: A Christoffel-Function Characterization	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Compositional Skill Routing for LLM Agents: Decompose, Retrieve, and Compose	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Reading between the Lines: Leveraging Large Language Models for Global Dementia and Depression Assessment from Clinical Interviews	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	The Slop Paradox: How Synthetic Standardization Erodes Clinical Uncertainty and Cross-Modal Alignment in AI-Rewritten Radiology Reports	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.63	GASE: Gaussian Splatting-Based Automated System for Reconstructing Embodied-Simulation Environments	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Contactless Respiratory Monitoring on Heterogeneous Mobile Robots: A Multimodal Edge-Computing Framework	arxiv 2026-06-16	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	NeSyCat Torch: A Differentiable Tensor Implementation of Categorical Semantics for Neurosymbolic Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.63	Mechanism-Guided Selective Unlearning for RLVR-Induced Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Beyond Safe Data: Pretraining-Stage Alignment with Regular Safety Reflection	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Pareto Q-Learning with Reward Machines	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Decoupling Search from Reasoning: A Vendor-Agnostic Grounding Architecture for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Maturing Markov Decision Processes: Decision Making under Increasing Information and Shrinking Action Sets	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.63	ProfiLLM: Utility-Aligned Agentic User Profiling for Industrial Ride-Hailing Dispatch	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Two-Phase Bilevel Search for the Moving-Target Traveling Salesman Problem with Moving Obstacles	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Two-Phase Bilevel Search for the Moving-Target Traveling Salesman Problem with Moving Obstacles	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.63	TW-LegalBench: Measuring Taiwanese Legal Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Augmenting Dysarthric Speech Severity Assessment with MOS Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	QC-GAN: A Parameter-Efficient Quaternion Conformer GAN for High-Fidelity Speech Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Sparsity Curse: Understanding RLVR Model Parameter Space from Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	PSyGenTAB: A Privacy-Preserving Framework for Synthetic Clinical Tabular Data Generation via Constrained Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	Deep-Learning-Based Pixelated Microwave Filter Design and Characterization using Electro-Optical Electric-Field Measurements	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Redact or Keep? A Fully Local AI Cascade for Educational Dialogue De-Identification	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	The Stanford EDGAR Filings Dataset: Reconstructing U.S. Corporate and Financial Disclosures into Layout-Faithful and Token-Efficient Pretraining Data	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Freeing the Law with LOCUS: A Local Ordinance Corpus for the United States	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	A Human-in-the-Loop Bayesian Optimization Framework for Constraint-Aware Bioprocess Development	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.63	OpenAnt: LLM-Powered Vulnerability Discovery Through Code Decomposition, Adversarial Verification, and Dynamic Testing	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Investigating Inductive Biases for Machine Learning Emulation of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Idealised Isca Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Ensuring Trustworthy Online A/B Testing: Addressing Five Key Questions on CUPED	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	MetaboNet-Bench: A Multi-modal Benchmark for Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.63	Bridging Data Gaps in Structural Fragility Modeling through Transfer Learning: Methodology and Case Studies	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Compact Geometric Representations of Hierarchies	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	The Illusion of Improvement: Reject Inference Strategies in Credit Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-16	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.63	Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	ThousandWorlds: A benchmark for climate emulation of potentially habitable exoplanets	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.63	Reliable Neural-Codec Text-to-Speech by ASR Self-Verification and Distillation: Near-Zero Catastrophic Failures Across Models and Codecs	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Efficient Financial Language Understanding via Distillation with Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	VISUALSKILL: Multimodal Skills for Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Monocular 3D Occupancy Perception for Robots on Sidewalks via Hybrid 2D-3D Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	DNN Koopman-Based Deviation Compensation for UGV Path Tracking Control on Coupled Slope and Potholed Road	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	SC3-Eval: Evaluating Robot Foundation Models via Self-Consistent Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Qwen-RobotManip Technical Report: Alignment Unlocks Scale for Robotic Manipulation Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_025 Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.63	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Multi-View Decompilation for LLM-Based Malware Classification	arxiv 2026-06-18	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Variable-Length Tokenization via Learnable Global Merging for Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Advancing DialNav through Automatic Embodied Dialog Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Beyond Uniform Forgetting: A Study of Sequential Direct Preference Optimization Across Preference Settings	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Review of Machine Learning Models for Solar Energetic Particle Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.63	DeXposure-Claw: An Agentic System for DeFi Risk Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Fisher-Geometric Sharpness and the Implicit Bias of SGD toward Flat Minima	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	What Makes Effective Supervision in Latent Chain-of-Thought: An Information-Theoretic Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Alzheimer's Disease Diagnosis using a Multimodal Approach with 3D MRI and PET	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Prompt, Plan, Extract: Zero-Shot Agentic LLMs Workflows for Lung Pathology Extraction from Clinical Narratives	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Comparative Study on Agility, Efficiency, and Impact Absorption of Bipedal Robots with Active Toes	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	DF-ExpEnse: Diffusion Filtered Exploration for Sample Efficient Finetuning	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	A Solver-Free Training Method for Predict-then-Optimize	arxiv 2026-06-17	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.63	Predicting Mergeability of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning Updates	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.63	NAMESAKES: Probing Identity Memorization in Text-to-Image Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Fast Human Attention Prediction for Fixation-guided Active Perception in Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Autonomous Driving with Priority-Ordered STL Specifications Under Multimodal Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.63	Autonomous Driving with Priority-Ordered STL Specifications Under Multimodal Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Autonomous Driving with Priority-Ordered STL Specifications Under Multimodal Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Motor Angular Speed Preintegration for Multirotor UAV State Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_019 EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	50%
0.63	Motor Angular Speed Preintegration for Multirotor UAV State Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.63	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	What's the distribution of people across the intersections of Manifold, LessWrong, and AI Safety?	manifold 2026-06-22	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	What's the distribution of people across the intersections of Manifold, LessWrong, and AI Safety?	manifold 2026-06-22	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	What's the distribution of people across the intersections of Manifold, LessWrong, and AI Safety?	manifold 2026-06-22	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Semantic Browsing: Controllable Diversity for Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	32%
0.63	Open Problem: Is AdamW Effective Under Heavy-Tailed Noise?	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Exposing the Illusion of Erasure in Knowledge Editing for LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	ReNIO: Reweighting Negative Trajectory Importance for LLM On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	SpotAttention: Plug-In Block-Sparse Routing for Pretrained Long-Context Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-22	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.63	Skin-Deep: A Geometric Diagnostic for Alignment Fragility in Large Language Model Representations	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Text2DSL: LLM-Based Code Generation for Domain-Specific Languages	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.63	CASPER in the Machine: Insights into Character Variety in LLM-Generated Stories	arxiv 2026-06-21	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	On the Limits of Prompt-Conditioned Language Models as General-Purpose Learners	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Muown Implicitly Performs Angular Step-size Decay	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Approximating velocity fields with planted attractors via Neural-ODEs for classification purposes	arxiv 2026-06-22	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	Collapsed Effective Operators for Higher-order Structures	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Quantum Convolutional Neural Networks for Groundwater Heat Plume Prediction: A Surrogate Modeling Approach	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Transfer learning-based method for automated ewaste recycling in smart cities	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_019 The rise of the 'Electro-Industrial Stack' — AI moving out of the browser and into the physical economy, turning traditional hardware engineering into deeply integrated software-driven systems; relies on robot learning, autonomous science, and new inte... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	60%
0.63	Incremental Learning in Mirror Flows	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	The Fractal Neural Operator: Overcoming Spectral Bias in Chaotic Attractors via Prime-Harmonic Weierstrass Encodings	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Do Sparse Autoencoders Learn Meaningful Concept Hierarchies?	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Domain-incremental audio classification using domain-specific experts and prototype classifier	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	CITADEL: CSI-Based Jamming Detection and Open-Set Classification for IIoT Networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	One-Step Flow Matching for Generative Modeling of Path-Dependent Physical Fields	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	Error Highways: Scaling Predictive Coding to Very Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Escaping the Variance Trap: Jacobian-Free Dynamics for Root-Finding Bilevel Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-21	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	Escaping the Variance Trap: Jacobian-Free Dynamics for Root-Finding Bilevel Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Asymptotic Signal Subspace Recovery in Softmax Attention Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Self-Compacting Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Self-Compacting Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Learning to See While Learning to Act: Diffusion Models for Active Perception in Robot Imitation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Flowing With Purpose: Latent Action Guided Flow Matching Policies For Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	PanoVine: Whole-Body Visuomotor Control for Soft Growing Vine Robot	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Cloak: Zero-Shot Cross-Embodiment Manipulation by Masking the End-Effector from the VLA	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Cooperative-ORCA*: Real-Time Proactive Deadlock Avoidance for Continuous-Space Multi-Agent Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-22	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.3.1	github_release 2026-04-22	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	Cost-Optimal Decision Diagrams for Stochastic Boolean Function Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Pigeonholing: Bad prompts hurt models to collapse and make mistakes	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	Neural Network-Based Parametric Model Reduction for Predicting Turbulent Flow for Different Vehicle Geometries	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	OmniPath: A Multi-Modal Agentic Framework for Auditing Wheelchair Accessibility	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Selective Capability Unlearning in End-to-End Spoken Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	RAVEN: A Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network for Financial Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	RASC+: Retrieval-Constrained LLM Adjudication for Clinical Value Set Authoring	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	From Task-Guided Conversational Graphs to Goal-Oriented Dialogue Runtimes	arxiv 2026-06-22	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	33%
0.63	AsyncOPD: How Stale Can On-Policy Distillation Be?	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	MinInter: Minimizing Trajectory Interpolation During Data Augmentation for Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	PanoVine: Whole-Body Visuomotor Control for Soft Growing Vine Robot	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	SpeechEQ: Benchmarking Emotional Intelligence Quotient in Socially Aware Voice Conversational Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.63	Is GraphRAG Needed? From Basic RAG to Graph-/Agentic Solutions with Context Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	C3-Bench: A Context-Aware Change Captioning Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Beyond Visual Forensics: Auditing Multimodal Robustness for Synthetic Medical Image Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	Sarashina2.2-TTS: Tackling Kanji Polyphony in Japanese Speech Generation via Data Scaling and Targeted Data Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.63	What Intermediate Layers Know: Detecting Jailbreaks from Entropy Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	BCoughBench: Benchmarking Respiratory Acoustic Foundation Models Under Body-Coupled Wearable Sensor Conditions	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.63	GCT-MARL: Graph-Based Contrastive Transfer for Sample-Efficient Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Internal Data Repetition Destroys Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.63	RevengeBench: Reverse Engineering Code-Space Policies from Behavioral Experiments	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	ROAD-VLA: Robust Online Adaptation via Self-Distillation for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Two-dimensional Hyperbolic RNN Neural Quantum State	arxiv 2026-06-24	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Low Variance Trust Region Optimization with Independent Actors and Sequential Updates in Cooperative Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Causal-rCM: A Unified Teacher-Forcing and Self-Forcing Open Recipe for Autoregressive Diffusion Distillation in Streaming Video Generation and Interactive World Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	The Generalization Spectrum: A Chromatographic Approach to Evaluating Learning Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Why Do Accumulated Transformations Extrapolate?	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Swarm-Inspired Generation of Collective Behaviors in Graph Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.63	AI translation of literary texts is "fine", but readers still prefer human translations	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Emcar: Embodied Controller for Animating Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.63	Stage-Aware and Roughness-Constrained Diffusion Policy for Multi-Stage Robotic Polishing	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Large-Scale Tunnel Air--Ground Collaboration With FLISP: Fast LiDAR-IMU Synchronized Path Planne	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	Commerge: Communication-Efficient, Robust, and Fast LiDAR Map Merging Framework for Multi-Robot Coordination in Resource-Constrained Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.63	WaveForward: An Omnidirectional Passive Wheeled Quadruped Robot with Casters	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.63	Swazure: Swarm Measurement of Pose for Flying Light Specks	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	BFMTrack: Latent Sequence Optimization for Physics-Based Motion Tracking with Behavioral Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-26	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.63	Learning to Fold: prizewinning solution at LeHome Challenge 2026 (1st place online, 2nd offline)	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Heavy-Ball Q-Learning with Residual Weighting Correction	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Inherited Circuits, Learned Semantics: How Fine-Tuning Creates Evasion Vulnerabilities Invisible to Standard Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Confidence-Aware Tool Orchestration for Robust Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-25	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.63	SamaVaani: Auditing and Debiasing Multilingual Clinical ASR for Indian Languages	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.63	MLFFM-SegDiff: A Multi-Level Feature Fusion Diffusion Model for Skin Lesion Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	From Hallucination to Grounding: Diagnosing Visual Spatial Intelligence via CRISP	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Multipath Adaptive Gated Bottleneck Latent ODE with Raman Data Fusion for Cell Culture Process Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.63	NeuraDock Visual Cognitive Load Agent Tutorial: A Quality-Gated Open-Source EEG Workflow for Alpha Dynamics and Real-Time Applications	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.63	Geometry-Aware MCTS for Extremal Problems in Combinatorial Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	What We are Missing in Multimodal LLM Evaluation?	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.63	What We are Missing in Multimodal LLM Evaluation?	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	RolloutPipe: Overlapping Pipelined Rollout and Training in Disaggregated On-Policy LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.63	Erase-then-Delta Attention: Decoupling Erase and Write Addresses in Delta-Rule Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	The Generalization Spectrum: A Chromatographic Approach to Evaluating Learning Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Bridging Handheld and Teleoperated Supervision for Contact-Rich Manipulation via State-Gated Experts	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	GRAINS: Storage-Aware Algorithm-Architecture Co-Design Enabling High-Performance and Low-Cost Graph-Based Genome Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-19	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.63	Will I work 9/9/6 for the rest of 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	How much VRAM will the RTX 6090 have?	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_029 Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. Nvidia	Semis/Products	79%
0.63	Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) (CIK 0001706946)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	14%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 30?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-30	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.63	Using Large Language Models as Low-Cost Statistical Estimators for Human-Response Data	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Defending Against Harmful Supervision Hidden in Benign Samples	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	TopoAgent: An Agentic Framework for Automated Topology Learning in Medical Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	ScAle: Attention Head Scaling as a Minimal Adapter for Spatial Reasoning in Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-28	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	A Hybrid Framework For Crypto-Ransomware Detection In Enterprise Shared Storage	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	Attractor States Emerge in Multi-Turn LLM Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Curvature-Weighted Gradient Diversity: A Noise Measure for Geometry-Adaptive SGD Schedules	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Your Data Manifold is Secretly a Reward Model: Shell-LCC for Text-to-Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Improved Predictive Performance and Interpretability for Mesomorphic Neural Networks Using Local Fidelity Regularization	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Decision-Value Attribution in Predict-then-Optimize Systems	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	The Forgetting-Retention Dilemma: Certified Unlearning Theory in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	MemLeak: Diagnosing Information Leaks in Multimodal Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	MaDI-Bench: An End-to-End Data Integration Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.63	SurrogateShield: Beyond Redaction for High-Utility, Privacy-Preserving LLM Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	MIThinker: A Plug-and-Play Policy-Optimized Thinker For Motivational Interviewing Counseling	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Chronos: A Physics-Informed Full-History Framework for Non-Markovian Long-Horizon Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	KYON: Semi-Modular Wheel-Legged Quadruped With Agile Bimanual Capability	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Lateral String Stability for Vehicle Platoons	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	CORE: Common Outcome Regularities from Action-Free Visual Demonstrations for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	MTD-Map: Single-Stage Long-Term LiDAR Map Maintenance Framework via Mixture Transition Distribution	arxiv 2026-06-28	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	PolicyGuard: From Organizational Policies to Neuro-SymbolicCompliance Review Engines	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.63	Introduction to Stochastic Differential Equations for Generative Machine Learning: A Variational Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-30	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.63	Introduction to Stochastic Differential Equations for Generative Machine Learning: A Variational Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Surprise as a Signal for Plasticity and Metacognition	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Mixture-of-Control: State-Aware Fine-Tuning for Transformer-based Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	CSO-LLM: Class Subspace Orthogonalization for Post-Training Backdoor Detection and Trigger Inversion in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	ComplianceGate: Classifier-Gated Multi-Tier LLM Routing for Inference in Regulated Industries	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Personalizing Marketplace Policies with Competing Objectives and Constrained Experiments: Evidence from a Job Marketplace	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Predictable GRPO: A Closed-Form Model of Training Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	FDA NDA220073: ELIQUIS (APIXABAN) — BRISTOL	fda 2026-06-24	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Right in the Right Way: LM Training with Verifiable Rewards and Human Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Muon as a Residual Connection	arxiv 2026-07-01	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Function-Counting Theory for Low-Dimensional Data Structures	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Aionoscope: Debugging Latent-State Accessibility in Time-Series Representations	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	Task-Relevant Representation Decoupling for Visual Reinforcement Learning Generalization	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Task-Relevant Representation Decoupling for Visual Reinforcement Learning Generalization	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Loss Smoothing for Stable Adaptation Under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-07-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Learning Generalizable Skill Policy with Data-Efficient Unsupervised RL	arxiv 2026-07-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	HydraCollab: Adaptive Collaborative-Perception for Distributed Autonomous Systems	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	FRAME: Learning the Adaptation Domain with a Mixture of Fractional-Fourier Experts	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	FDA ANDA206986: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — ALVOGEN	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 5?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will I reach 300 Questions by August 18, 2026 (8/18/26)? (This is my 151st.)(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-07-04	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.63	AnyGroundBench: A Specialized-Domain Benchmark for Video Grounding in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	AnyGroundBench: A Specialized-Domain Benchmark for Video Grounding in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Purified OPSD: On-Policy Self-Distillation Without Losing How to Think	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	UA-ChatDev: Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Agent Collaboration for Reliable Software Development	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.63	A rubric-based controlled comparison of frontier language models on expert-authored clinical reasoning tasks	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	A rubric-based controlled comparison of frontier language models on expert-authored clinical reasoning tasks	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Traceable Fault Diagnosis for Battery Energy Storage Systems via Retrieval-Augmented Multi-Agent O&M Assistant	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Beyond Gradient-Based Attacks: Adversarial Robustness and Explainability Stability in Cybersecurity Classifiers	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Scaling with Confidence: Calibrating Confidence of LLMs for Adaptive Test Time Scaling	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	DiPS: Dialogue Policy Selection for High-Stakes Persuasion Agents	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Evolutionary Feature Engineering for Structured Data	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	An Optimisation Framework for the Well-Conditioned Training of Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-07-02	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Zeus: Towards Tuning-Free Foundation Model for Time Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Lynx: Progressive Speculative Quantization for accelerating KV Transfer in Long-Context Inference	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Gaming Consensus: Coordinated Manipulation in Crowdsourced Fact-Checking	arxiv 2026-07-02	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Wind-Aware Reinforcement Learning Control of a Small Quadrotor Using Learned Onboard Wind Estimation in Simulated Atmospheric Turbulence	arxiv 2026-07-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	The risk of KV cache compression	arxiv 2026-07-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	CheckRLM: Effective Knowledge-Thought Coherence Checking in Retrieval-Augmented Reasoning	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Unlocking Speech-Text Compositional Powers: Instruction-Following Speech Language Models without Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	VLA-Corrector: Lightweight Detect-and-Correct Inference for Adaptive Action Horizon	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.63	facebookresearch/nevergrad 1.0.12	github_release 2025-04-23	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.63	facebookresearch/nevergrad 1.0.7	github_release 2024-11-28	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.63	facebookresearch/nevergrad 1.0.0	github_release 2023-10-10	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	28%
0.63	facebookresearch/nevergrad 0.11.0	github_release 2023-07-25	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	28%
0.63	facebookresearch/nevergrad v0.3.2	github_release 2020-02-05	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 7?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 7?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 7?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 7?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.63	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 7?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 6-12?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.63	What will be the name of macOS 28?	manifold 2026-07-06	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.63	Standing seats on regular commercial flights by end of 2027?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-07-05	242_019 EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	50%
0.63	facebookresearch/NeuralCompression v0.2.2	github_release 2023-06-14	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	TREK: Distill to Explore, Reinforce to Refine	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	MoP-JEPA: Hard-Assigned Predictor Mixtures for Stochastic JEPA World Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	SILO: Simulation-in-the-Loop Sim-to-Real Transfer for Multi-Stage Cable Routing	arxiv 2026-07-06	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	EEG-SpikeAgent: Agentic Closed-Loop Program Synthesis for Automated EEG Spike Detection	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Operator-on-F complements value-equivalence: a planning-time diagnostic for latent world models	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	A Deep Learning-based surrogate model for Severe Accidents in nuclear reactors using ASTEC	arxiv 2026-07-05	INF_053 Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S... Isaiah Taylor	Energy	28%
0.63	Wan-Streamer v0.2: Higher Resolution, Same Latency	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	ResearchStudio-Reel: Automate the Last Mile of Research from Paper to Poster, Video, and Blog	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_002 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.63	Covert Trait Propagation Is Representation Alignment: Mechanistic Evidence from Hidden-Channel Distillation	arxiv 2026-07-05	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	LLM-as-a-Tutor: Policy-Aware Prompt Adaptation for Non-Verifiable RL	arxiv 2026-07-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	A Clustering-Based Framework for Identifying Suspicious Trading Patterns in Capital Market	arxiv 2026-07-05	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.63	Conflict-Based Lazy Search for Fast Multi-Manipulator Planning	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.63	Parametric Memory Decoding for Zero-Shot Routing in LoRA-Based External Parametric Memory	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.63	Parametric Memory Decoding for Zero-Shot Routing in LoRA-Based External Parametric Memory	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Is the Geometry Doing the Work? An Operating-Point Audit of Hierarchy in Hyperbolic Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	MeGA-MP: Metric Graph Advection Message Passing -- A Physics-Informed Message Passing Operator for Advection-Dominated Metric Graphs	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Reliability and Identifiability in Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Variance Decomposition, Stability Bounds, and the Identifiability of Heterogeneous News Reaction	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	Constrained Flow Matching via Lagrangian Dual Flows	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	How Many Initial Points Does Bayesian Optimization Need?	arxiv 2026-07-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	FedFFT: Taming Client Drift in Federated SAM via Spectral Perturbation Filtering	arxiv 2026-07-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	GPU-Accelerated Polygonal Signed Distance Functions for Real-Time Collision Avoidance	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	facebookresearch/mmf v0.3	github_release 2019-06-26	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.63	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 6-12?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on July 9?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 5x subscription on July 14 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-07-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Industry Classification of GitHub Repositories Using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Industry Classification of GitHub Repositories Using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)	arxiv 2026-07-07	S_AGI_FAST_2027 AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09	agi_general_capability	30%
0.63	Pitwall: Faithful Natural-Language Race-Strategy Briefings from a Calibrated Real-Time Monte Carlo Engine	arxiv 2026-07-07	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	53%
0.63	Pitwall: Faithful Natural-Language Race-Strategy Briefings from a Calibrated Real-Time Monte Carlo Engine	arxiv 2026-07-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Harnessing Code Agents for Automatic Software Verification	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	LongCrafter: Towards Diverse Long-Context Understanding via Evidence-Graph-Guided Instruction Synthesis	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Faithful or Findable? Evaluating LLM-Generated Metadata for RDF Dataset Search	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.63	PCBWorld: A Benchmark Environment for Engine-Grounded PCB Design Automation	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	Hierarchical Classification via Cascading Feature Elimination: Application to Human Phenotype Ontology-Aligned Facial Phenotyping (FaceMesh2HPO)	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	EntroPath: Maximum Entropy Path Ensemble Embedding for Manifold Learning	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Is Domain Adaptation Always Helpful? A Frozen-Backbone Study of Cross-Domain Sentiment Transfer	arxiv 2026-07-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Multimodal Molecular Representation Learning with Graph Neural Networks, Deep & Cross Networks, and SMILES Embeddings	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	CurateEvo: Data-Curation Evolving for Agentic Post-Training	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Why does Deep Learning Improve Visual SLAM?	arxiv 2026-07-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Image2Sim: Scaling Embodied Navigation via Generative Neural Simulator	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	16%
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-04-29	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.63	Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-04-29	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.63	What percentage uptime will the Unofficial GitHub Status Page show for the last 90 Days on May 31st, 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.63	Will a Waymo self-driving car be involved in a fatal accident before July 1, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	243_003 By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	46%
0.63	When will consumer AI be able to read me a book	manifold 2026-04-25	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	32%
0.63	Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-25	229_019 Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. Brett Adcock	Robotics	30%
0.63	Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	12%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	align algn q1 2026 earnings 234310283.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Xi Jinping out by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.63	Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Will NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day mention the Moon when this resolves?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-04-30	232_048 Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-01-09	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	42%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.63	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	ROB_018 The 'Enterprise Singularity' — Amazon will soon become the first major corporation where robots contribute more to the bottom line than human employees; by end of 2025 Amazon had deployed over 1 million robots while human hiring plateaued, decoupling c... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	52%
0.63	Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will US average gas price reach … in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.63	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-02	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	33%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-04	IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	23%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.63	Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-04	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.63	Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.63	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.63	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) (CIK 0001375365)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.63	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.63	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	FDA ANDA214398: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.34.0	github_release 2026-05-04	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.34.0	github_release 2026-05-04	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.33.0	github_release 2026-04-28	230_046 OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. Dave Blundin	AI	43%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.26.0	github_release 2026-03-05	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.63	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc3	github_release 2026-01-26	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	pytorch/pytorch v2.8.0	github_release 2025-08-06	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.63	pytorch/pytorch v2.5.0	github_release 2024-10-17	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on May 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on May 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	will [redacted] occur as of saturday(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-06	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-05	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.63	Trump Xi Summit Prop Bets	manifold 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Safety and accuracy follow different scaling laws in clinical large language models	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.63	Feature-Augmented Transformers for Robust AI-Text Detection Across Domains and Generators	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	PatRe: A Full-Stage Office Action and Rebuttal Generation Benchmark for Patent Examination	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Detecting Stealth Sycophancy in Mental-Health Dialogue with Dynamic Emotional Signature Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Programmatic Context Augmentation for LLM-based Symbolic Regression	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Refining Compositional Diffusion for Reliable Long-Horizon Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Perceptual Flow Network for Visually Grounded Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	SAIL: Structure-Aware Interpretable Learning for Anatomy-Aligned Post-hoc Explanations in OCT	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Graph Neural Networks in the Wilson Loop Representation of Abelian Lattice Gauge Theories	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	StreakMind: AI detection and analysis of satellite streaks in astronomical images with automated database integration	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.63	Pairwise matrices for sparse autoencoders: single-feature inspection mislabels causal axes	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Adaptive Data Compression and Reconstruction for Memory-Bounded EEG Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Dimensionality-Aware Anomaly Detection in Learned Representations of Self-Supervised Speech Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.63	CARD: Coarse-to-fine Autoregressive Modeling with Radix-based Decomposition for Transferable Free Energy Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	A Novel Preprocessing-Driven Approach to Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction Using Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN)	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Efficient Preference Poisoning Attack on Offline RLHF	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.63	Reference-Sampled Boltzmann Projection for KL-Regularized RLVR: Target-Matched Weighted SFT, Finite One-Shot Gaps, and Policy Mirror Descent	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Reproducing Complex Set-Compositional Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	LLM-XTM: Enhancing Cross-Lingual Topic Models with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Tibetan-TTS:Low-Resource Tibetan Speech Synthesis with Large Model Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.63	Leveraging Argument Structure to Predict Content Hatefulness	arxiv 2026-05-04	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	Bucketing the Good Apples: A Method for Diagnosing and Improving Causal Abstraction	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Robotic Desk Organization: A Multi-Primitive Approach to Manipulating Heterogeneous Objects via Environmental Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Albertian Channel Memory in Black-Hole Evaporation	arxiv 2026-05-04	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	FDA ANDA090263: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — CHARTWELL MOLECULAR	fda 2026-04-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	TabEmbed: Benchmarking and Learning Generalist Embeddings for Tabular Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.6	github_release 2020-09-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	facebookresearch/balance 0.11.0	github_release 2025-09-24	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.31	github_release 2025-06-25	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%