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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.69 | Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 38% | |
| 0.69 | Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | |
| 0.69 | Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.69 | Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. Peter Diamandis | Space | 33% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.69 | Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-15 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-17 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-18 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-01 | AI_008 Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the intelligence explosion begins — compressing roughly a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into a single year and culminating in Superintelligence by 2030. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 29% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.69 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis | AI | 39% | |
| 0.69 | Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.69 | Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.69 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | |
| 0.69 | Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.69 | New gemini version out in june(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.69 | Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.69 | Google model beats Anthropic on LMArena by EOY26(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.69 | Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_055 Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space Peter Diamandis | Space | 51% | ||
| 0.69 | Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.69 | Will May 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 77.0%?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 241_023 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers Eric Schmidt | Energy | 49% | |
| 0.69 | Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.69 | SpaceX closes above $250 at end of month?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 240_027 SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 74% | |
| 0.69 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | |
| 0.69 | Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.69 | Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.69 | Google model beats Anthropic on LMArena by EOY26(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.69 | Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.69 | Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.69 | Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 236_030 AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live Andrew Yang | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 32% | ||
| 0.69 | Glosso IPO By 2027?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.69 | Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.69 | Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-23 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-22 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.69 | Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.69 | Humanoid robot walking around me within three years?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.69 | Will SpaceX launch a rocket in the next 24h?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | |
| 0.69 | Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-17 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | ||
| 0.69 | Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. Dave Blundin | Robotics | 35% | |
| 0.69 | Will ChatGPT personal finance release for Plus Plans in 2026?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.69 | Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.69 | Will Apple mention Anthropic or Claude in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-05-31 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.69 | Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 28% | ||
| 0.69 | Will Bitcoin be at 71K or higher at end of week?(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.69 | Will DeepSWE be ≥90% solved at <$5/task before 2027?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | |
| 0.69 | Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-13 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.69 | Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.69 | Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-21 | INF_018 SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. Elon Musk | Space | 20% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.69 | GPT-5.6 released by July 10?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-22 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.68 | Will 2+ bots beat master league in 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 229_014 Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 35% | |
| 0.68 | 30T market cap company before 2030?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 230_038 AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 9% | ||
| 0.68 | Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.68 | Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX catch Ship before New Glenn RTF?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-30 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.68 | Artemis III launches before 2029?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 248_042 A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.68 | Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-26 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | ||
| 0.68 | Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 35% | |
| 0.68 | Will the NASDAQ crash before Aug 30, 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | ROB_002 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. Kevin Weil | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Americans or China get to the Moon By 2030(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-16 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.68 | Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 235_024 In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. Alex Wissner-Gross | Energy | 7% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.68 | Will AI beat humans at AtCoder World Tour Finals 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. Peter Diamandis | Space | 33% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.68 | Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 230_051 Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 240_027 SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 74% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.68 | Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | ROB_011 An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. Elon Musk | Space | 9% | |
| 0.68 | Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.68 | Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_051 AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things Eric Schmidt | AI | 38% | |
| 0.68 | Will May 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 77.0%?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 40% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.68 | Glosso IPO By 2027?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | |
| 0.68 | Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 232_054 SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. Ben Horowitz | AI | 42% | |
| 0.68 | Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.68 | Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.68 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.68 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.68 | Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.68 | Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.68 | SpaceX closes above $250 at end of month?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.68 | Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | |
| 0.68 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | 45% | |
| 0.68 | Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 29% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-16 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.68 | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.68 | Will 2+ bots beat master league in 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.68 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 229_029 Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.68 | Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.68 | Will AI beat humans at AtCoder World Tour Finals 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.68 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | |
| 0.68 | Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 34% | |
| 0.68 | Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.68 | Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket](market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.68 | Longevity escape velocity before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.68 | Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 29% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. Peter Diamandis | Space | 33% | |
| 0.68 | Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% |