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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Tim Elliott be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Valencia vs. Joventut(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Germany (-3.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kazuma Okamoto win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? (market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-19 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 24% | |
| 0.57 | Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Brazil vs Panama(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-10 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 164.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Iran full airspace closure by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dayana Yastremska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 231_026 Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. Dave Blundin | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: Mandatory vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Cary: William Manning vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Wimbledon ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Arthur Fery(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: Neither team to score first?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2025-09-15 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Belgium?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Belgium?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Morocco?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Iran leadership change by July 31?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Surrey vs Sussex(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Morocco?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 11% | |
| 0.57 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 21% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Solary vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Sabres vs. Bruins(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Francavilla: Andrea Guerrieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-02-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: mCon esports vs The Bandits (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | ||
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | |
| 0.57 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | IND_004 True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-12 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis | AI | 54% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-14 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Gauff vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? (market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Avalanche(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Ebola case in the US by June 30?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 245_017 Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-01-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will David Brekalo win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will David Njoku play for Indianapolis Colts in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 29% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.57 | Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 234_039 Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 26% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will David Njoku play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2025-07-06 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Knicks(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will George Pickens play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will George Pickens play for Buffalo Bills in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Miami Marlins win the 2026 NL East title?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.57 | Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Angela Dugalic win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Athletics (-1.5)(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Eury Perez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.57 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley | Robotics | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2025-12-19 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.57 | Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 233_020 Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher program. Joe Liemandt | Education | 77% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-03-12 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | |
| 0.57 | Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 164.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 231_026 Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. Dave Blundin | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Argentina?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% |