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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will i get off at least one waitlist, (promys, ross, sumac)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 232_038 Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 43% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 24% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_046 Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independence, pursuing self-sufficiency in critical materials and domestic manufacturing capacity to support Sovereign AI initiatives — extending beyond G7 to mid-sized nations (Estonia... Morgan Stanley | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-19 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 58% | ||
| 0.57 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Hunter Biden run for US President during his lifetime?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 241_049 Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 14% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will France win the world cup(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | The Whaleslayer Coinflip V2(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July 2027?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 10?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Kalshi or Polymarket be acquired by EOY 2027?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Taylor Swift announce she’s pregnant by Swiftmas (Dec. 13)?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will anyone managram me 5000 mana in 1 week?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Platner drop out by the end of Friday?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Platner drop out by the end of Friday?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Roman Space Telescope launch be a success?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | 248_021 Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. Dave Blundin | Space | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | @MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 229_022 Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_024 Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 51% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 245_020 Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry Ben Lamm | Other | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 33% | |
| 0.57 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will the US strike Oman before June 16?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 229_032 Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis | Energy | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Israel hold an election in 2027?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_059 Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems Peter Diamandis | Energy | 54% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | will x have a significant other
by the end of ross(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | |
| 0.57 | will x have a significant other
by the end of ross(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | ||
| 0.57 | Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-28 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | Will a meteor hit earth tomorrow?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_040 A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will this century's World Cup winners advance to the round of 16?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 22% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_020 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers Eric Schmidt | Energy | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | 巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will USA beat Belgium? | ⚽ 2026 FIFA World Cup(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kalshi or Polymarket be acquired by EOY 2027?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack | Technology | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (dualism)(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Roman Space Telescope launch be a success?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 21% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby finish in under 2:02.00?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman | AI | 18% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 243_032 Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | |
| 0.57 | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% |