Validations Queue

114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 60 of 61, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.55polymarket
2026-05-26
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-03
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-04
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-13
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
238_049
Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport55%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
246_021
GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI38%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-27
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-27
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.55polymarket
2026-03-30
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-26
S_MARS_2028
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
mars_uncrewed_landing50%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
248_016
ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
248_016
ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.55polymarket
2025-11-14
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-26
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
SEM_026
Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Products62%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-12
CMQ_034
HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory84%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
S_AGI_SLOW_2031
AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path
agi_general_capability25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics15%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-08
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
242_037
China will land on the moon before end of 2030
China (government)
Space37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
CMQ_034
HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory84%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_015
Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics62%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-10
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-15
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
232_024
San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy34%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-17
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-12
232_024
San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy34%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-05
243_035
Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport50%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-16
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-09
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-09
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
238_072
Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days
Emad Mostaque
AI74%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-01
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
231_025
Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-20
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-15
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-17
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2025-11-14
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-22
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.55polymarket
2025-12-04
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
238_020
Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI61%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-22
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-21
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
248_015
Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs50%
0.55polymarket
2026-03-25
S_RECESSION_2027
NBER recession declared 2027
macro_recession30%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-22
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory20%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
231_025
Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-30
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
238_048
US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics45%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-01
238_015
Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)
Brent Bornick
Robotics42%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-01
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-06
236_040
CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs42%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-03
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-18
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-02
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-01
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-01
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-01
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-05
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-06
248_031
Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity39%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-06
231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-06
SEM_026
Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Products62%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-01
243_035
Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport50%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-05
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-05
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-07
244_012
Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks41%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-05
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-05
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-07
248_031
Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity39%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-07
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-03-09
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI20%
0.55polymarket
2026-03-26
CMQ_018
By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Geopolitics35%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-23
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.55polymarket
2025-07-03
246_030
DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.55polymarket
2025-06-19
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-08
237_025
We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected.
Peter Diamandis
AI59%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-08
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-17
242_026
Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport38%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-26
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-24
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-24
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55
Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%)
polymarket
2026-04-25
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-25
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-25
236_025
Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes
Andrew Yang
Real Estate42%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-01
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-26
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-17
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-27
SEM_003
Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy/Compute86%
0.55polymarket
2025-07-10
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
238_020
Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI61%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55
Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%)
polymarket
2026-05-01
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2025-11-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-05
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-05
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics15%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-28
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics15%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55
Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-07
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-18
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-07
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-30
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-02
232_024
San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy34%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-18
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-07
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-18
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-07
234_004
Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-07
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
232_024
San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy34%
0.55polymarket
2025-12-17
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-05
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-18
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-08
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.55polymarket
2025-07-16
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
232_024
San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy34%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-08
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory20%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-02
SEM_028
Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-02
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2025-11-14
247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial
Peter Diamandis
AI71%
0.55polymarket
2025-12-30
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2025-09-15
248_041
Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit.
Peter Diamandis
Space45%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-11
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-11
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-12
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-13
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-14
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-13
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-13
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-25
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-09
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-16
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-15
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-15
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-11
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-11
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-16
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-12
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-12
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-18
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2025-07-10
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-18
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-15
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-14
231_019
Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Other39%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-24
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-28
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-24
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-28
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-28
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-29
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-25
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-29
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-18
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-31
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-30
248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space12%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-30
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI42%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-28
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-28
231_025
Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-31
244_033
Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks51%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-25
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-27
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-01
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-27
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-03
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-29
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-04
243_035
Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport50%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-30
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-05
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-03
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-31
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-06
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-05
INF_039
Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v...
Alex Finn
Consumer77%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-24
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
248_016
ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-16
241_031
Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement
Eric Schmidt
AI48%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space10%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-05
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-05
246_054
Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-08
SPC_020
Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst...
Brett Adcock
Auto/Transport26%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-08
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics15%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
248_016
ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-01-02
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55
Valencia vs. Joventut(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-06-08
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
CMQ_034
HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory84%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-26
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory20%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
238_040
Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-08
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-08
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory20%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics15%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-21
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics16%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-21
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics16%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-15
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-14
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-16
229_002
Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.
Brett Adcock
Robotics56%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
247_047
Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030
Peter Diamandis
Energy50%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-09
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-09
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-01
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-19
238_072
Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days
Emad Mostaque
AI74%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-19
238_072
Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days
Emad Mostaque
AI74%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-19
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-19
229_004
By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.
Brett Adcock
Geopolitics41%
0.55polymarket
2026-02-19
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-13
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-15
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-07
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-19
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-19
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-15
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-12
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-15
247_003
Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-19
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-06-20
247_057
Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI28%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-17
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-10
244_033
Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks51%
0.55polymarket
2026-03-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.55polymarket
2026-03-01
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-22
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics16%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2025-11-14
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.55polymarket
2026-01-15
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-19
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2025-12-04
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
238_020
Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI61%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-18
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-22
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
SEM_026
Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Products62%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-23
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics20%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-24
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
238_049
Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport55%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-25
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-30
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
238_048
US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics45%
0.55polymarket
2026-04-09
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-30
INF_039
Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v...
Alex Finn
Consumer77%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-26
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.55
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
248_031
Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity39%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-27
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-03
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-02
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-02
IND_011
2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r...
Jason Calacanis
Macro/Economy58%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-03
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-03
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-01
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-01
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.55polymarket
2026-06-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.55polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%