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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 233_014 Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. Dave Blundin | Biotech/Longevity | 32% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-27 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 236_031 Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 51% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 234_042 AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 47% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be at 71K or higher at end of week?(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | |
| 0.64 | New gemini version out in june(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-09 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-14 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-20 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.64 | Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-22 | SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch | Space | 70% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will my Trader bonuses exceed 100,000 for the June 2026 season?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 21% | |
| 0.64 | Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 29% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | SpaceX pivots away from xAI(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Silver price *stays* under $69 in July 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.64 | Google model beats Anthropic on LMArena by EOY26(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 230_017 Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-25 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis | Space | 28% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 26% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 246_044 Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Will 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 2026(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-24 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_032 AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 33% | |
| 0.64 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.64 | Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.64 | Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.64 | Will I keep my duolingo streak through the end of this year (2026)(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-13 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | Will this market get between 20-60 unique traders by the end of June?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.64 | Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | CMQ_014 Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI/Compute | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.64 | Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.64 | pltr up in 1 month(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 24% | |
| 0.64 | pltr up in 1 month(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz | Semis | 71% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-19 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.64 | Free Lottery (radiation domination end)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-26 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_012 Jobs impact from AI will occur at some point Eric Schmidt | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 16% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | Will jesus respawn before 2027????(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.64 | Will jesus respawn before 2027????(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-30 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.64 | Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.64 | Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-05 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.64 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 35% | |
| 0.64 | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 244_002 Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.64 | Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 232_028 In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. Ben Horowitz | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_051 AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things Eric Schmidt | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | Will there be 100+ HackerNews stories posted in 24h?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.64 | Will ChatGPT personal finance release for Plus Plans in 2026?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | ||
| 0.64 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.64 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.64 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.64 | Will BTC hit $70k in June after market creation?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 237_004 Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. Peter Diamandis | Consumer | 55% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-22 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | ||
| 0.64 | Silver price *stays* under $69 in July 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.64 | Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 58% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin reach $90K USD in May 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Will a real Scientologist trade on this market?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | |
| 0.64 | Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.64 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.64 | Will SPY be above 720.65 on market close May 8th?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.64 | Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.64 | Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_056 Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-06 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-13 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.64 | Will commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Will this market get between 10-20 unique traders by June 20?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-17 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | ||
| 0.64 | Will this market get 20-30 unique traders by June 29?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be at or above 75k at the end of the month?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-22 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-23 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Flexmode raise at $100M valuation before December 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-26 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Will jesus respawn before 2027????(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-30 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-01 | ROB_002 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. Kevin Weil | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 240_024 Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate Marc Andreessen | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Will TheTechQuant reach 200 followers by Jun 1 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 64% | ||
| 0.64 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 239_015 Tesla output per employee will become very very high Elon Musk | Labor/Jobs | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.64 | Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | |
| 0.64 | Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | |
| 0.64 | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.64 | Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 234_040 Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America Elon Musk | Real Estate | 32% | |
| 0.64 | Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.64 | Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_041 Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 71% | |
| 0.64 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | SPC_005 AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided $150M-$200M for 2026) to approximately $1 billion by 2027 — driven by direct-to-cell satellite technology commercialization. Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 56% | |
| 0.64 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | ||
| 0.64 | “Will Elon Musk mention Dogecoin before June ends?”(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.64 | Will the May 2026 US CPI year-over-year reading come in above 2.8%?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.64 | Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.64 | Will I hold a session at Less.Online 2026(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-27 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 238_044 Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 32% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Software | 56% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-07 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | Will I keep my duolingo streak through the end of this year (2026)(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.64 | Will I keep my duolingo streak through the end of this year (2026)(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.64 | Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.64 | [Short Fuse] Will Anthropi reset Max users' limit in the next 7 days?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-12 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | ||
| 0.64 | Will I meet a trader on this market at Manifest 2026?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-13 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | ||
| 0.64 | Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-20 | SPC_026 Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND the singularity (post-2045) — Kurzweil asserts only after humanity has 'exhausted the ability of here on Earth to create more intelligence' will the focus shift definitively to ... Ray Kurzweil | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 232_030 AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money. Ben Horowitz | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-27 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-01 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Gemini 3.5 Pro be released on the Gemini API by July 12?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.64 | Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 38% | |
| 0.64 | Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Humans have consciousness [Convince the Machine #3](market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. Dave Blundin | AI | 37% | |
| 0.64 | Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.64 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Intel trade below $94 in May?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen | AI | 47% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.64 | Will my prediction market idea win?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 22% | |
| 0.64 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | ROB_011 An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. Elon Musk | Space | 9% | |
| 0.64 | Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.64 | Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.64 | Will I successfully refer someone for Ṁ1,000?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.64 | Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 22% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.64 | Star在月底会达到0.01美金吗？(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Putin, Xi Jinping, or Kim Jong Un out by 2028(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Arlan get 1 million users by July 1st, 2026?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-25 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.64 | SpaceX pivots away from xAI(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 62% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-27 | SPC_026 Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND the singularity (post-2045) — Kurzweil asserts only after humanity has 'exhausted the ability of here on Earth to create more intelligence' will the focus shift definitively to ... Ray Kurzweil | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-30 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will UK AISI be gutted in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.63 | Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 53% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 35% | ||
| 0.63 | Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.63 | Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | |
| 0.63 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | |
| 0.63 | Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.63 | Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.63 | Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn | Consumer | 31% | |
| 0.63 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 21% | |
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.63 | Any new Veo model released during Google I/O(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.63 | 2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 239_024 Everyone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest person Elon Musk | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.63 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack | Space | 33% | |
| 0.63 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | 18% | |
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-06 | INF_044 US total energy consumption will rise by approximately 10% over the next decade — the largest sustained-growth period since mid-20th-century industrialization — driven by AI data centers, electrification of transport, and reindustrialization. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I keep my duolingo streak through the end of this year (2026)(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | Will BTC hit $70k in June after market creation?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-25 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-26 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will UK AISI be gutted in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 34% | |
| 0.63 | Will fatespeaker reach Candidate Master on Codeforces before 2027?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-29 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.63 | Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.63 | will [redacted] occur as of saturday(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.63 | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk | AI | 48% | |
| 0.63 | Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.63 | Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 29% | |
| 0.63 | Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 235_009 Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. Dave Blundin | Defense | 32% | |
| 0.63 | Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 US CPI year-over-year reading come in above 2.8%?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will ChatGPT personal finance release for Plus Plans in 2026?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.63 | Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-26 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.63 | Will 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 2026(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the S&P500 close at 7650.00 or higher in June 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 32% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.63 | Will England become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Will this market get between 10-20 unique traders by June 20?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.63 | Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-17 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-21 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 241_039 In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.63 | Will this market trade yes or no?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Will TheTechQuant reach 200 followers by Jun 1 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.63 | Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 17% | |
| 0.63 | Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-03 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.63 | Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $85K in May?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | |
| 0.63 | Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | |
| 0.63 | Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin | Media/Ads | 32% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.63 | Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.63 | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_021 Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 237_004 Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. Peter Diamandis | Consumer | 55% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.63 | 30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-08 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.63 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.63 | Will it rain at manifest 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.63 | Will this market get between 10-20 unique traders by June 20?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Compute | 42% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | 30% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.63 | Will I work 9/9/6 for the rest of 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-29 | SEM_029 Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. Nvidia | Semis/Products | 79% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-30 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 243_003 By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.63 | Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 229_019 Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 30% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 232_048 Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | |
| 0.63 | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.63 | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.63 | will [redacted] occur as of saturday(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.63 | Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.63 | US x China tariff agreement by May 31st? [Polymarket](market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-12 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.63 | Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | |
| 0.63 | will there be a new llm release by the end of may?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.63 | Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 32% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb | AI | 62% |