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114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 55 of 528, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.67	SOLAR: AI-Powered Speed-of-Light Performance Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.67	MiniOpt: Reasoning to Model and Solve General Optimization Problems with Limited Resources	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Axon: A Synthesizing Superoptimizer for Tensor Programs	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Scalable Behavior Cloning with Open Data, Training, and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Scalable Behavior Cloning with Open Data, Training, and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	From Detecting Agency to Doing Work: Self-Caused Credit Builds a Durable Behavioral Self in a Minimal Spiking Agent	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	SFBench: The SciFy Scientific Feasibility Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	SCARCE: Scalable Cascade Analysis for Rare-event Characterisation via Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	How AI settled the complexity of the oldest SGD algorithm	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	The Joint Effect of Quantization and Sampling Temperature on LLM Safety Alignment: A Factorial Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Agent-Computer Observation Interfaces Enable Dynamic Computer Use	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Comparing Chatbot Performance Enhanced with Persistent Homology	arxiv 2026-06-29	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.67	The Complexity Ceiling Benchmark: A Multi-Domain Evaluation of Sequential Reasoning Under Depth Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Trajectory Optimization for Collision-Aware Redundant Robotic Multi-Axis Additive Manufacturing by Constrained Gradient Projection	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	CORE: Common Outcome Regularities from Action-Free Visual Demonstrations for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Learning Transferable Dynamics Priors from Action to World Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.67	Learning from Failure: Inference-Time Self-Improvement for Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-30	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.67	Can LLMs Imagine Moral Alternatives Beyond Binary Dilemmas?	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Knowledge Distillation from Large Reasoning Models to Compact Student Models: A Case Study on the John O Bryan Mathematics Competition	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.67	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	When AI meets quantum information: A comprehensive review	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will UK AISI be gutted in 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-07-04	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.67	Beyond Adam: SOAP and Muon for Faster, Label-Efficient Training of Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Reasoning effort, not tool access, buys first-try reliability in agentic code generation: an observational study	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	AgenticSTS: A Bounded-Memory Testbed for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Towards Load-Aware Prefill Deflection for Disaggregated LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.67	PACE: A Proxy for Agentic Capability Evaluation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.67	SkillCoach: Self-Evolving Rubrics for Evaluating and Enhancing Agentic Skill-Use	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	EO-Agents: A Three-Agent LLM Pipeline for Earth Observation Hypothesis Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.67	Real-Time Visual Intelligence on Low-Cost UAVs: A Modular Approach for Tracking, Scanning, and Navigation	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	SPLC: Social Preference Learning for Crowd Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will fatespeaker reach Candidate Master on Codeforces before 2027?(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-07-04	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 6-12?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 6-12?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 6-12?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will AI beat humans at AtCoder World Tour Finals 2026?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-07-06	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.67	FDA ANDA217737: IOHEXOL (IOHEXOL) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Search Beyond What Can Be Taught: Evolving the Knowledge Boundary in Agentic Visual Generation	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	GaP: A Graph-as-Policy Multi-Agent Self-Learning Harness For Variational Automation Tasks	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	SovereignPA-Bench: Evaluating User-Owned Personal Agents under Evolving Intent, Platform Mediation, and Consent Constraints	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	MoP-JEPA: Hard-Assigned Predictor Mixtures for Stochastic JEPA World Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	An Exploration of Agentic Information Fusion for Test Maintenance Prediction	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	ToolFailBench: Diagnosing Tool-Use Failures in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Compressed Computation under $L^4$ Loss is likely Computation in Superposition	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	DuplexChat: Constructing Speaker-Separated Full-Duplex Dialogue Speech at Scale for Spoken Dialogue Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Governed Caste Reassignment in Heterogeneous Swarms: An Asymmetric-Trust Protocol with Audited Operator Countersignature	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 9?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-07-08	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.67	Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Multi Objective Battery Management in Dairy Farms	arxiv 2026-07-07	INF_058 The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized solar + residential/commercial battery storage will shift power management toward microgrids where local DNOs optimize autonomously, turning millions of ho... Andrew Yang	Energy	52%
0.67	Danus: Orchestrating Mathematical Reasoning Agents with Fact-Graph Memory	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Propose and Attend: Training-free MLLM Grounding Confidence via Multi-Token Localized Attention	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Beyond Refusal: A Same-Lineage Study of Aligned and Abliterated LLMs for Vulnerability Analysis	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Memory in the Loop: In-Process Retrieval as ExtendedWorking Memory for Language Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	To Retain or to Adapt? Generalizing Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-07-06	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	When will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack?	manifold 2026-04-28	246_026 In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.67	How much VRAM will NVIDIA 6090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have?	manifold 2026-04-27	242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	244576	gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	20260429001332	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.67	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley	Energy	56%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.98.0	github_release 2026-05-04	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.97.0	github_release 2026-04-23	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.88.0	github_release 2026-04-01	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-05-06	246_053 ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. Dave Blundin	AI	43%
0.67	Will SpaceX launch a rocket in the next 24h?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-06	INF_018 SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. Elon Musk	Space	20%
0.67	Physics-Grounded Multi-Agent Architecture for Traceable, Risk-Aware Human-AI Decision Support in Manufacturing	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Multi-Agent Strategic Games with LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	When Agents Handle Secrets: A Survey of Confidential Computing for Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.67	Making the Invisible Visible: Understanding the Mismatch Between Organizational Goals and Worker Experiences in AI Adoption	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_011 The vast majority of human programmers will be entirely replaced by AI within a single year — future programmer role transitions from debugger to 'conductor' directing autonomous agents to implement complex visions. Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	20%
0.67	On Training Large Language Models for Long-Horizon Tasks: An Empirical Study of Horizon Length	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	How Language Models Process Negation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Perturbation Dose Responses in Recursive LLM Loops: Raw Switching, Stochastic Floors, and Persistent Escape under Append, Replace, and Dialog Updates	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Conceptors for Semantic Steering	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Anticipating Innovation Using Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	240_053 AI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaningless Peter Diamandis	AI	24%
0.67	Coral: Cost-Efficient Multi-LLM Serving over Heterogeneous Cloud GPUs	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.67	FDA BLA761328: BEYFORTUS (NIRSEVIMAB-ALIP) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-04-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	SkillOS: Learning Skill Curation for Self-Evolving Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Market-Alignment Risk in Pricing Agents: Trace Diagnostics and Trace-Prior RL under Hidden Competitor State	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	Instrumental Choices: Measuring the Propensity of LLM Agents to Pursue Instrumental Behaviors	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.67	Instrumental Choices: Measuring the Propensity of LLM Agents to Pursue Instrumental Behaviors	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	PrefixGuard: From LLM-Agent Traces to Online Failure-Warning Monitors	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Is Escalation Worth It? A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of LLM Cascades	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Policy-Guided Stepwise Model Routing for Cost-Effective Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	VibeServe: Can AI Agents Build Bespoke LLM Serving Systems?	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Novelty-based Tree-of-Thought Search for LLM Reasoning and Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Strat-LLM: Stratified Strategy Alignment for LLM-based Stock Trading with Real-time Multi-Source Signals	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_007 Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility. Sam Altman	AI/Strategy	23%
0.67	BioResearcher: Scenario-Guided Multi-Agent for Translational Medicine	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_020 Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving... Morgan Stanley	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.67	LLM-Driven Design Space Exploration of FPGA-based Accelerators	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	BALAR : A Bayesian Agentic Loop for Active Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Creative Robot Tool Use by Counterfactual Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Procedural-skill SFT across capacity tiers: A W-Shaped pre-SFT Trajectory and Regime-Asymmetric Mechanism on 0.8B-4B Qwen3.5 Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.67	ROMER: Expert Replacement and Router Calibration for Robust MoE LLMs on Analog Compute-in-Memory Systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Shaping Zero-Shot Coordination via State Blocking	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-14	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-13	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.67	Harnessing Agentic Evolution	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Characterizing Universal Object Representations Across Vision Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	MARLIN: Multi-Agent Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning for Sustainable LLM Inference in Cloud Datacenters	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Twincher: Bijective Representation Learning for Robust Inversion of Continuous Systems	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Teacher-Guided Policy Optimization for LLM Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Switching Successor Measures for Hierarchical Zero-shot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Finding the Weakest Link: Adversarial Attack against Multi-Agent Communications	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.67	On Hallucinations in Inverse Problems: Fundamental Limits and Provable Assessment Methods	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Protocol-Driven Development: Governing Generated Software Through Invariants and Evidence	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.67	Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-15	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.67	MeMo: Memory as a Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Critic-Driven Voronoi-Quantization for Distilling Deep RL Policies to Explainable Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Silent Collapse in Recursive Learning Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.67	Enjoy Your Layer Normalization with the Computational Efficiency of RMSNorm	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MoRe: Modular Representations for Principled Continual Representation Learning on Squantial Data	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	EnergyLens: Predictive Energy-Aware Exploration for Multi-GPU LLM Inference Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.67	Self-Regulated Learning in Essay Writing: Consistency of Strategies and Impact on Outcomes	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.67	Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.67	Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	S&p500 May 2026 prop bets	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-14	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Temporal Task Diversity: Inductive Biases Under Non-Stationarity in Synthetic Sequence Modelling	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.67	SAFE-SVD: Sensitivity-Aware Fidelity-Enforcing SVD for Physics Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	AdaptiveLoad: Towards Efficient Video Diffusion Transformer Training	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	$\boldsymbol{f}$-OPD: Stabilizing Long-Horizon On-Policy Distillation with Freshness-Aware Control	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	OSCAR: Offline Spectral Covariance-Aware Rotation for 2-bit KV Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	30T market cap company before 2030?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-26	235_003 First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.67	Gram: Assessing sabotage propensities via automated alignment auditing	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.67	Gram: Assessing sabotage propensities via automated alignment auditing	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	What drives performance in molecular MPNNs? An operator-level factorial benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Meta-Cognitive Memory Policy Optimization for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Anchorless Diversification for Parallel LLM Ideation	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Hijacking Agent Memory: Stealthy Trojan Attacks Through Conversational Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Agora: Toward Autonomous Bug Detection in Production-Level Consensus Protocols with LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	Harnessing non-adversarial robustness in large language models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	PRAIB: Peer Review AI Benchmark of Behaviour of LLM-Assisted Reviewing	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Energy-Aware NECO for Single-Pass Pixel-wise Out-of-Distribution Detection in Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	The New Pro Se: Generative AI and the Surge in Federal Civil Self-Representation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_009 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuses' consisting of millions of highly specialized autonomous agents operating orders of magnitude faster than human counterparts; entire software development lifecy... Dario Amodei	AI	22%
0.67	Digitally enriching a screening population for pancreatic cancer using routine blood-based measures and clinical histories	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.67	From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	When Do Graph Foundation Models Transfer? A Data-Centric Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	PEARL: Training Socratic Tutors with Pedagogically Aligned Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.67	On the Optimizer Dependence of Neural Scaling Laws	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.67	Multi-Resolution End-to-End Deep Neural Network for Optimizing Latency-Accuracy Tradeoff in Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	When will Codex hit 6M WAUs?	manifold 2026-06-01	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.67	2nd largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%