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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Alec Pierce be traded?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Brandon Woodruff win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-27 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2025-11-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 245_017 Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-15 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will Beşiktaş Gain win Turkey BSL?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5)(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Brad Ausmus be the next Red Sox manager?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Cary: Jay Dylan Friend vs Braden Shick(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 234_039 Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 26% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-30 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Italy vs. Lithuania(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Derbyshire(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Finland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5 Total Corners(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | CMQ_045 Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B. Morgan Stanley | Semis | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Lakers (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Oilers vs. Ducks(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.56 | Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Eduardo Ribeiro(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Hurricanes vs. Flyers(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 11% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Fight to Go the Distance?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_008 NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 26% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the fight be won by submission?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Iga Swiatek(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | INF_045 Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 51% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Paris: Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? (market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will David Njoku play for Indianapolis Colts in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Justin Boulais(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis | AI | 76% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Athletics(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Will David Njoku play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-11-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.56 | Will England win?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-6.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Knicks(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Nicolai Højgaard win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will George Pickens play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C.(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 248_026 Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? (market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 21% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 238_051 If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | CMQ_045 Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B. Morgan Stanley | Semis | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Erling Haaland: 1+ goals(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-10 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | |
| 0.56 | Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 245_008 More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-15 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Argentina?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Ecuador?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Milan: Completed Match: Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: Mandatory vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Troyes: Completed Match: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Calvin Hemery(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 29%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | |
| 0.56 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_034 Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Paraguay vs. France: O/U 3.5(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Durham(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Ghana?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Harry Kane: 1+ goals(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Mexico vs. England: Neither team to score first?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Egypt?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Egypt?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Egypt?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ex-Vexa - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Slovenia vs. Sweden(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will Patrick Bailey win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% |