Validations Queue
114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 50 of 222, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | GPT-5.6 Outperforms Claude Fable 5 on FrontierMath Tier 4?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.64 | Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.64 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $76 on June 29, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives | Semis/Memory | 62% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | Macron president by 2100(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-07-08 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Airstrike on a UK datacenter before 2035?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-07-08 | S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030 | compute_scale | 20% | |
| 0.64 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.64 | Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.64 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 22% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 29% | |
| 0.64 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 54% |