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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.61 | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TSTST?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-12 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil | Labor/Jobs | 61% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | Will a mod comment on this market?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-22 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 242_012 Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-01 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Manifold create an actual Manifold Mobile App before July 2027?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-07 | 236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-06 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-08 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-25 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.61 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.61 | will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | My current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026)(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 34% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.61 | Will US Average Gas Price fall below $4.10 in May 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 59752(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | BTC closes above $85k at end of month?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.61 | Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.61 | If the Googlebook is launched, will it still be available a year later?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-28 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-27 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.61 | Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | 2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Starmer out before October?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.61 | Will there be a physical protest at Discord headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-01 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-01 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-02 | COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.61 | Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.61 | Will it rain at manifest 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the USA reach the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.61 | XRP BELOW $1 THIS WEEK?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-12 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before July 1?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.61 | Free Lottery (inflationary expansion)(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.61 | Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Will a mod comment on this market?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.61 | Will Polymarket refund a million dollars on any market before 2028?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% |