Validations Queue

111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 44 of 60, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57
Sabres vs. Bruins(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
Raptors vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 28%)
polymarket
2026-04-27
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-04
SEM_016
Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience.
David Friedberg
Semis/Geopolitics20%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
SEM_003
Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy/Compute86%
0.57
Games Total: O/U 3.5(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57
76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto33%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto33%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.57
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57
Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 13%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
SPC_007
SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Markets/Stocks20%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-07
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
SEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets68%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-19
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SEM_026
Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Products62%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-29
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-09
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-31
ROB_011
An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration.
Elon Musk
Space9%
0.57
Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 42%)
polymarket
2026-05-08
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
238_024
AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras)
Emad Mostaque
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-03
242_036
Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks29%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-28
239_021
Money will stop being relevant at some point
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy35%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-13
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-13
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-22
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_019
Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-13
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
234_026
AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-07
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-17
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-20
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.57
Cavaliers vs. Knicks(market prob: 33%)
polymarket
2026-05-18
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
241_028
US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics48%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
236_004
Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen
Dave Blundin
AI36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-18
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-05-19
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-24
SPC_002
A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o...
Morgan Stanley
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-02
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-28
242_036
Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks29%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-05
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-05
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-14
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 22%)
polymarket
2026-05-30
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-28
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-28
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
CYB_028
The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups...
Mark Cuban
Markets/Stocks48%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-27
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.57
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-03
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-04
231_048
Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game.
Salim Ismail
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-04
235_045
Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Consumer42%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-03
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-05
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-05
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-06
244_033
Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks51%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
233_011
Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.
Joe Liemandt
Education37%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-16
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-21
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57
Spread: Knicks (-9.5)(market prob: 28%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
SEM_003
Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy/Compute86%
0.57
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-30
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-14
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-10
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-10
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-11
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-13
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-11
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-12
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
241_037
Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights
Eric Schmidt
AI49%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)(market prob: 28%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-13
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-06-15
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-10
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-11
236_025
Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes
Andrew Yang
Real Estate42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-25
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-20
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-13
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-19
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-07
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.57
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-18
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-20
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-18
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-19
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-21
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57
Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 71%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-14
230_032
Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-28
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-03
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto33%
0.57
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-05
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-18
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
244_012
Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks41%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-27
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-17
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-18
SEM_026
Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Products62%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-01
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-18
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-18
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-23
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-24
COD_SPC_007
NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist
Codex Research Pack
Space43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-24
SEM_044
Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority.
Peter Diamandis
Space32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-22
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-25
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-25
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-26
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-26
246_024
Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).
Dave Blundin
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-26
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-22
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-20
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-15
FUT_019
Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-25
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-20
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.57
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5(market prob: 43%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
246_030
DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-04
246_011
Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.
Dave Blundin
AI42%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.57
Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 25%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-29
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-23
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
Spread: France (-2.5)(market prob: 31%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
238_049
Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport55%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-24
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-30
241_040
A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act
Eric Schmidt
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-18
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-01
243_027
Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-30
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-01
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 13%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-22
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)(market prob: 5%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-23
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-01
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
235_042
OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks39%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
IND_011
2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r...
Jason Calacanis
Macro/Economy58%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-19
239_003
We are currently in AI hard takeoff
Elon Musk
AI47%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-03
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-05
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.57polymarket
2025-10-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-02
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-06
SEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.
Jensen Huang
Policy/Semis66%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-07-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
246_054
Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-17
246_011
Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.
Dave Blundin
AI42%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-03
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-02
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-22
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2025-09-17
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57
76ers vs. Celtics(market prob: 28%)
polymarket
2026-04-26
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2025-09-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-20
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-07
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57
Cavaliers vs. Raptors(market prob: 61%)
polymarket
2026-04-25
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57
Lightning vs. Canadiens(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-05
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-05
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory20%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57
76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-21
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 62%)
polymarket
2026-05-05
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57
Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-17
INF_070
Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen...
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy57%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-06
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-14
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-14
242_037
China will land on the moon before end of 2030
China (government)
Space37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57
Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.57
Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57
Spurs vs. Timberwolves(market prob: 65%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-24
236_040
CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs42%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
242_036
Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks29%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
242_047
Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
247_047
Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030
Peter Diamandis
Energy50%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-31
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.57
Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-07
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
243_027
Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-12
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
IND_011
2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r...
Jason Calacanis
Macro/Economy58%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-09
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57
Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-13
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-31
235_033
Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport52%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-17
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-20
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
233_011
Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.
Joe Liemandt
Education37%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
247_018
First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy46%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
TK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-11
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-30
230_034
Abundance will be achieved by 2035.
Peter Diamandis
Macro/Economy41%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-02
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto33%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-22
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-29
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-02
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-23
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-22
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-29
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-29
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-29
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
FUT_017
Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc...
Gerd Leonhard
Media/Ads50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-13
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-04
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-08
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI20%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
CMQ_004
AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.
Dario Amodei
AI28%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 43%)
polymarket
2026-05-29
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
248_015
Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.57
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5(market prob: 57%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57
Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-06-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-06
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%