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111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 43 of 60, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2025-11-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will US annex any territory in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-01-06 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.57 | US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-03-12 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 241_040 A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Elly De La Cruz win the 2026 National League MVP Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.57 | DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Belgium win the World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Milan: Completed Match: Juan Martin vs David Jorda Sanchis(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Tiafoe vs. Bublik: Match O/U 40.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: TrafficPills Esports vs TheBoys - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 1.5(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 6.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Belgium?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: Neither team to score first?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Belgium to score first vs. United States?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Patrick Bailey win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: TheBoys vs maybe - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.57 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.57 | Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-26 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will France win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-10.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.57 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-11-28 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 4 Winner(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-08-04 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.57 | Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-5.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | New York Yankees vs. Athletics(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-2.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | ||
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Cholet vs. Paris Basketball(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Baltimore Ravens next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | |
| 0.57 | Will George Pickens play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.57 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.57 | Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Madina Okot win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | SPC_020 Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst... Brett Adcock | Auto/Transport | 26% | ||
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? (market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2025-12-19 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-03-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.57 | Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Arnold Allen fight Alexander Volkanovski next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Iran full airspace closure by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.57 | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marin Čilić be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-01-07 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5)(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.57 | Milan: Completed Match: Elmer Moeller vs Pierluigi Basile(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Croatia (-1.5)(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Alliance (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Ghana: Colombia O/U 1.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Morocco (-1.5)(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 0.5(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Derbyshire(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-03 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.57 | Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% |