Validations Queue

111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 40 of 60, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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Bulk action
SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
238_040
Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-26
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-07
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
SEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.
Jensen Huang
Policy/Semis66%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-07
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-06-11
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.58
Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-06-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-10
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-08
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-10
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-06-15
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-25
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-13
AUT_023
Urban air mobility (eVTOL) market will generate $29 billion by 2030, scaling exponentially to over $1 trillion by 2040 — ~35x growth over 10 years as regulatory certification, manufacturing capacity, and urban vertiport infrastructure mature.
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-18
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-16
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-13
234_004
Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-25
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 75%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Haiti (-1.5)(market prob: 1%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-19
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-19
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-21
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-14
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-14
238_048
US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics45%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-18
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-21
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-19
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-18
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-23
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-30
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-30
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-07
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
236_048
Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world
Peter Diamandis
Macro/Economy53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-05
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5(market prob: 61%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-25
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 10%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-06-26
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-20
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.58
Spread: Germany (-1.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 64%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics20%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-01
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-01
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 12%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-01
234_047
Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-01
SEM_026
Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Products62%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-09
238_049
Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport55%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-25
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)(market prob: 24%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.58
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5(market prob: 55%)
polymarket
2026-07-01
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5(market prob: 25%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-29
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
INF_045
Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%.
Morgan Stanley
Energy51%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-04
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)(market prob: 3%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
238_020
Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI61%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58
Slovenia vs. Sweden(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-06-30
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-01
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-23
S_RECESSION_2027
NBER recession declared 2027
macro_recession30%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
248_041
Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit.
Peter Diamandis
Space45%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
IND_011
2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r...
Jason Calacanis
Macro/Economy58%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-25
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-21
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-13
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-17
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-30
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-29
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-26
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-03
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-08
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
SEM_026
Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Products62%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-19
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-25
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
234_004
Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-29
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
241_061
China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later)
Eric Schmidt
Robotics44%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-04
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
246_024
Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).
Dave Blundin
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-04
IND_021
February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte...
Jack Dorsey
Labor/Jobs74%
0.58
76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-10-09
242_013
Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport55%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-17
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-15
231_016
Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.58
Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-08
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-08
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-08
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-08
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-10
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-10
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-07
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-15
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-22
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-08
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2025-05-02
242_013
Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport55%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-12
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-14
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-14
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-15
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-15
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-31
231_010
China has peaked and is going to be on descent.
Salim Ismail
Geopolitics44%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-31
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-15
CMQ_004
AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.
Dario Amodei
AI28%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-17
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58polymarket
2025-10-22
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-18
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-18
TK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-29
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-29
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-23
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-20
238_068
Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)
Mark Pack Donovan
Macro/Economy35%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-14
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-22
241_032
World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale
Eric Schmidt
AI46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-20
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-02
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-29
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-29
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-25
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-06
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI20%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-26
246_025
Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).
Sam Altman
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-23
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-23
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-28
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-06-01
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Will New Zealand win?(market prob: 38%)
polymarket
2026-05-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
244_012
Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks41%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-31
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-31
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)(market prob: 43%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-25
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-14
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-25
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 63%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-16
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-16
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.58
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58
Partizan vs. BC Dubai(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
244_012
Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks41%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-13
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-06-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-06-11
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-06-11
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 74%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-14
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-12
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
CMQ_034
HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory84%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-25
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.58
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58
Cuban regime falls in 2026?(market prob: 18%)
polymarket
2026-03-10
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-25
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-18
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-06-15
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-19
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 71%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58
Spread: France (-2.5)(market prob: 55%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-21
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.58
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-04
ROB_011
An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration.
Elon Musk
Space9%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-18
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-17
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-14
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-30
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
238_040
Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
248_031
Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity39%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: England (-2.5)(market prob: 40%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: England (-2.5)(market prob: 40%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
246_025
Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).
Sam Altman
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 69%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-25
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.58
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals(market prob: 30%)
polymarket
2026-06-26
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 10%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)(market prob: 25%)
polymarket
2026-06-17
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)
polymarket
2026-06-26
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)
polymarket
2026-06-26
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5(market prob: 72%)
polymarket
2026-06-26
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 20%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-30
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-30
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-30
FUT_016
Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ...
April Rinne
Labor/Jobs39%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-29
238_036
Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers
Emad Mostaque
Media/Ads25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-03
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%