Validations Queue

111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 38 of 60, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)
111,300
Reviewed
13
Filtered
29,731
page 38 / 60
Showing on page
500

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Page size

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-30
S_MARS_2028
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
mars_uncrewed_landing50%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-18
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-19
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-23
235_011
PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.
Salim Ismail
Markets/Stocks47%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-22
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)(market prob: 12%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 67%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-22
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-01
S_MARS_2028
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
mars_uncrewed_landing50%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-02
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-28
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 18%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Spread: France (-2.5)(market prob: 31%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.58
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5(market prob: 86%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-30
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-18
244_033
Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks51%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-03
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-30
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-22
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-29
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-01
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-06
243_027
Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-07
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 17%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-04
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-19
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-06
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.58
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 17%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)(market prob: 6%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-01
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-24
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-24
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-21
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-08
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-10
232_052
Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring.
Peter Diamandis
Macro/Economy32%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-30
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
235_042
OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks39%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-24
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-31
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-03
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-01
TK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-23
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-29
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58
Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-19
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-19
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-25
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-25
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-16
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-19
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
242_010
By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics
Dave Blundin
AI36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-16
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
243_027
Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport43%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58
Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-03-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-03-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-21
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Games Total: O/U 3.5(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
SEM_003
Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy/Compute86%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-22
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-26
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-17
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.58
76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-06
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-10
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-05-07
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-03
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-05
S_MARS_2028
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
mars_uncrewed_landing50%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-07
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58
Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-08
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.58
O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-04-18
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58
O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-04-18
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-08
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-13
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-05
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-31
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 34%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-10
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-13
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-16
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-13
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-09
247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial
Peter Diamandis
AI71%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
S_GRID_50GW_2027
50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027
energy_grid_expansion40%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-07
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-07
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-10
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-14
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-14
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-15
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-14
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.58
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-14
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-30
FUT_015
Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics62%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-17
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-17
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-18
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-07
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-24
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-26
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-26
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-20
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-04
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-25
FUT_023
'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics68%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-31
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-02
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-29
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.58
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-29
234_004
Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-11
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-11
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-23
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-23
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 43%)
polymarket
2026-05-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-03
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-04
231_016
Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-04
TK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.58
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 63%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-08
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-16
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-27
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-31
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-06-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-11
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-08
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-06-11
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)(market prob: 17%)
polymarket
2026-06-13
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-13
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
CMQ_034
HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory84%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-25
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)(market prob: 19%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Cuban regime falls in 2026?(market prob: 18%)
polymarket
2026-03-10
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-13
236_004
Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen
Dave Blundin
AI36%
0.58
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 73%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Spread: Haiti (-1.5)(market prob: 1%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-21
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-17
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-18
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.58
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 26%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-26
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
236_048
Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world
Peter Diamandis
Macro/Economy53%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-30
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-04
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 34%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 16%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-25
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5(market prob: 61%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 69%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 6%)
polymarket
2026-06-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals(market prob: 34%)
polymarket
2026-06-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)(market prob: 17%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)(market prob: 25%)
polymarket
2026-06-17
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-15
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-06-26
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.58
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 42%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 42%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58
Spread: France (-1.5)(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
246_030
DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-01
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-25
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-28
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Spread: England (-3.5)(market prob: 13%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58
Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-23
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-30
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-29
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-28
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-25
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)(market prob: 25%)
polymarket
2026-06-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-07-04
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.58
Spread: England (-2.5)(market prob: 5%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58
Spread: England (-2.5)(market prob: 5%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58
Mexico vs. England: O/U 3.5(market prob: 20%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-03
238_048
US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics45%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
IND_011
2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r...
Jason Calacanis
Macro/Economy58%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2026-07-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-29
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-10
242_036
Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks29%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
242_037
China will land on the moon before end of 2030
China (government)
Space37%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58
Spread: Lakers (-4.5)(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-22
235_011
PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.
Salim Ismail
Markets/Stocks47%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics20%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
229_004
By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.
Brett Adcock
Geopolitics41%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.58
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-04-30
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-27
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%