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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brandon Aiyuk play for New England Patriots in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Sweden (-1.5)(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? (market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-28 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | ||
| 0.58 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: France (-2.5)(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Belgium be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Colombia leading at halftime?(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs 9z (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs 9z (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Colombia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 England?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. England: England O/U 1.5(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Alexandra Eala be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Belgium (-2.5)(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: TheBoys vs maybe - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.58 | Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Kash Patel out by April 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-03 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.58 | Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-19 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Solary vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Games Total: O/U 3.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.58 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.58 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskova(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.58 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 4 Winner(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-09-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-24 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-11-25 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will David Njoku play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-11 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-6.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.58 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Dallas Cowboys next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Brazil (-4.5)(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? (market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donna Vekic win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Ghana (-1.5)(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Cuban regime falls in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-03-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Haiti (-1.5)(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | ||
| 0.58 | Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-04 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5)(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Argentina (-3.5)(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: France (-1.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-01 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? (market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: England (-3.5)(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs 9z (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Morocco (-1.5)(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2025-11-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: England (-2.5)(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: England (-2.5)(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 3.5(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Alexandra Eala be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Belgium?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.58 | Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Lehecka (+2.5)(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Lakers (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.58 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.58 | Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Rockets (-3.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% |