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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-26 | SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis | Space | 32% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-04 | SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis | Space | 32% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-06 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-10 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-12 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-13 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | Will England become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis | AI | 52% | |
| 0.65 | Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $67.50 on July 8, 2026?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.65 | Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 37% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-02 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.65 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.65 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.65 | New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | ||
| 0.65 | OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-31 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | CMQ_039 TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Packaging | 71% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.65 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley | Labor/Jobs | 40% | |
| 0.65 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | |
| 0.65 | Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 236_022 Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame Andrew Yang | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.65 | Will commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 246_018 Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. Alex Wissner-Gross | Energy | 36% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.65 | Will BTC hit $70k in June after market creation?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.65 | Will GPT-5.6 beat Fable 5?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 246_051 GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. Peter Diamandis | AI | 35% | |
| 0.65 | Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-30 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.65 | Claude Haiku gets deprecated in the next 3 months?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.65 | Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.65 | Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin reach $90K USD in May 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.65 | Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin be at 71K or higher at end of week?(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.65 | XRP BELOW $1 THIS WEEK?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.65 | Will there be a drone emoji before 2032?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.65 | Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_042 On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-20 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.65 | Will there be a new war by the 1 of July 2026?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.65 | Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 245_042 Synthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion) Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 55% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-23 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | Silver price above $90 in July 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.65 | Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | |
| 0.65 | Will MrBeast have 600,000,000 subscribers by July,24 2026(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.65 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% |