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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.76 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-06-30 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-06-16 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.76 | Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.76 | manifold 2026-05-31 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.76 | Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.76 | Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.75 | Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.75 | SpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.75 | Is ai going to be self repairing?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 241_051 AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things Eric Schmidt | AI | 38% | |
| 0.75 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.75 | Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.75 | GPT-5.6 released by July 13?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.75 | Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_055 We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.75 | Will there be a trillionaire not named Elon Musk by end of 2027?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic be acquired before the end of 2030?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.75 | Will SpaceX's IPO (ticker SPCX) price on or before June 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.75 | Will SpaceX close worth more than $2 trillion on IPO day?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-26 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.75 | Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.75 | Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.75 | Anthropic above 40T valuation on June 14 2027(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.75 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-05-25 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.75 | Will AI continue to improve?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis | AI | 27% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.75 | Will a share of SpaceX be worth $150 or more one year after IPO?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-19 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | ||
| 0.75 | Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.75 | Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.75 | Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.75 | Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.75 | Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 62% | ||
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.75 | Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-12 | INF_018 SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. Elon Musk | Space | 20% | ||
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.75 | Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.75 | Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 40% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_006 OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. Sam Altman | AI/Finance | 64% | ||
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.75 | Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | |
| 0.75 | Anthropic above 20T valuation on June 14 2027(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | ||
| 0.75 | Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.75 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | ||
| 0.75 | manifold 2026-06-11 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-03 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.74 | Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 236_020 No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon Andrew Yang | Robotics | 31% | ||
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX close worth more than $2 trillion on IPO day?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-12 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX IPO before Bitcoin hits $100K again?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_055 Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space Peter Diamandis | Space | 51% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.74 | Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.74 | Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-18 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.74 | Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-18 | INF_020 In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings. BIS Research | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_033 Few frontier AI companies will be in China Eric Schmidt | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-11 | CMQ_014 Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI/Compute | 50% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-12 | SEM_043 SpaceX is actively exploring deployment of data centers in space — seeking regulatory permission immediately as rivals investigate orbital compute. Gwynne Shotwell | Space/Compute | 54% | ||
| 0.74 | Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.74 | Will a new FrontierMath Open Problem be solved by AI before August 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.74 | Will Elon Musk ever reach a net worth of 1.5 trillion?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.74 | Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-28 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_051 If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-03 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.74 | Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX IPO before Bitcoin hits $100K again?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.74 | Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.74 | Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.74 | Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.74 | Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 40% | |
| 0.74 | Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 241_033 Few frontier AI companies will be in China Eric Schmidt | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.74 | New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | |
| 0.74 | S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-03 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 this year?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.74 | Will a new FrontierMath Open Problem be solved by AI before August 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-27 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 229_009 Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 40% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX's IPO (ticker SPCX) price on or before June 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.74 | Will anthropic be up a week from now?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.74 | Anthropic above 40T valuation on June 14 2027(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-07-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.74 | Will Kamala announce a run in 2028(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.74 | Will a share of SpaceX be worth $150 or more one year after IPO?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.74 | Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_026 In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). Sam Altman | AI | 51% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-08 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX have a higher market cap than Amazon at the end of 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX close at a value below its IPO price before the end of 2026?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-26 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.74 | Will Gemini 3.5 Pro be released on the Gemini API by July 12?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-28 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027 | compute_scale | 60% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.73 | Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-28 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-09 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.73 | Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.73 | Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-01 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.73 | Will there be a trillionaire not named Elon Musk by end of 2027?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-12 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-18 | S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027 | compute_scale | 60% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-29 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-15 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-24 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Anthropic file a therapeutic patent before July 2029?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.73 | will an AI get a nobel prize before 2040?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. Sam Altman | AI | 17% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 231_033 Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. Peter Diamandis | Space | 49% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-25 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.73 | Will a new FrontierMath Open Problem be solved by AI before August 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.73 | Is ai going to be self repairing?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Software | 56% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.73 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.73 | Will anthropic be up a week from now?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 236_010 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.73 | SpaceX closes above $250 at end of month?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.73 | Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | |
| 0.73 | Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-25 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% |