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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.63 | Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 28% | |
| 0.63 | Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | |
| 0.63 | Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | |
| 0.63 | Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.63 | Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.63 | Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 56% | |
| 0.63 | Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 235_043 Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. Salim Ismail | Defense | 36% | |
| 0.63 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.63 | Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will SPY close above $739.17 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 US CPI year-over-year reading come in above 2.8%?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn | AI | 43% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.63 | Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I bet on this market?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.63 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 37% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $60k in June?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | |
| 0.63 | Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.63 | Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.63 | Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I get a 32768 tile in 2048 at MOP 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.63 | Will I get a 32768 tile in 2048 at MOP 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.63 | Will I get a 32768 tile in 2048 at MOP 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-07 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-10 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will June 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.63 | Will I make mana on this market?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.63 | Will GPT-5.6 beat Fable 5?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Flexmode raise at $100M valuation before December 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.63 | Will Flexmode raise at $100M valuation before December 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 240_040 Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 38% | ||
| 0.63 | Will jesus respawn before 2027????(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.63 | Fable reenabled for Europeans before the first of August 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-30 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.63 | Will GPT-5.6-Sol score at least 59 on the Artificial Analysis Index?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 229_013 The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. Brett Adcock | AI | 73% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Claude Fable 5 be accessible in a subscription on July 31 2026?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-25 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Terminator2 have at least 200 Moltbook followers by 2026-05-18?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis | AI | 27% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.62 | US x China tariff agreement by May 31st? [Polymarket](market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil | AI/Agents | 74% | |
| 0.62 | Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.62 | Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 243_002 Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 75% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.62 | Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.62 | Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | FUT_006 Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deliberately dismantle legacy operations before lateral multi-domain convergence renders them obsolete. Traditional technology hype cycle rejected; future no longer arrives one tr... Amy Webb | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | Free Lottery (tidal disruption event)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_013 Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 73% | ||
| 0.62 | Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 62% | |
| 0.62 | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.62 | Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will I get a 32768 tile in 2048 at MOP 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Best meme competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 351(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.62 | Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.62 | Will Jesus return on November 25 2026(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi | Robotics | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 232_030 AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money. Ben Horowitz | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.62 | Will June 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | [Short Fuse] Will Anthropi reset Max users' limit in the next 7 days?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis | AI | 76% | |
| 0.62 | Will I make USA TST Group 2027?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.62 | US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will I make mana on this market?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will eldar grow his dick by 5 cm by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | FUT_006 Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deliberately dismantle legacy operations before lateral multi-domain convergence renders them obsolete. Traditional technology hype cycle rejected; future no longer arrives one tr... Amy Webb | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will June 2026 CPI inflation (YoY) come in above 4.2%?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.62 | Can Manifold solve this problem?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | 232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.62 | Can Manifold solve this problem?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.62 | Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.62 | Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 232_022 Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. Ben Horowitz | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.62 | Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.62 | Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 53% | |
| 0.62 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.62 | “Will Elon Musk mention Dogecoin before June ends?”(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will ChatGPT personal finance release for Plus Plans in 2026?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.62 | Will there be a trend spike for The Third Man Theme before 2038?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Compute | 42% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | US Gas Price $4.100 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | ||
| 0.62 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | Gold price above 4,750.00 in June 2026(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-06 | INF_002 By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 30% | ||
| 0.62 | New gemini version out in june(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_046 Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems Eric Schmidt | AI | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.62 | Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-10 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-10 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 243_040 Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 48% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 247_026 Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Arlan get 1 million users by July 1st, 2026?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis | AI | 76% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 241_040 A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | will IMO(math) 2026 problem 1 day 1 is a geometry?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 34% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-30 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-07-03 | ROB_006 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programming interface; programmers transition from syntax writers to high-level intent specifiers. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 92% | ||
| 0.62 | Standing seats on regular commercial flights by end of 2027?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | 242_012 Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% |