Validations Queue
108,318 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 17 of 216, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70 | Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.70 | Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 236_022 Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame Andrew Yang | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.70 | Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-19 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | ||
| 0.70 | Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_011 Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.70 | Humanoid robot walking around me within a year?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 17% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 233_004 AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. Joe Liemandt | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-04-23 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.70 | Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis | Space | 79% | ||
| 0.70 | Bitcoin $60k in June?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 247_008 Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.70 | Will there be a trillionaire not named Elon Musk by end of 2027?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 43% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-13 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-16 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.70 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | |
| 0.70 | Will I burnout by the end of 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.70 | Will the distributed training of AI be illegal before 2028(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.70 | Will SpaceX launch a rocket in the next 24h?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.70 | Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 34% | ||
| 0.70 | Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-11 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.70 | Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | |
| 0.70 | Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.70 | Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.70 | Will 2+ bots beat master league in 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.70 | Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 241_060 Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers Peter Diamandis | Space | 54% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.70 | XRP BELOW $1 THIS WEEK?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-17 | COD_SPC_006 Vast Haven-1 reaches orbit by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 38% | ||
| 0.70 | Will Bitcoin be at or above 75k at the end of the month?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.70 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.70 | Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% |