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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.76	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.76	Attacks and Mitigations for Distributed Governance of Agentic AI under Byzantine Adversaries	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.76	Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.76	GPT 5.6 release date?	manifold 2026-05-16	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.76	When will SpaceX officially confirm an IPO?	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.76	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.76	Will Bitcoin hit $68,000 or $78,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-31	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.76	Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.76	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.76	Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.76	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.76	Learning What to Remember: A Cognitively Grounded Multi-Factor Value Model for Agentic Memory	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.75	amazon chipmaker sell trainium ai chips nvidia 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.75	Pathways to AGI	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.75	Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-11	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.75	Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.75	SpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.75	Is ai going to be self repairing?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-25	241_051 AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things Eric Schmidt	AI	38%
0.75	POIROT: Interrogating Agents for Failure Detection in Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.75	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.75	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Agent Memory: Characterization and System Implications of Stateful Long-Horizon Workloads	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.75	AI Sovereignty: A Qualitative Model of Strategic Competition as AI Becomes an Instrument of National Power	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_022 Maintaining technological competitiveness in Physical AI is an acute, existential matter of national security — falling behind in industrial automation translates directly to loss of geopolitical hegemony; the nation that controls the physical fabricat... Eric Schmidt	Defense	75%
0.75	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	22%
0.75	Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-13	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.75	A Scalable Embodied Intelligence Platform for Seamless Real-to-Sim-to-Real Transfer of Household Mobile Manipulation Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	Grounded Scaling: Why Agentic AI Needs Deterministic Environments	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.75	GPT-5.6 released by July 13?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-24	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.75	Metis: Bridging Text and Code Memory for Self-Evolving Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.75	HumanoidUMI: Bridging Robot-Free Demonstrations and Humanoid Whole-Body Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	62%
0.75	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.75	Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.75	Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-17	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.75	Will Anthropic release a new model stronger than Haiku 4.5 before June 16?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.75	EvoMemBench: Benchmarking Agent Memory from a Self-Evolving Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.75	Safe Embodied AI for Long-horizon Tasks: A Cross-layer Analysis of Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-08	246_055 We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.75	Will there be a trillionaire not named Elon Musk by end of 2027?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-12	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.75	Under What Conditions Can a Machine Become Genuinely Creative?	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.75	A Tutorial on World Models and Physical AI	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	SpaceX stock hits $150 or $250 next?	manifold 2026-06-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Charting the Growth of Social-Physical HRI (spHRI): A Systematic Review Pipeline Augmented by Small Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.75	Situation Perception: A Necessary Primitive to Artificial Superintelligence	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.75	Vision-Language-Action Models: Experimental Insights from a Real-World UR5 Platform	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.75	Criticality-Based Guard Rail Validation for AI Agent Decisions in Autonomous Telecom Networks	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.75	Will Anthropic be acquired before the end of 2030?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-10	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.75	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	GPT 5.6 released by…?	manifold 2026-05-18	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.75	Will SpaceX's IPO (ticker SPCX) price on or before June 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.75	When Cloud Agents Meet Device Agents: Lessons from Hybrid Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.75	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.75	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Large-scale semantic mapping of learner agency and autonomy reveals what measurement and generative AI research overlook	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.75	Hierarchical Policies from Verbal and Egocentric Human Signals for Natural Human-Robot Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	Will SpaceX close worth more than $2 trillion on IPO day?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-11	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.75	Learning to Prompt: Improving Student Engagement with Adaptive LLM-based High-School Tutoring	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.75	Techniques for Peak Memory Reduction for LoRA Fine-tuning of LLMs on Edge Devices	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.75	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.75	[v2] GPT 5.6 release date?	manifold 2026-06-23	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.75	Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-26	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.75	The Many-Body Problem of the Data Centre	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.75	OSWorld2.0: Benchmarking Computer Use Agents on Long-Horizon Real-World Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.75	When will SpaceX officially confirm an IPO?	manifold 2026-05-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.75	Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-18	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.75	Decentralized LLM-Driven Coordination of Acoustic Robots for Contactless Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.75	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	What will be Anthropic’s GAAP net income on their audited 2025 Income Statement?	manifold 2026-06-03	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.75	GRAIL: Generating Humanoid Loco-Manipulation from 3D Assets and Video Priors	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Resource-aware Computation-Communication Overlap for multi-GPU ML Workloads	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.75	TinyGiantALM: A Compact Audio-Language Model for Intent-Aware Reasoning under Resource Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.75	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-14	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.75	Anthropic above 40T valuation on June 14 2027(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-14	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.75	GUI vs. CLI: Execution Bottlenecks in Screen-Only and Skill-Mediated Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.75	Are We Ready For An Agent-Native Memory System?	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.75	Can Trustless Agents Be Trusted? An Empirical Study of the ERC-8004 Decentralized AI Agent Ecosystem	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.75	Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-28	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.75	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.75	METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks	codex_research_pack 2025-03-19	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.75	METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks	codex_research_pack 2025-03-19	CMQ_005 AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role. Dario Amodei	AI	56%
0.75	OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030	codex_research_pack 2026-04-26	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.75	OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030	codex_research_pack 2026-04-26	CMQ_005 AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role. Dario Amodei	AI	56%
0.75	OpenAI - Announcing The Stargate Project	codex_research_pack 2025-01-21	231_030 US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). Eric Schmidt	Energy	49%
0.75	OpenAI - Announcing The Stargate Project	codex_research_pack 2025-01-21	246_037 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical equipment shortage and regulation). Peter Diamandis	AI	38%
0.75	OpenAI - Announcing The Stargate Project	codex_research_pack 2025-01-21	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.75	OpenAI - Stargate advances with 4.5 GW partnership with Oracle	codex_research_pack 2025-07-22	231_030 US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). Eric Schmidt	Energy	49%
0.75	OpenAI - Stargate advances with 4.5 GW partnership with Oracle	codex_research_pack 2025-07-22	246_037 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical equipment shortage and regulation). Peter Diamandis	AI	38%
0.75	OpenAI - Stargate advances with 4.5 GW partnership with Oracle	codex_research_pack 2025-07-22	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.75	SoftBank - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites	codex_research_pack 2025-09-24	231_030 US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). Eric Schmidt	Energy	49%
0.75	SoftBank - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites	codex_research_pack 2025-09-24	246_037 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical equipment shortage and regulation). Peter Diamandis	AI	38%
0.75	SoftBank - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites	codex_research_pack 2025-09-24	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.75	NVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CES	codex_research_pack 2026-01-06	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.75	NVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CES	codex_research_pack 2026-01-06	CMQ_022 AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. Elon Musk	AI	34%
0.75	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.75	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	CMQ_022 AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. Elon Musk	AI	34%
0.75	NVIDIA - Launches Space Computing, Rocketing AI Into Orbit	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.75	NVIDIA - Launches Space Computing, Rocketing AI Into Orbit	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	INF_018 SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. Elon Musk	Space	20%
0.75	European Commission - AI Act	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	235_046 Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	15%
0.75	European Commission - Guidelines for providers of general-purpose AI models	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	235_046 Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	15%
0.75	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	229_014 Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. Brett Adcock	Robotics	35%
0.75	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	229_015 The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. Brett Adcock	Robotics	43%
0.75	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	229_016 Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions of robots per year. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.75	Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots	codex_research_pack 2025-03-16	229_014 Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. Brett Adcock	Robotics	35%
0.75	Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots	codex_research_pack 2025-03-16	229_015 The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. Brett Adcock	Robotics	43%
0.75	Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots	codex_research_pack 2025-03-16	229_016 Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions of robots per year. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.75	1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.75	1X - NEO's Starting to Learn On Its Own	codex_research_pack 2026-01-12	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.75	NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis	Space	28%
0.75	NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis	Space	28%
0.75	NASA - Artemis II Launch Day Updates	codex_research_pack 2026-04-01	246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis	Space	28%
0.75	Isomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the clinic	codex_research_pack 2025-03-31	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.75	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	codex_research_pack 2025-03-04	245_007 Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.75	Colossal - Dire Wolf project	codex_research_pack 2025-04-07	245_007 Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.75	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	245_007 Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.75	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.75	AI-Generated Smells: An Analysis of Code and Architecture in LLM and Agent-Driven Development	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.75	Data Language Models: A New Foundation Model Class for Tabular Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.75	Pathways to AGI	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_006 Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	56%
0.75	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.75	Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-25	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.75	Will AI continue to improve?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-01	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.75	AGENTCL: Toward Rigorous Evaluation of Continual Learning in Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.75	AdaMEM: Test-Time Adaptive Memory for Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.75	Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion, on June 12th, the IPO date of Spacex?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.75	Combined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX	manifold 2026-06-08	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.75	SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.75	Will a share of SpaceX be worth $150 or more one year after IPO?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.75	A Three-Layer Framework for AI in Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.75	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.75	When will SpaceX and Tesla merge?	manifold 2026-06-19	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.75	TEXEDO : Test Time Scaling for Controller-aware Language-conditioned Humanoid Motion Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	TEXEDO : Test Time Scaling for Controller-aware Language-conditioned Humanoid Motion Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.75	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.75	A Machine-Verified Proof of a Quantum-Optimization Conjecture	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.75	Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-07-01	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%