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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.73	Engineering Reliable Autonomous Systems: Challenges and Solutions	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.73	Proactive Systems in HCI and AI: Concepts, Challenges, and Opportunities	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Toward Low-Latency Vision-Language Models with Doubly-Correct Predictions in Egocentric Visual Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Safe Autoregressive Image Generation with Iterative Self-Improving Codebooks	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.73	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.73	July 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-06-30	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.73	Little Brains, Big Feats: Exploring Compact Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-30	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.73	Will Anthropic's closing price be greater than its opening price on its first trading day?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-07-02	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.73	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	238_051 If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.73	Distributed Attacks in Persistent-State AI Control	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.73	How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-01	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.73	Cryptographic Registry Provenance: Structural Defense Against Dependency Confusion in AI Package Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.73	Evaluating Generative Models as Interactive Emergent Representations of Human-Like Collaborative Behavior	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.73	Position: Behavioural Assurance Cannot Verify the Safety Claims Governance Now Demands	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-03	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	What will be the first one-person company to reach a $1 billion valuation?	manifold 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.73	Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-01	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.73	Anthropic closing market cap on IPO day?	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.73	Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-01	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.73	World-Task Factorization for Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	World-Language-Action Model for Unified World Modeling, Language Reasoning, and Action Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	Powering the Future of AI: Navigating the Trade-offs for Europe's Energy Transition and Net-Zero Goals	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.73	Powering the Future of AI: Navigating the Trade-offs for Europe's Energy Transition and Net-Zero Goals	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.73	From USD Scenes to Knowledge Graphs: Zero-Shot Ontology Grounding with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	VAIC: Vision-Guided Humanoid Agile Object Interaction Control via Decoupled Commands	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will there be a trillionaire not named Elon Musk by end of 2027?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-12	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	22%
0.73	The Illusion of Multi-Agent Advantage	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.73	Smarter Saboteurs, Better Fixers: Scaling & Security in Linear Multi-Agent Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.73	SpaceX market cap on December 31 2026?	manifold 2026-06-12	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.73	Kairos: A Native World Model Stack for Physical AI	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.73	When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space?	manifold 2026-06-18	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.73	Data Standards for Humanoid Robotics: The Missing Infrastructure for Physical AI	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.73	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.73	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.73	Axon: A Synthesizing Superoptimizer for Tensor Programs	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Bitcoin price on June 29?	manifold 2026-06-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	The FIL Hypothesis: Inductive Biases Help with Kernel Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.73	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-20	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.73	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-02-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.73	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.73	Cryptographic Registry Provenance: Structural Defense Against Dependency Confusion in AI Package Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.73	Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.73	A Few Good Clauses: Comparing LLMs vs Domain-Trained Small Language Models on Structured Contract Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Learning, Fast and Slow: Towards LLMs That Adapt Continually	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 30th UTC?	manifold 2026-05-15	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Beyond Semantic Organization: Memory as Execution State Management for Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.73	A Multi-Operator Mixed-Reality Interface for Multi-Robot Control and Coordination: Co-Located and Private Workspace Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.73	A Unifying Lens on Reward Uncertainty in RLHF	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.73	Benchmarking Vision-Language-Action Models on SO-101: Failure and Recovery Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Soul Computing: A Theoretical Framework and Technical Architecture for Intelligent Agents with Independent Consciousness	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.73	Bootstrapped Monitoring: Leveraging Transparent Reasoning to Oversee Stronger AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.73	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.73	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	Will OpenAI be one of the top 10 most valuable public companies in the world at the end of 2028?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-18	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.73	Safety in Self-Evolving LLM Agent Systems: Threats, Amplification, and Case Studies	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.73	How many successful SpaceX launches in July 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-06-24	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.73	Tailor Made Embeddings for Quantum Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.73	Will Anthropic file a therapeutic patent before July 2029?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-30	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.73	VLK: Learning Humanoid Loco-Manipulation from Synthetic Interactions in Reconstructed Scenes	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	will an AI get a nobel prize before 2040?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-07-04	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. Sam Altman	AI	17%
0.73	prediction spacex ipo reach 1 125000963.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.73	Human-in-the-Loop Uncertainty Analysis in Self-Adaptive Robots Using LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.73	Distinguishing performance gains from learning when using generative AI	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.73	An Amortized Efficiency Threshold for Comparing Neural and Heuristic Solvers in Combinatorial Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.73	Monitoring Agentic Systems Before They're Reliable	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.73	Towards Automated Discovery: A Review of Generative Models, Multimodal Learning and Closed-Loop Workflows in Inverse Materials Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-11	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-11	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	PersonaTree: Structured Lifecycle Memory for Person Understanding in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.73	RhinoVLA Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	TileFuse: A Fused Mixed-Precision Kernel Library for Efficient Quantized LLM Inference on AMD NPUs	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.73	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.73	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	M*: A Modular, Extensible, Serving System for Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	When Agent Automation Becomes Profitable: Quantifying and Insuring Autonomous AI Risk through Trace-Economic Underwriting	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.73	Architectural Wisdom: A Framework for Governing Optimization in AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.73	Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-17	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.73	Physics-Informed Attention Mechanism and Generalization Capability of Deep Learning-Based Grain Growth Evolution Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space?	manifold 2026-06-18	231_033 Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.73	What Must Generalist Agents Remember?	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.73	Towards Scalable Customization and Deployment of Multi-Agent Systems for Enterprise Applications	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	A Scalable Embodied Intelligence Platform for Seamless Real-to-Sim-to-Real Transfer of Household Mobile Manipulation Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.73	Stage-dependent integer-binary encoding in factorization-machine black-box optimization	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	When will Bitcoin hit $150K?	manifold 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Will a new FrontierMath Open Problem be solved by AI before August 2026?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-20	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.73	The Clinician's Veto: Navigating Trust, Liability, and Uncertainty in Autonomous AI Prescribing	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.73	fARfetch: Enabling Collocated AR-HRC in Large Visually Diverse Environments with VLM-Driven AR Content Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.73	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	Governing Actions, Not Agents: Institutional Attestation as a Governance Model for Autonomous AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.73	When will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?	manifold 2026-06-28	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.73	Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-27	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.73	Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]	manifold 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.73	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.73	From Barrier to Bridge: The Case for AI Data Center/Power Grid Co-Design	arxiv 2026-05-04	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	35%
0.73	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.73	Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-11	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.73	GRAFT: Graph-Tokenized LLMs for Tool Planning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	CO-MAP: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to the Qubit Allocation Problem	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.73	Is ai going to be self repairing?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-25	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.73	Notation Matters: A Benchmark Study of Token-Optimized Formats in Agentic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.73	Latent Performance Profiling of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Fingerprinting Inference Systems of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Surfacing Isolated Learners with Outcome-Independent Mediation of Feedback between Teachers and Students Using AI	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.73	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.73	Does Compression Preserve Uncertainty? A Unified Benchmark for Quantized and Sparse LLMs via Conformal Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	The End of Software Engineering: How AI Agents Are Fundamentally Restructuring the Software Paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.73	What will Anthropic’s publicly traded market value be on 12/31/27	manifold 2026-06-07	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.73	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-08	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.73	Will anthropic be up a week from now?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-09	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.73	Existential Indifference: Self-Nonpreservation as a Necessary Architectural Condition for Aligned Superintelligence (or: The Suicidal AI)	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_035 In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative tasks, humanity faces profound existential questions regarding its 'meaning of life' — potentially leaving humans without a primary teleological purpos... Nick Bostrom	Other	37%
0.73	Existential Indifference: Self-Nonpreservation as a Necessary Architectural Condition for Aligned Superintelligence (or: The Suicidal AI)	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.73	Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-12	236_010 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.73	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	SpaceX closes above $250 at end of month?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.73	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	ENPIRE: Agentic Robot Policy Self-Improvement in the Real World	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Robust Assembly State Reasoning from Action Recognition for Human-Robot Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.73	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-23	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	22%
0.73	Memory Contagion: Cross-Temporal Propagation of Evaluator Bias via Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.73	Quantum Convolutional Neural Networks for Groundwater Heat Plume Prediction: A Surrogate Modeling Approach	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	LaST-HD: Learning Latent Physical Reasoning from Scalable Human Data for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Scaling Laws for Task-Specific LLM Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Are We Ready For An Agent-Native Memory System?	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	56%
0.73	Agentic Analysis for Agentic Infrastructure: An LLM-Powered Pipeline for Comparative Governance of DAO and Corporate AI Protocols	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.73	Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.73	Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-07-01	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.73	Will Rust be the most admired and most desired language in the 2026 StackOverflow developer survey?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-07-03	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.73	244576	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.73	From Barrier to Bridge: The Case for AI Data Center/Power Grid Co-Design	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.73	From Barrier to Bridge: The Case for AI Data Center/Power Grid Co-Design	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	ARIS: Autonomous Research via Adversarial Multi-Agent Collaboration	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.73	AI Co-Mathematician: Accelerating Mathematicians with Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-14	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.73	Will the bitcoin reach ... in 2026 (after market creation on the 25th of May 2026) [ADD ANSWERS] [CRYPTO => USDOLLARS]	manifold 2026-05-25	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.73	Physics Is All You Need? A Case Study in Physicist-Supervised AI Development of Scientific Software	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.73	Towards Healthy Evolution: Exploring the Role and Mechanisms of Human-Agent Interaction in Self-Evolving Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.73	M3imic: Learning a Versatile Whole-Body Controller for Multimodal Motion Mimicking	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	AI Sovereignty: A Qualitative Model of Strategic Competition as AI Becomes an Instrument of National Power	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_005 Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and global defense infrastructure — future geopolitical supremacy dictated entirely by algorithmic dominance rather than traditional kinetic military assets; autonomous drones, AI-driv... Ben Horowitz	Defense	73%
0.73	The Mathematics of AI Winters: The mathematical Taxonomy of Paradigm Fragility in AI Winter	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	RetailBench: Benchmarking long horizon reasoning and coherent decision making of LLM agents in realistic retail environments	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.73	DeepInsight: A Unified Evaluation Infrastructure Across the Physical AI Stack	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	MacAgentBench: Benchmarking AI Agents on Real-World macOS Desktop	arxiv 2026-06-21	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.73	Self-Evolving Cognitive Framework via Causal World Modeling for Embodied Scientific Intelligence	arxiv 2026-06-21	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.73	On the Smallness of the Large Language Models Scaling Exponents	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.73	Exploring Academic Influence of Algorithms by Co-occurrence Network Based on Full-text of Academic Papers	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.73	Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?	manifold 2026-06-25	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	21%
0.73	The Capability Frontier: Benchmarks Miss 82% of Model Performance	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.73	Accelerating Returns and the Qualitative Engine for Science	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.73	Will Elon Musk ever reach a net worth of 1.5 trillion?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-27	242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.73	Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-07-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.73	Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-30	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.73	Overview of Risk Assessment and Management for Intelligent Systems under the AI Act and Beyond	arxiv 2026-07-02	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.73	PACE: A Proxy for Agentic Capability Evaluation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.73	HEFT: Heavy-Payload Full-size Humanoid Teleoperation with Privileged Motion Guidance and Windowed Payload Curriculum	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-04-29	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.73	Humanoid robot walking around me within a year?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.73	why keep buying nvidia stock 160006739.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.73	Will Google or NVIDIA be worth more on June 1?	manifold 2026-05-01	241_015 Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.73	Outcome of Musk v OpenAI?	manifold 2026-05-04	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.73	Which prediction markets IPO in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.73	GPT 5.6 released by…?	manifold 2026-05-18	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.73	Notation Matters: A Benchmark Study of Token-Optimized Formats in Agentic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.73	AI Sovereignty: A Qualitative Model of Strategic Competition as AI Becomes an Instrument of National Power	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.73	Dreaming when Necessary: Advancing World Action Models with Adaptive Multi-Modal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.73	Optimizing Energy-based Neural Network Training with Coherent Ising Machine	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	Topical Phase Transitions in Artificial Intelligence Research: Large-Scale Evidence and an Early-Warning Signature for Emerging Topics	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.73	The Integrator Advantage: Controlled Agentic AI for Small and Medium-Sized Companies	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.73	Kairos: A Native World Model Stack for Physical AI	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.73	Beyond Failure Recovery: An Engagement-Aware Human-in-the-loop Framework for Robotic Systems	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	MuseVLA: An Adaptive Multimodal Sensing Vision-Language-Action Model for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space?	manifold 2026-06-18	241_060 Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers Peter Diamandis	Space	54%
0.73	The Tao of Agency: Autotelic AI, Embedded Agency and Dissolution of the Self	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.73	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.73	Will SpaceX close at a value below its IPO price before the end of 2026?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-23	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%