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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-07 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-09 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_048 Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.71 | Anthropic above 40T valuation on June 14 2027(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-16 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. Peter Diamandis | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.71 | Will I think OpenAI was being honest about their structure in 2025?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-20 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-25 | INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-14 | INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 19% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 58% | ||
| 0.71 | Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 17% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-01 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-03 | ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 29% | ||
| 0.71 | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.71 | Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_006 OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. Sam Altman | AI/Finance | 64% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-02 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.71 | Bitcoin $65K in June?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.71 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 28% | |
| 0.71 | Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 40% | |
| 0.71 | Will there be an AI war before 2100?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 43% | ||
| 0.71 | Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.71 | Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt | Defense | 17% | |
| 0.71 | Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.71 | Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.71 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.71 | Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-10 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.71 | Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.71 | Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | |
| 0.71 | Anthropic above 40T valuation on June 14 2027(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.71 | Will SpaceX have a higher market cap than Amazon at the end of 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-17 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.71 | Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 21% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.71 | Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.71 | Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.71 | Longevity escape velocity before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 21% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.71 | Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-23 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-28 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | ||
| 0.71 | Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | FUT_005 Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... Amy Webb | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.71 | Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis | Space | 79% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-08 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.71 | Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.71 | Will Polymarket IPO on December 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 229_046 Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 28% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.71 | Will I think OpenAI was being honest about their structure in 2025?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.71 | Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | |
| 0.71 | Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-07-01 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.71 | Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-18 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.71 | Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-07 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-12 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.71 | Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.71 | Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | |
| 0.71 | Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 247_026 Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 35% | ||
| 0.71 | Will there be an AI war before 2100?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.71 | New gemini version out in june(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.71 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.71 | Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | |
| 0.71 | Will Elon Musk ever reach a net worth of 1.5 trillion?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.71 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% |