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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.67	Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-21	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.67	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	What's the distribution of people across the intersections of Manifold, LessWrong, and AI Safety?	manifold 2026-06-22	238_035 AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.67	Will my Trader bonuses exceed 100,000 for the June 2026 season?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-06-22	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.67	RECALL: Recovery Experience Collection for Active Lifelong Learning in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.67	Explainable AI in Speaker Recognition -- Attention Map Visualisation and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Libretto: Giving LLM Agents a Sense of Musical Structure	arxiv 2026-06-21	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.67	AgentLens: Interpretable Safety Steering via Mechanistic Subspaces for Multi-Turn Coding Agent	arxiv 2026-06-21	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	Governance Decay: How Context Compaction Silently Erases Safety Constraints in Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	VADAOrchestra: Neurosymbolic Orchestration of Adaptive Reasoning Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	It's Much Easier for Neural Networks to learn Game of Life Dynamics with the Right Activation Function: Polynomial Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.67	EnterpriseClawBench: Benchmarking Agents from Real Workplace Sessions	arxiv 2026-06-22	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.67	First-Token Broadcasters: Mechanistic Origins of Language Identity and Distributed Robustness in Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A Taxonomy of Conceptual Alignment in Human-Robot Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Scalable Multi-Task Data Generation via Reinforcement Learning for Language-Conditioned Bimanual Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.1.0	github_release 2026-03-17	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	SAFARI: Scaling Long Horizon Agentic Fault Attribution via Active Investigation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	SAFARI: Scaling Long Horizon Agentic Fault Attribution via Active Investigation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	G$^3$VLA: Geometric inductive bias for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Social Structure Matters in 3D Human-Human Interaction Generation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Token Complexity of Certifying Stochastic-Oracle Reliability	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.67	MGI: Member vs Generated Inference	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.67	NatureBench: Can Coding Agents Match the Published SOTA of Nature-Family Papers?	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	World Value Models for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Software Performance Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Quantization Inflates Reasoning: Token Inflation as a Hidden Cost of Low-Bit Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	A Hybrid CNN-LSTM Intrusion Detection Framework for Cybersecurity in Smart Renewable Energy Grids	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Transferability for General Reasoning: An Automated Curriculum for Multi-Domain RLVR	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Generating Input Distributions for Explaining Portfolio Optimization Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	OPERA: Aligning Open-Ended Reasoning via Objective Perplexity-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	OPERA: Aligning Open-Ended Reasoning via Objective Perplexity-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Beyond Next-Observation Prediction: Agent-Authored World Modeling for Sequential Decision Making	arxiv 2026-06-24	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Heavy-Ball Q-Learning with Residual Weighting Correction	arxiv 2026-06-25	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.67	Heavy-Ball Q-Learning with Residual Weighting Correction	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	State Representation Matters in Deep Reinforcement Learning: Application to Energy Trading	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.67	Speaking Numbers to LLMs: Multi-Wavelet Number Embeddings for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	CoStream: Composing Simple Behaviors for Generalizable Complex Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	EVOM: Agentic Meta-Evolution of Actor-Critic Architectures for Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	COrigami: An AI Pipeline for Co-Designing Flat-Foldable Visually Recognisable Origami	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Statistical and Structural Approaches to Algorithmic Fairness	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Reinforcement Learning without Ground-Truth Solutions can Improve LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Attributed, But Not Incremental: Cannibalization-Corrected Attribution for Large-Scale Advertising	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	SSI-Policy: Learning Structured Scene Interfaces for Vision-Language Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will X have a prediction market feature before 2030?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-06-28	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Self-Evolving World Models for LLM Agent Planning	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	To Tab or Not to Tab: Measuring Critical Engagement in AI Code Completion Tools Using Behavioral Signals and Attention Checks	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	To Tab or Not to Tab: Measuring Critical Engagement in AI Code Completion Tools Using Behavioral Signals and Attention Checks	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	BayesEvolve: Explicit Belief States for Autonomous Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Towards Continual Motion-Language Agents: LoRA Variants for Incremental Motion Understanding and Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.67	Few-Shot Domain Incremental Learning via Continual Vision-Language Consolidation	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	ACPO: Agent-Chained Policy Optimization for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	AlgoSkill: Learning to Design Algorithms by Scheduling Human-Like Skills	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	LWDrive: Layer-Wise World-Model-Guided Vision-Language Model Planning for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Agent-Computer Observation Interfaces Enable Dynamic Computer Use	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.67	Predict, Reuse, and Repair: Accelerating Dynamic Sparse Attention for Long-Context LLM Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Closing the Activation-Cone Blind Spot: Response-Time Probing and Unified Defense	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Deterministic Decisions for High-Stakes AI. A Zero-Egress Pipeline with the Deployability of RAG and the Accuracy of Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Seeing Touch from Motion: A Unified Modality-Aware Visuo-Tactile Policy with Tactile Motion Correlation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	REPAIR-Bench: A Benchmark for Robot Error Perception And Interaction Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will TheOldLlm get to 1K discord users before the end of next month ?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-30	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.67	Success of SpaceX Starship Flight 14's catch attempts (~Aug)?	manifold 2026-06-30	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	12%
0.67	ECHO: Prune to act, trace to learn with selective turn memory in agentic RL	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Deep Reinforcement Learning for Spacecraft Attitude Control During Atmospheric Re-Entry	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Explaining Machine Learning and Memorization with Statistical Mechanics	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Validating Causal Abstraction Metrics on Simulated Complex Systems	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Steal the Patch Size: Adversarially Manipulate Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	EVOTS: Evolutionary Transformer Search for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-30	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 5?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	ACID: Action Consistency via Inverse Dynamics for Planning with World Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Fast Multi-dimensional Refusal Subspaces via RFM-AGOP	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	The Eticas AI Risk Taxonomy: Open Infrastructure for Operationalizing AI Audits	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Predicting Early Stages Of Alzheimer's Disease And Identifying Key Biomarkers Using Deep Artificial Neural Network And Ensemble Of Machine Learning Methodologies	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.67	Safety Testing LLM Agents at Scale: From Risk Discovery to Evidence-Grounded Verification	arxiv 2026-07-02	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	Autonomous discovery of traffic laws with AI traffic scientists	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	DecompRL: Solving Harder Problems by Learning Modular Code Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-07-06	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	54%
0.67	Standing seats on regular commercial flights by end of 2027?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-07-05	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	22%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 8?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Cortex: A Bidirectionally Aligned Embodied Agent Framework for Long-horizon Manipulation	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Adaptive Inference Batching using Policy Gradients	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Reason, Reward, Refine: Step-Level Errors Corrections with Structured Feedback for Physics Reasoning in Small Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Relational Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Pricing in High-Speed Railway Markets	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	DSWAM: A Dual-System World Action Foundation Model for Fine-Grained Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.67	ToolFailBench: Diagnosing Tool-Use Failures in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	G2VD: Generalizable AI-Generated Video Detection via Counterfactual Intervention and Causal Disentanglement	arxiv 2026-07-06	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.67	Language Models Represent and Transform Concepts with Shared Geometry	arxiv 2026-07-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.67	Nemotron-Labs-3-Puzzle-75B-A9B: Compressing Hybrid MoE LLMs	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.67	Agentic SABRE: An Uncertainty-Aware Neuro-Symbolic Multi-Agent Framework for Adaptive Ransomware Detection	arxiv 2026-07-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	On the effectiveness of reward functions in reinforcement learning for confidence calibration of large language models	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	When Words Predict Workload	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	Socially-Aware Autonomous Doorway Traversal and Payload Delivery for Emergency Assistance	arxiv 2026-07-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	Toward Personalized Social Robots for Child Well-being: Data Requirement Principles from a Recommender-System Perspective	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Governed Caste Reassignment in Heterogeneous Swarms: An Asymmetric-Trust Protocol with Audited Operator Countersignature	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	An Experimental Design Approach to Evaluating Agentic AI's Autonomous Model Discovery	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	TopoBrick: Agentic Topology Sampling of Exogenous Variables for Zero-Shot Building IoT Forecasting	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Designing Maintainable Hybrid Generative Systems: A Quantum-Inspired Approach to Automated Music Harmony Generation	arxiv 2026-07-07	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.67	Evaluating Fine-Tuning and Metrics for Neural Decompilation of Dart AOT Binaries	arxiv 2026-07-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Plainbook: Data Science, in Plain Language	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.67	Narrative World Model: Narratology-Grounded Writer Memory for Long-Form Fiction	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Embodied Human-Robot Interaction via Acoustics: A MARL Approach with AcoustoBots for Spatial Data Physicalization	arxiv 2026-07-07	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.67	Socially-Aware Autonomous Doorway Traversal and Payload Delivery for Emergency Assistance	arxiv 2026-07-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-04-25	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	26%
0.67	Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-04-24	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	nasdaq composite jolted openai stumble 134226671.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	2580728	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.67	samsung q1 earnings ai memory chip demand profit record.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.67		gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.67	microsoft q3 results top expectations driven by intelligent cloud strength 1091450.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.67		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	US Gas Price on May 2 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	another @subquadratic twitter announcement about SubQ model family, in 2026?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-05	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	FDA NDA206709: DIACOMIT (STIRIPENTOL) — BIOCODEX SA	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.91.0	github_release 2026-04-07	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.86.0	github_release 2026-03-18	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.83.0	github_release 2026-02-19	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0	github_release 2024-07-11	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on May 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	The Counterexample Game: Iterated Conceptual Analysis and Repair in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	DMGD: Train-Free Dataset Distillation with Semantic-Distribution Matching in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	What Happens Inside Agent Memory? Circuit Analysis from Emergence to Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	56%
0.67	Pact: A Choreographic Language for Agentic Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.67	AI and Open-data Driven Scalable Solar Power Profiling	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.67	AI and Open-data Driven Scalable Solar Power Profiling	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.67	Caliper-in-the-Loop: Black-Box Optimization for Hyperledger Fabric Performance Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	ARA: Agentic Reproducibility Assessment For Scalable Support Of Scientific Peer-Review	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	On Training Large Language Models for Long-Horizon Tasks: An Empirical Study of Horizon Length	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	MolViBench: Evaluating LLMs on Molecular Vibe Coding	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	A Semantic Autonomy Framework for VLM-Integrated Indoor Mobile Robots: Hybrid Deterministic Reasoning and Cross-Robot Adaptive Memory	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	FDA ANDA215336: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%