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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	Sparse Subspace-to-Expert Sharing for Task-Agnostic Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Hierarchical Certified Semantic Commitment for Byzantine-Resilient LLM-Agent Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	SlimSearcher: Training Efficiency-Aware Web Agents via Adaptive Reward Gating	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	Accounting for Context: Shaping Moral Credences for Value Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Modeling Nonlinear Feature Interactions with Product-Unit Residual Networks	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Hearing the Unspoken: Language Model Priors for Acoustic Adversarial Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	SCALE: Scalable Cross-Attention Learning with Extrapolation for Agentic Workflow Scheduling	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Decision-Aware Evaluation of Physics-Informed Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.65	Learning Explicit Behavioral Models with Adaptive Questions and World-Model Probes	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Adversarial Creation and Detection of AI-Generated Social Bot Content	arxiv 2026-06-05	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.65	Adversarial Creation and Detection of AI-Generated Social Bot Content	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	An Agency-Transferring Model-Free Policy Enhancement Technique	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FASE: Fast Adaptive Semantic Entropy for Code Quality	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.65	(Auto)formalization is supposed to be easy: Trellis process semantics for spelling out rigorous proofs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	CT-VAM: A Cerebello-Thalamic-Inspired Vision-Action Model for Efficient Visuomotor Control	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	AI Assurance in UK Defence: Challenges in Operationalising JSP 936	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_005 Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and global defense infrastructure — future geopolitical supremacy dictated entirely by algorithmic dominance rather than traditional kinetic military assets; autonomous drones, AI-driv... Ben Horowitz	Defense	73%
0.65	Hybridizing Equilibrium Propagation with Ising Machines for Efficient Energy-Based Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Context Rot in AI-Assisted Software Development: Repurposing Documentation Consistency for AI Configuration Artifacts	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.65	RAILS: Verification-Native Clearing For Agentic Commerce	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	The Hidden Bias of Process Reward Models:PRISM for Rewarding the Right Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Beyond Neural Collapse: Task-Intrinsic Geometry Governs Neural Representations in Modular Arithmetic	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Reformulate LLM Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Training under Black-box Discrepancy	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Discovering and decoding latent mean-field structure with variational autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Convolutional Sparse Coding via the Locally Competitive Algorithm on Loihi 2	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	UXBench: Benchmarking User Experience in AI Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.65	OpenBibleTTS: Large-Scale Speech Resources and TTS Models for Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	What Should a Skill Remember? Quality-Cost Trade-offs in Cost-Aware Skill Rewriting for Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_029 'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency. Sam Altman	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.65	AsyncLane: Decoupling Refinement from Advancement in Diffusion Language Model Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Impacts of Histories and Models on LLM Grading: A Study in Advanced Software Engineering Courses	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	ProbeAct: Probe-Guided Training-Free Failure Recovery in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Autonomous Obstacle Removal for Excavators through Policy Learning with Particle Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Real-IKEA: Physical Fidelity is the Prerequisite for Robust Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	The Role of Feedback Alignment in Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Provenance-Grounded Gating and Adaptive Recovery in Synthetic Post-Training Data Curation	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	TRACE: A Unified Rollout Budget Allocation Framework for Efficient Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	PhantomBench: Benchmarking the Non-existential Threat of Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Test-Time Gradient Guidance of Flow Policies in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	A Constrained Natural-Language Interface for Variational Multi-Physics Finite Element Simulations in FEniCS	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	The Arbiter Agent: Continually Monitoring Multi-Agent Conversations to Detect Emergent Misalignment	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Flexible Flows for Biological Sequence Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.65	Decoupling Thought from Speech: Knowledge-Grounded Counterfactual Reasoning for Resilient Multi-Agent Argumentation	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Belief-Space Control for Personalized Cancer Treatment via Active Inference	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	Minimalist Genetic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Minimalist Genetic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	A Systematic Approach for Selecting Trajectories for Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	MemVenom: Triggered Poisoning of Multimodal Memories in Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	MemVenom: Triggered Poisoning of Multimodal Memories in Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Do LLMsMakeNeural Distinguishers Wise?	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Divide-and-Conquer Modeling for the CTF-4-Science Lorenz Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Speaker Group Encoding in Self-supervised Speech Recognition Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Where You Inject Diversity Matters: A Unified Framework for Diverse Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	UXBench: Benchmarking User Experience in AI Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.65	MV-Actor: Aligning Multi-View Semantics and Spatial Awareness for Bimanual Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Towards Data-free and Training-free Compression for Speech Foundation Models Using Parameter Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Designing AI-Supported Focus Groups: A Role x Modality Playbook	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Hey Chat, Can You Teach Me? Structuring Socratic Dialogue for Human Learning in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.65	On the Study of Biometric Spoofing Detection using Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	When Roleplaying, Do Models Believe What They Say?	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Attention by Synchronization in Coupled Oscillator Networks	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Phase Transitions in Attention: A Bayesian Theory of Copy Head Emergence	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Critic Architecture Matters: Dual vs. Unified Critics for Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	Seeing Below the Limit of Detection: A Censored-Poisson Bayesian Latent-Growth Change-Point Detector (the Span Detector) for Serial ctDNA in HR+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	Evaluating and Combating the Impact of Concept Drift on the Performance of Machine Learning-Based Phishing Detection Systems	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.65	Can News Predict the Market? Limits of Zero-Shot Financial NLP and the Role of Explainable AI	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.65	Measuring language complexity from hierarchical reuse of recurring patterns	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Measuring language complexity from hierarchical reuse of recurring patterns	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	The Periodic Table of LLM Reasoning: A Structured Survey of Reasoning Paradigms, Methods, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Steering Multirobot Behavior via Closed-Loop Affine Activation Editing	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	EpiBench: Verifiable Evaluation of AI Agents on Epigenomics Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.65	MaxProof: Scaling Mathematical Proof with Generative-Verifier RL and Population-Level Test-Time Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Real-Time Execution with Autoregressive Policies	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Humor Style Drives Laughter, Topic Shapes Acceptability: Evaluating Bilingual Personal and Political Robot-Delivered AI Jokes	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Proprioceptive-visual correspondence enables self-other distinction in humanoid robots	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Order Is Not Control	arxiv 2026-06-11	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.65	A solvable model for unsupervised federated learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Individual Control Barrier Functions-Guided Diffusion Model for Safe Offline Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Individual Control Barrier Functions-Guided Diffusion Model for Safe Offline Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	The Metric Picks the Winner: Evaluation Choice Flips Model Rankings for Drug-Response Prediction in Unseen Chemistry	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	From Passive Generation to Investigation: A Proactive Scientific Peer Review Agent	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	See Selectively, Act Adaptively: Dual-Level Structural Decomposition for Bimanual Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	EgoEngine: From Egocentric Human Videos to High-Fidelity Dexterous Robot Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	$μ$VLA: On Recurrent Memory for Partially Observable Manipulation in VLA Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-13	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.3	github_release 2026-06-13	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-03-17	240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	35%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	When in Doubt, Plan It Out: Committed Small Language Model Deliberation for Reactive Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	A Causal Model of Theory of Mind in Conflict for Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Beyond Weights and Gradients: A Taxonomy of Federated Learning Messages	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Adaptive and Explicit safe: Triggering Latent Safety Awareness in Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Tensor-Coord: Algebraic Decomposition of Joint Plan Tensors for Conflict-Free Multi-Agent LLM Planning	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	SPRI: SVD-Partitioned Residual Initialization for Data-Constrained MoE Upcycling	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Training and Evaluating Diffusion Policies with Long Context Lengths	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	The Quality-Utility Paradox: Why High-Reward Data Impairs Small Model Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Rhythm of the Deep: A Computational-Linguistic Test of Duality of Patterning in Sperm Whale Codas	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Mind-Studio: Executable World Models with Lookahead Evaluation for Partially Observable Games	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.65	Auditing Reward Hackability in Code RL Training Environments	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_001 Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	48%
0.65	Do Safety Monitors Stay Reliable After an Update? Benchmarking and Predicting Activation-Monitor Staleness	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Hierarchical Advantage Weighting for Online RL Fine-Tuning of VLAs from Sparse Episode Outcomes	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Hierarchical Advantage Weighting for Online RL Fine-Tuning of VLAs from Sparse Episode Outcomes	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	MyPCBench: A Benchmark for Personally Intelligent Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Hidden Degradation Costs in Energy-Cost-Only HEMS Optimisation: Study on Battery and PV Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-06-14	FUT_011 By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.65	GRACE-DS: a Guarded Reward-guided Agent Correction Environment in Data Science	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	p-PSO: A Penalized Particle Swarm Optimization Technique for Finding D-Optimal Designs with Mixed Factors in Generalized Linear Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.65	Contrastive-Difference CKA Reveals Concept-Specific Structural Alignment Across Language Model Architectures	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	GRACE: Step-Level Benchmark for Faithful Reasoning over Context	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Bridging the Usability Gap: Lessons from Interpreting Studies for Machine Interpreting Design	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Beyond English: Uncovering the Multilingual Gap in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	DIFF-IPPO: Diffusion-Based Informative Path Planning with Open-Vocabulary Belief Maps	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning with Inner-loop Dynamics Estimator for Aerial Manipulation under Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Fixed-Point Reasoners: Stable and Adaptive Deep Looped Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	A Red-Team Study of Anthropic Fable 5 & Opus 4.8 Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Security and Privacy Prompts in the Wild: What Users Ask LLMs and How LLMs Respond	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Catastrophic Forgetting is Low-Rank: A Function-Space Theory for Continual Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	LoopCoder-v2: Only Loop Once for Efficient Test-Time Computation Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	AnchorKV: Safety-Aware KV Cache Compression via Soft Penalty with a Refusal Anchor	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	A homotopy-type-theoretic generalization of neurosymbolic inference	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Reversal Q-Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	Unlocking LLM Code Correction with Iterative Feedback Loops	arxiv 2026-06-16	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.65	Unlocking LLM Code Correction with Iterative Feedback Loops	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	NarrativeWorldBench: A Frontier-Saturated Benchmark and a Latent World Model for Long-Horizon Co-Creative Audio Drama	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Transformer-Based Warm-Starting for Feasible and Optimal Terminal Approach to Tumbling Objects with Space Manipulators	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.65	Finite-Time Queue Peak Laws in Stochastic Networks: Logarithmic Scaling After Geometric Thresholds	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	INI-VPINN: A Variational Physics-Informed Neural Network with Implicit Neumann and Interface Handling for Multi-Material Domains with Geometric Singularities	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.65	Damage Adaptation in Seconds for Architected Materials	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Variable-Width Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	GameCraft-Bench: Can Agents Build Playable Games End-to-End in a Real Game Engine?	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.65	Environment-Grounded Automated Prompt Optimization for LLM Game Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Closing the Loop: PID Feedback Control for Interpretable Activation Steering in Symbolic Music Generation	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Code-Augur: Agentic Vulnerability Detection via Specification Inference	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Veriphi: Attack-Guided Neural Network Verification with Dataset-Dependent Training Methods	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.65	Redact or Keep? A Fully Local AI Cascade for Educational Dialogue De-Identification	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Giskard : Byzantine Robust and Confidential Aggregation for Large-Scale Decentralized Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Geometric and Stochastic Analysis of Discontinuities in Sparse Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Learning Augmented Exact Exponential Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	MetaboNet-Bench: A Multi-modal Benchmark for Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	TS-Fault: Benchmarking Time Series Forecasters Against Structural Faults	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Evaluating Prompting-Based Defenses Against Domain-Camouflaged Injection Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Beyond Prediction: Tail-Aware Scheduling for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.65	Learning User Simulators with Turing Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	LegalWorld: A Life-Cycle Interactive Environment for Legal Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Want Better Synthetic Data? Steer It: Activation Steering for Low-Resource Language Generation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	SRL: Combining SLIP Model and Reinforcement Learning for Agile Robotic Jumping	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	DREAM-Chunk: Reactive Action Chunking with Latent World Model	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	PAIWorld: A 3D-Consistent World Foundation Model for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Ground state preparation of random all-to-all Hamiltonians using ADAPT-VQE	arxiv 2026-06-16	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.65	DeepSWIP: Quotient-WMC Counterfactuals for Neural Probabilistic Logic Programs	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	ScholarQuest: A Taxonomy-Guided Benchmark for Agentic Academic Paper Search in Open Literature Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	When Lower Privileges Suffice: Investigating Over-Privileged Tool Selection in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_057 Democratization of sophisticated AI tools means any 'kid in a basement' can now build world-changing applications via API access to frontier models. Mark Cuban	AI	56%
0.65	eCNNTO: A Highly Generalizable ConvNet for Accelerating Topology Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	eCNNTO: A Highly Generalizable ConvNet for Accelerating Topology Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	IHBench: Evaluating Post-Interruption Recovery in Voice Agents with Structured Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Quantum ring all-reduce: communication and privacy advantages for distributed learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.65	Comparative Study of Neural Surrogate Architectures for Autoregressive Prediction of Internal Battery States	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_058 The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized solar + residential/commercial battery storage will shift power management toward microgrids where local DNOs optimize autonomously, turning millions of ho... Andrew Yang	Energy	52%
0.65	Deep-Unfolded Coordination	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Deep-Unfolded Coordination	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	ADaPT: Token-Level Decoupling for Efficient Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.65	Matching Markets meet Cumulative Prospect Theory: Towards Optimal and Adversarially Robust Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Leverage Is Not Reach: A Control-Window Law for Single-Neuron Steering in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Leverage Is Not Reach: A Control-Window Law for Single-Neuron Steering in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Low-Burden Data Augmentation for Dysarthric ASR via Zero-Shot Voice Cloning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Beyond Global Replanning: Hierarchical Recovery for Cross-Device Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Actionable Activation Directions for Detecting and Mitigating Emergent Misalignment Across Language Model Families	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	Increasing Resilience of Continuum Robots via Motion Planning Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	An Infrastructure-less, Control-Independent Solution to Relative Localisation of a Team of Mobile Robots using Ranging Measurements	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Stable Transformer-Actor-Critic Model Predictive Control: A Contraction Analysis Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	SWAP: Symmetric Equivariant World-Model for Agile Robot Parkour	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	ForEnt: A Multi-Modal Dataset for Characterizing Quadruped Robot Entrapments in Forest Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	Factorized Quantum Curves and Voronoi Polytopes in 3D Duality Cascades with FI Parameters	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	In which month will Apple announce a Mac mini with an M5 series chipset?	manifold 2026-06-21	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-19	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	RECALL: Recovery Experience Collection for Active Lifelong Learning in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Causal Discovery in the Era of Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	POTracker: Optimizing Large Language Models for Standard-Compliant Power Outage Report Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	GRINQH: Graded Input-based Quantization Hierarchy for Efficient LLM Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	EHR-Complex: Benchmarking Medical Agents for Complex Clinical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	The Geometry of Refusal: Linear Instability in Safety-Aligned LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	The Power of Light: Improving Synthetic-to-Real Domain Adaptation through Physically-Based Indirect Illumination	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	The Anatomy of the CTC Oracle Gap: Acoustic Exhaustion and Linguistic Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	GRIMIP: A General Framework for Instance-Specific Configuration of MIP Solvers Using LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Leveraging AutoML for Sustainable Deep Learning: A Multi-Objective HPO Approach on Deep Shift Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Substitution-Based Analysis of Structural Novelty for Generative Models of Materials	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	When AUC 0.998 Is Not Enough: A Candidate Evaluation Protocol for Hidden-State Probes of Indirect Prompt Injection in Multimodal Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	When AUC 0.998 Is Not Enough: A Candidate Evaluation Protocol for Hidden-State Probes of Indirect Prompt Injection in Multimodal Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Scalable Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning for Diffusion Policies via Adjoint Matching	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	A Taxonomy of Conceptual Alignment in Human-Robot Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-21	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Do Rigid-Body Simulators Dream of Soft Robots? Learning Contact-Rich Manipulation for Tendon-Driven Continuum Robots	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.1.0	github_release 2026-03-17	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Solving Inverse Problems of Chaotic Systems with Bidirectional Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	EG-VQA: Benchmarking Verifiable Video Question Answering with Grounded Temporal Evidence	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Assessing Distribution Shift in Human Activity Recognition for Domain Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	LemonHarness Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	OmniPath: A Multi-Modal Agentic Framework for Auditing Wheelchair Accessibility	arxiv 2026-06-23	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	Beyond Trajectory Imitation: Strategy-Guided Policy Optimization for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	EMAgnet: Parameter-Space EMA Regularization for Policy Gradient Self-Play in Large Games	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Are Safety Guarantees in Neural Networks Safe? How to Compute Trustworthy Robustness Certifications	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Sesame: Structure-Aware Molecular Generation via Spatial Density-Map Conditioning	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	EnerInfer: Energy-Aware On-Device LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Parallel Dynamic Programming for Conic Linear Quadratic Control	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	RoBoSR: Structured Scene Representations for Embodied Robotic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Sim-to-Real Betting on the E-Process: Bringing "simulators" to anytime-valid confidence sequences	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Name something AI has gotten crazy good at in the last year. (Bilt Rent Free Jul 1, 2026)	manifold 2026-06-25	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.65	Semantic Consistency Policy Optimization for Reinforcement Learning of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Reasonable Motion: A General ASP Foundation for Environment Constrained Movement Trajectory Computation	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Long-Term Simulation Exposes Cognitive-Developmental Risks in AI Companions	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	TRUSTMEM: Learning Trustworthy Memory Consolidation for LLM Agents with Long-Term Memory	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Training for the Model You Return: Improving Optimization for Iterate-Averaged Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	Hierarchical Graph Learning for Calendar Spread Strategies in Commodity Futures Markets	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Leaking Circuit Secrets: Gradient Leakage Attacks on Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.65	FUTO Swipe: Layout-Agnostic Neural Swipe Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Neural operator-based digital twins for modeling amyloid-$β$ and tau propagation and treatment optimization in Alzheimer's disease	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	From Forecasting Leaderboards to Deployment Decisions: A Fail-Closed Certification Protocol	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	DeformGen: Dynamics-Based Topology Augmentation for Deformable Manipulation Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	StairMaster: Learning to Conquer Risky Hollow Stairs for Agile Quadrupedal Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	StairMaster: Learning to Conquer Risky Hollow Stairs for Agile Quadrupedal Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	One Body, Two Minds: Variable Autonomy Approach for a Co-embodied Robotic Hand	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Swazure: Swarm Measurement of Pose for Flying Light Specks	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Learning Perceptive Platform Adaptive Locomotion Controllers for Quadrupedal Robots	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will GPT 5.6 Sol be available at 700+ tok/s on Cerebras when released to the public?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-26	248_005 V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. Video Narration (SpaceX)	Space	79%
0.65	Joint Learning of Experiential Rules and Policies for Large Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Semantic Early-Stopping for Iterative LLM Agent Loops	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	In-Context Model Predictive Generation: Open-Vocabulary Motion Synthesis from Language Models to Physics	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	A Multi-Level Validation and Traceability Framework for AI-Generated Telescope Scheduling Decisions	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	A Multi-Level Validation and Traceability Framework for AI-Generated Telescope Scheduling Decisions	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	A Multi-Level Validation and Traceability Framework for AI-Generated Telescope Scheduling Decisions	arxiv 2026-06-25	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.65	Temporal Validity in Retrieval Memory: Eliminating Stale-Fact Errors for AI Agents over Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Temporal Validity in Retrieval Memory: Eliminating Stale-Fact Errors for AI Agents over Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Clinical Harness for Governable Medical AI Skill Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Clinical Harness for Governable Medical AI Skill Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	Play2Perfect: What Matters in Dexterous Play Pretraining for Precise Assembly?	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	DMuon: Efficient Distributed Muon Training with Near-Adam Overhead	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Kolmogorov Arnold networks (KAN) for aerodynamic prediction: a comparison with MLPs and GNNs	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Epiphany-Aware KV Cache Eviction Without the Attention Matrix	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	OPID: On-Policy Skill Distillation for Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Bridging Handheld and Teleoperated Supervision for Contact-Rich Manipulation via State-Gated Experts	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	A System for Fast, Resilient, and Adaptable Loco-Manipulation Behaviors on Humanoid Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Racing a Wheeled Quadruped: Active Load Transfer Mitigation via Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	GRAINS: Storage-Aware Algorithm-Architecture Co-Design Enabling High-Performance and Low-Cost Graph-Based Genome Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will HIMS close at 50.00 or higher in 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	VLK: Learning Humanoid Loco-Manipulation from Synthetic Interactions in Reconstructed Scenes	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Words Speak Louder Than Code: Investigating Cognitive Heuristics in LLM-Based Code Vulnerability Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Informational Frustration in Neural Manifolds: Shannon Bottlenecks and the Limits of Learnability	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Beyond IID: How General Are Tabular Foundation Models, Really?	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Beyond IID: How General Are Tabular Foundation Models, Really?	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	DRIFT: Difficulty Routing Self-DIstillation with Rhythm-Gated Exploration and Success BuFfer Training	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	BayesEvolve: Explicit Belief States for Autonomous Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Rehearsed Multi-Agent Live Product Demonstrations with Real-Time Voice Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Neural Subspace Reallocation: Continual Learning as Retrieval-Based Subspace Memory Management	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	HippoSpark: An On-Demand Experience System for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	RoAd-RL: A Unified Library and Benchmark for Robust Adversarial Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Exploring Motivations for Algorithm Mention in the Domain of Natural Language Processing: A Deep Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	DeepTrans Studio: Turning Expert Interventions into Shared Team Knowledge in Agentic Translation Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	GUICrafter: Weakly-Supervised GUI Agent Leveraging Massive Unannotated Screenshots	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	A Machine-Verified Proof of a Quantum-Optimization Conjecture	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.65	A Machine-Verified Proof of a Quantum-Optimization Conjecture	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.65	Faults in Our Formal Benchmarking: Dataset Defects and Evaluation Failures in Lean Theorem Proving	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Staged Hybridisation for Visual Quantum Reinforcement Learning via Knowledge Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Toward an Energy-Optimized Operation of Data Centers Located in Wind Farms Using Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	35%
0.65	When Is a Draft Accepted? A Theory of Acceptance in Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	B3O: Scalable Boltzmann Batch Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Fractional Stochastic Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	DNA Language Models: An Assessment of Pre-Training for Fine-Tuning Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-29	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Mixture of Debaters: Learn to Debate at Architectural Level in Multi-Agent Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	The Complexity Ceiling Benchmark: A Multi-Domain Evaluation of Sequential Reasoning Under Depth Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Representational Depth of Evaluation Awareness Shifts With Scale in Open-Weight Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-28	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.65	Data-Driven Modeling and Control for Tethered Space Systems with Koopman-Informed Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	Data-Driven Modeling and Control for Tethered Space Systems with Koopman-Informed Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.65	PL-LIT: A LiDAR-Inertial-Thermal SLAM Using Point-Line Features and Thermographic Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.115.0	github_release 2026-06-30	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	QVal: Cheaply Evaluating Dense Supervision Signals for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Review Residuals: Update-Conditioned Residual Gating for Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Low-dimensional topology of deep neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Evil Spectra: How Optimisers can Amplify or Suppress Emergent Misalignment	arxiv 2026-06-30	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	From Failure to Alignment: A Requirements Engineering Framework for Machine Learning Systems	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Learning to Select, Not Relearn: Hard-Routed Mixtures of Reasoning LoRAs	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Deep Reinforcement Learning for Spacecraft Attitude Control During Atmospheric Re-Entry	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Fora: From Weight-Space to Function-Space Protection in Capability-Preserving Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	SGD at the Edge of Stability: Stochastic Stabilization with Large Learning Rates	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.65	FDA NDA219304: ROMVIMZA (VIMSELTINIB) — DECIPHERA PHARMS	fda 2026-06-26	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 3?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Optimal scaling of MCMC algorithms: exploiting the symmetry of the Metropolis-Hastings formula	arxiv 2026-07-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Neural Network-Based Estimation of Time-Dependent Parameters in AR(p) Processes	arxiv 2026-07-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Information-Regularized Attention for Visual-Centric Reasoning	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	The Illusion of High Utility in Safety Alignment of Text-to-Image Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	When AI meets quantum information: A comprehensive review	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Mapping the Evaluation Frontier: An Empirical Survey of the Bias-Reliability Tradeoff Across Eleven Evaluator-Agent Conditions	arxiv 2026-07-01	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.65	Self-Organized Learning in Oscillatory Neural Networks with Memristive Signed Couplings	arxiv 2026-07-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	SNAP-FM: Sparse Nonlinear Accelerated Projection for Physics-Constrained Generative Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 5?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	EvoPolicyGym: Evaluating Autonomous Policy Evolution in Interactive Environments	arxiv 2026-07-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	The Dual Nature of LLM Persona: Aggregated Tendencies and Frame-Dependent Geometry	arxiv 2026-07-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	A$^{2}$utoLPBench: An Auto-Generated, Agent-Friendly LP Benchmark via Inverse-KKT Construction	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Behind the Refusal: Determining Guardrail Activation via Behavioral Monitoring	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.65	InduceKV: Fixed-Footprint Continual Adaptation of Multimodal LLMs via Inducing KV Memories	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	ElephantAgent: Contextual State Continuity in Agentic Systems	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	An Exploratory Study on LLM-Generated Code and Comments in Code Repositories	arxiv 2026-07-02	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	64%
0.65	Mixture-of-Parallelisms: Towards Memory-Efficient Training Stack for Mixture-of-Experts Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	Autonomous discovery of traffic laws with AI traffic scientists	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	A More Accurate Algorithm Comparison through A/B Testing using Offline Evaluation Methods	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	Hybrid quantum-classical neural network for sentiment analysis	arxiv 2026-07-02	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.65	Hybrid quantum-classical neural network for sentiment analysis	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Quantum-Inspired Vision: Leveraging Wave-Particle Duality for Low-Illumination Enhancement	arxiv 2026-07-02	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.65	Unlocking Speech-Text Compositional Powers: Instruction-Following Speech Language Models without Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	VT-WAM: Visual-Tactile World Action Model for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 5?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 6?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will fatespeaker reach Candidate Master on Codeforces before 2027?(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-07-04	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.65	facebookresearch/nevergrad 1.02	github_release 2024-02-20	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	facebookresearch/nevergrad 0.14.0	github_release 2023-10-01	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 7?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	FDA ANDA217329: FOSTAMATINIB DISODIUM (FOSTAMATINIB DISODIUM) — ANNORA PHARMA	fda 2026-06-17	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 7?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	LLM-Based Test Oracles: Source-of-Authority Taxonomy -- A Systematic Literature Review	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Predicting Drafted Deck Strength for "Magic: the Gathering"	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Multi-Turn On-Policy Distillation with Prefix Replay	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	FORGE: Research-Trajectory Hijacking Attacks on Deep Research Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	URSA: Chemistry-Aware Benchmark for Utilitarian Retrosynthesis Assessment	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_020 Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving... Morgan Stanley	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	ToolFailBench: Diagnosing Tool-Use Failures in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.65	ToolFailBench: Diagnosing Tool-Use Failures in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Obey, Diverge, Collapse: Blind Obedience to Incorrect Instructions Drives Code LLMs to Irrecoverable Code Semantic Collapse	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.65	Obey, Diverge, Collapse: Blind Obedience to Incorrect Instructions Drives Code LLMs to Irrecoverable Code Semantic Collapse	arxiv 2026-07-05	IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	61%
0.65	Lyapunov-Guided Training for Hardware-Safe Neural Networks Under Fixed-Point Arithmetic	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	RoboDojo: A Unified Sim-and-Real Benchmark for Comprehensive Evaluation of Generalist Robot Manipulation Policies	arxiv 2026-07-05	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.65	UI-MOPD: Multi-Platform On-Policy Distillation for Continual GUI Agent Learning	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Conflict-Based Lazy Search for Fast Multi-Manipulator Planning	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	PLACEMEM: Toward a Compute-Aware Memory Plane for Lifelong Agents	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	56%
0.65	How Much is Left? LLMs Linearly Encode Their Remaining Output Length	arxiv 2026-07-06	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Qantara: Bridge-Flow Training for Multi-Paradigm JEPA Control	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Multi-Large Language Model Orchestrated Severity Assessment of Clinical Records (MOSAIC)	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.65	Mechanism-level routing failure in LLMs over Lean-verified algebraic structures	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Don't Commit Alone: Joint Token Commitment in Diffusion Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Spinning Straw into Gold: Relabeling LLM Agent Trajectories in Hindsight for Successful Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Teaching Code LLMs to Reason with Intermediate Formal Specifications	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.65	Socially-Aware Autonomous Doorway Traversal and Payload Delivery for Emergency Assistance	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	InternVLA-A1.5: Unifying Understanding, Latent Foresight, and Action for Compositional Generalization	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Athena-WBC: Capability-Aligned Policy Experts for Long-Tail Humanoid Whole-Body Control	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	KAM-WM: Kinematic Affordance Maps from Latent World Models for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Anytime Plug-and-Play Control with Contract-Based Distributed MPC	arxiv 2026-07-05	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Anytime Plug-and-Play Control with Contract-Based Distributed MPC	arxiv 2026-07-05	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	A Century of Group Theory in Particle Physics and Beyond	arxiv 2026-07-06	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.65	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	China vs Japan Conflict before 2027?	manifold 2026-04-29	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.65	When will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack?	manifold 2026-04-28	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.65	10729180	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.65	amazon chipmaker sell trainium ai chips nvidia 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.65	186161	gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.65	How many StackOverflow questions in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.65	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley	Energy	46%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 5?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	55%
0.65	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	FDA ANDA215575: ANDA215575 ((unspecified)) — QILU PHARM HAINAN	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA210386: CANAGLIFLOZIN (CANAGLIFLOZIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-04-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.76.0	github_release 2026-01-13	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	huggingface/transformers v5.5.4	github_release 2026-04-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	huggingface/transformers v4.57.0	github_release 2025-10-03	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor	Finance/Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Which Starship Variants will fly before 2032	manifold 2026-05-06	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.65	Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.65	AniMatrix: An Anime Video Generation Model that Thinks in Art, Not Physics	arxiv 2026-05-05	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.65	Unifying Dynamical Systems and Graph Theory to Mechanistically Understand Computation in Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Learning Generalizable Action Representations via Pre-training AEMG	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	SkCC: Portable and Secure Skill Compilation for Cross-Framework LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	VLMaxxing through FrameMogging Training-Free Anti-Recomputation for Video Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.65	Evaluating Prompting and Execution-Based Methods for Deterministic Computation in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Gated Subspace Inference for Transformer Acceleration	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Computing Thiele Rules on Interval Elections and their Generalizations	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	The Design and Composition of Structural Causal Decision Processes	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Task Vector Geometry Underlies Dual Modes of Task Inference in Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Real Image Denoising with Knowledge Distillation for High-Performance Mobile NPUs	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	GRIFDIR: Graph Resolution-Invariant FEM Diffusion Models in Function Spaces over Irregular Domains	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	When Prompts Interact: Assessing Prompt Arithmetic for Deconfounding under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.65	MPCS: Neuroplastic Continual Learning via Multi-Component Plasticity and Topology-Aware EWC	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	A Novel Preprocessing-Driven Approach to Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction Using Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN)	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	A Comprehensive Analysis of Tokenization and Self-Supervised Learning in End-to-End Automatic Speech Recognition applied on French Language	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Reliability-Oriented Multilingual Orthopedic Diagnosis: A Domain-Adaptive Modeling and a Conceptual Validation Framework	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Sharpness-Aware Pretraining Mitigates Catastrophic Forgetting	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Adaptive Gait Generation for Multi-Terrain Exoskeletons via Constrained Kernelized Movement Primitives	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	FDA NDA020941: ABREVA (DOCOSANOL) — HALEON US HOLDINGS	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	MRI-Eval: A Tiered Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Performance on MRI Physics and GE Scanner Operations Knowledge	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Self-Induced Outcome Potential: Turn-Level Credit Assignment for Agents without Verifiers	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Why Expert Alignment Is Hard: Evidence from Subjective Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Budgeted LoRA: Distillation as Structured Compute Allocation for Efficient Inference	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post4	github_release 2023-10-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Will any major USD stablecoin (USDT/USDC/PYUSD) face a federal regulatory enforcement action by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-05-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.65	Superintelligent Retrieval Agent: The Next Frontier of Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Continuous Latent Diffusion Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Operator-Guided Invariance Learning for Continuous Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	SCRuB: Social Concept Reasoning under Rubric-Based Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	BioMedArena: An Open-source Toolkit for Building and Evaluating Biomedical Deep Research Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.65	Policy-Guided Stepwise Model Routing for Cost-Effective Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Milestone-Guided Policy Learning for Long-Horizon Language Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.65	Inductive Venn-Abers and related regressors	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	ReActor: Reinforcement Learning for Physics-Aware Motion Retargeting	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Hedging Memory Horizons for Non-Stationary Prediction via Online Aggregation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs for Explainable Risk Management	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.65	Preliminary Insights in Chronos Frequency Data Understanding and Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	PoTAcc: A Pipeline for End-to-End Acceleration of Power-of-Two Quantized DNNs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Matrix-Decoupled Concentration for Autoregressive Sequences: Dimension-Free Guarantees for Sparse Long-Context Rewards	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	TableVista: Benchmarking Multimodal Table Reasoning under Visual and Structural Complexity	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	GA3T: A Ground-Aerial Terrain Traversability Dataset for Heterogeneous Robot Teams in Unstructured Environments	arxiv 2026-05-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	DexSynRefine: Synthesizing and Refining Human-Object Interaction Motion for Physically Feasible Dexterous Robot Actions	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	MaMi-HOI: Harmonizing Global Kinematics and Local Geometry for Human-Object Interaction Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	When Life Gives You BC, Make Q-functions: Extracting Q-values from Behavior Cloning for On-Robot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Lecture Notes on Statistical Physics and Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-11	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.65	Which of the following will be true about this market as of 2026-05-26 13:00 UTC? [Add answers]	manifold 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-11	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 13?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	A New Technique for AI Explainability using Feature Association Map	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	SOAR: Scale Optimization for Accurate Reconstruction in NVFP4 Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	GeomHerd: A Forward-looking Herding Quantification via Ricci Flow Geometry on Agent Interactive Simulations	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	OUI as a Structural Observable: Towards an Activation-Centric View of Neural Network Training	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Efficient and provably convergent end-to-end training of deep neural networks with linear constraints	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Attention Once Is All You Need: Efficient Streaming Inference with Stateful Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	GHGbench: A Unified Multi-Entity, Multi-Task Benchmark for Carbon Emission Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Humanwashing -- It Should Leave You Feeling Dirty	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy	AI	51%
0.65	Sampling from Flow Language Models via Marginal-Conditioned Bridges	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Switching Successor Measures for Hierarchical Zero-shot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Amortized Neural Clustering of Time Series based on Statistical Features	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.65	DiffusionHijack: Supply-Chain PRNG Backdoor Attack on Diffusion Models and Quantum Random Number Defense	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	Large Language Models Lack Temporal Awareness of Medical Knowledge	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	JEDI: Joint Embedding Diffusion World Model for Online Model-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Protocol-Driven Development: Governing Generated Software Through Invariants and Evidence	arxiv 2026-05-13	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.65	When Should an AI Workflow Release? Always-Valid Inference for Black-Box Generate-Verify Systems	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.65	The Efficiency Gap in Byte Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.65	Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.65	TopoPrimer: The Missing Topological Context in Forecasting Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Angel or Demon: Investigating the Plasticity Interventions' Impact on Backdoor Threats in Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Focused PU learning from imbalanced data	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Minimal-Intervention KV Retention: A Design-Space Study and a Diversity-Penalty Survivor	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Not All Timesteps Matter Equally: Selective Alignment Knowledge Distillation for Spiking Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	FDA NDA215256: WEGOVY (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	How many countries will I visit this year? (2026)	manifold 2026-05-17	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.65	S&p500 May 2026 prop bets	manifold 2026-05-17	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%