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108,318 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 11 of 47, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Position: Weight Space Should Be a First-Class Generative AI Modality	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	A More Word-like Image Tokenization for MLLMs	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	One Model, Two Roles: Emergent Specialization in a Shared Recurrent Transformer	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	LLMForge: Multi-Backend Hardware-Aware Neural Architecture Search with Infinite-Head Attention for Edge Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-29	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.69	SchGen: PCB Schematic Generation with Semantic-Grounded Code Representations	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	RoboWits: Unexpected Challenges for Robotic Creative Problem Solving	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	AgentDoG 1.5: A Lightweight and Scalable Alignment Framework for AI Agent Safety and Security	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.69	Anti Mode-Collapse in Mean-Field Transformer via Auxiliary Variables	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	Implicit Identity Technologies for LLMs: Fingerprinting and Watermarking across Datasets, Models, and Generated Content	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	HEART-Bench: Do LLM Agents Exhibit Human-like Psychology?	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	HEART-Bench: Do LLM Agents Exhibit Human-like Psychology?	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Attention Asymmetry in AI Layoff Discourse on X: A Computational Analysis of Capital vs Labour Amplification	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.69	Who will be the next Democratic candidate for 2028?	manifold 2026-05-31	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	🌭What will happen in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-06-01	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	MASER: Modality-Adaptive Specialist Routing for Embodied 3D Spatial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Beyond One-shot: AI Agents for Learning in Field Experiments	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	MOC: Multi-Order Communication in LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	PlanarBench: Evaluating LLM Spatial Reasoning via Planar Graph Drawing	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	MMG2Skill: Can Agents Distill In-the-Wild Guides into Self-Evolving Skills?	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	WorldCoder-Bench: Benchmarking Physically Grounded 3D World Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	An Enigma of Artificial Reason: Investigating the Production-Evaluation Gap in Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.69	Auditing Asset-Specific Preferences in Financial Large Language Models: Evidence from Bitcoin Representations and Portfolio Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-01	234_024 Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	44%
0.69	Unified Context Evolution for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Benchmarking LLM-as-a-Judge for Long-Form Output Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Consistent and Distinctive: LLM Benchmark Efficiency via Maximum Independent Set Prompt Selection on Similarity Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7?(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Quantum enhanced rare event discovery and sampling	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Probing Outcome-Level Resemblance and Mechanism-Level Alignment in LLM Risk Decisions: Evidence from the St. Petersburg Game	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Can Crowdsourcing Survive the LLM Era? A Community Survey on Human Data Collection	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	R-APS: Compositional Reasoning and In-Context Meta-Learning for Constrained Design via Reflective Adversarial Pareto Search	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	HORIZON: Recoverability-Governed Curriculum for Physical-Domain Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Instant-Fold: In-Context Imitation Learning for Deformable Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.107.0	github_release 2026-06-06	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.69	Act As a Real Researcher: A Suite of Benchmarks Evaluating Frontier LLMs and Agentic Harnesses in Research Lifecycle	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.69	Reversible Foundations: Training a 120B Sparse MoE through State-Preserving Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Sustainability and Artificial Intelligence: Necessary, Challenging, and Promising Intersections	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_024 Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habi... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.69	The Token Not Taken: Sampling, State, and the Variability of AI Agent Outputs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.69	Unifying Object-Centric World Models and Diffusion Policy: A Hierarchical Framework for Multi-Stage Robotic Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	APEX4: Efficient Pure W4A4 LLM Inference via Intra-SM Compute Rebalancing	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.69	From Shortcuts to Reasoning: Robust Post-Training of Theory of Mind with Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Understanding the Parameter Space Geometry of Transformers Encoding Boolean Functions	arxiv 2026-06-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	Deterministic Execution of ROS~2 Applications via Lingua Franca	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Real-Time and Accurate Collision-Free Teleoperation via Differentiable Constraint-Based Trajectory Planning	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will SpaceX (SPCX) closing price on its first trading day be greater than $135?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.69	Mind the Gap: Can Frontier LLMs Pass a Standardized Office Proficiency Exam?	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Act on What You See: Unlocking Safe Social Navigation in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.109.1	github_release 2026-06-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Ambient Diffusion Policy: Imitation Learning from Suboptimal Data in Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Agentic Environment Engineering for Large Language Models: A Survey of Environment Modeling, Synthesis, Evaluation, and Application	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	DuoBench: A Reproducible Benchmark for Bimanual Manipulation in Simulation and the Real World	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Bootstrapped Monitoring: Leveraging Transparent Reasoning to Oversee Stronger AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.69	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.69	Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.69	Before You Think: System 0, AI-Mediated Cognition and Cognitive Colonization	arxiv 2026-06-11	SPC_030 Eureka Labs vision: 'teacher + AI symbiosis' that scales human expertise infinitely — generating hyper-capable problem-solvers aligned with the space-colonization-workforce demand of the 2030s. Andrej Karpathy	Education	55%
0.69	Select and Improve: Understanding the Mechanics of Post-Training for Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.69	An Embodied Simulation Platform, Benchmark, and Data-Efficient Augmentation Framework for Wet-Lab Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Fantastic Scientific Agents and How to Build Them: AgentBuild for Rietveld Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	GeoNatureAgent Benchmark: Benchmarking LLM Agents for Environmental Geospatial Analysis Across Frontier and Open-Weight Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.69	Benchmarking AI Agents for Addressing Scientific Challenges Across Scales	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Token Complexity Theory for AI-Augmented Computing	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Smarter Saboteurs, Better Fixers: Scaling & Security in Linear Multi-Agent Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.69	SkillChain: Closing the Loop on Skill Evolution for Image-Based E-Commerce AI Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Y-BotFrame: An Extensible Embodied Agent Framework for Quadruped Robot Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.69	Y-BotFrame: An Extensible Embodied Agent Framework for Quadruped Robot Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	When will Anthropic's API customers get access to Fable 5 again?	manifold 2026-06-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	When in Doubt, Plan It Out: Committed Small Language Model Deliberation for Reactive Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Kairos: A Native World Model Stack for Physical AI	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	How to Detect and Measure the AI Dangers to Democracy	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_006 Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	56%
0.69	Open-SWE-Traces: Advancing Dual-Mode Multilingual Distillation for Software Engineering Agents	arxiv 2026-06-14	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.69	Agentic Framework for Deep Learning workload migration via In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	LLM-as-Code Agentic Programming for Agent Harness	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	RetailBench: Benchmarking long horizon reasoning and coherent decision making of LLM agents in realistic retail environments	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Fantastic Pretraining Optimizers and Where to Find Them II: Hyperball Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Evaluating LLM Personalization via Semantic Constraint Verification	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	V2P-Manip: Learning Dexterous Manipulation from Monocular Human Videos	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Dimensionality Controls When Modularity Helps in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	DeepInsight: A Unified Evaluation Infrastructure Across the Physical AI Stack	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Dissecting model behavior through agent trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Performance-Driven Environment Abstraction with Multi-Timescale Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	WeaveLA: Event Driven Cross-Subtask Latent Memory Weaving for Repetitive Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Human-AI Coevolution Dynamics: A Formal Theory of Social Intelligence Emergence Through Long-Term Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	A Controlled Benchmark of Quantum-Latent GAN Augmentation for Brain MRI	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	URDF Synthesis from RGB-D Sequences via Differentiable Joint Inference and Energy-Consistent Verification	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Skill-MAS: Evolving Meta-Skill for Automatic Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	CEO-Bench: Can Agents Play the Long Game?	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.69	As You Wish: Mission Planning with Formal Verification using LLMs in Precision Agriculture	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	Written by AI, Managed by AI: Semantic Space Control and Index Sickness Elimination Across 391 Consecutive Sessions	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	A Scalable Embodied Intelligence Platform for Seamless Real-to-Sim-to-Real Transfer of Household Mobile Manipulation Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.69	Low-Energy Reduced RISC-V Instruction Subset Processor for Tsetlin Machine Inference at the Edge	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Low-Energy Reduced RISC-V Instruction Subset Processor for Tsetlin Machine Inference at the Edge	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Low-Energy Reduced RISC-V Instruction Subset Processor for Tsetlin Machine Inference at the Edge	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-21	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.69	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-23	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.69	CoorDex: Coordinating Body and Hand Priors for Continuous Dexterous Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	GIF: Locally Sound Geometric Information Flow Control for LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	AI Fiction in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	KEMO: Event-Driven Keyframe Memory for Long-Horizon Robot Manipulation with VLA Policies	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	HERCULES: An Open-Source Simulation Framework for Heterogeneous Multi-Robot SLAM, Collaborative Perception, and Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.69	World Models in Pieces: Structural Certification for General Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.69	The Latent Bridge: A Continuous Slow-Fast Channel for Real-Time Game Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Engineering Reliable Autonomous Systems: Challenges and Solutions	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	SoK: AI Secure Code Generation: Progress, Pitfalls, and Paths Forward	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	ASSCG: Just-Right Gating over Chattering for Fast-Slow LLM Planning in Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Reflective VLA: In-Context Action Consequences Make VLAs Generalize	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	ARTOO-DARTU: Studying AR-HRC With AR Obstruction Mitigation During a Warehouse Task	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	The Inattentional Gap: Task-Conditioned Language and Vision Models Omit the Safety-Critical Signals They Can Otherwise Report	arxiv 2026-06-25	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	LiMoDE: Rethinking Lifelong Robot Manipulation from a Mixture-of-Dynamic-Experts Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	LiMoDE: Rethinking Lifelong Robot Manipulation from a Mixture-of-Dynamic-Experts Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	Entity Binding Failures in Tool-Augmented Agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.69	Neural Procedural Memory: Empowering LLM Agents with Implicit Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Lie Group Diffusion Models for Hardware-Aware Quantum Circuit Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Towards Physical Intuitions for Alignment Dynamics: A Case Study With Randomness Crystallization	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Chronos: A Physics-Informed Full-History Framework for Non-Markovian Long-Horizon Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	AERIS: Aerial-Edge Role-Driven Intelligence at Runtime via Orchestrated Language-Model Swarm	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on July 1?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	Muon as a Residual Connection	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	A Mechanism-Driven Theory of Phase Transitions in Active Learning	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Representation as a Bottleneck for Mechanistic Interpretability: The Manifestation Unit Protocol	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Harnessing the Latent Space: From Steering Vectors to Model Calibrators for Control and Trust	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 4?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Learning to Move Before Learning to Do: Task-Agnostic pretraining for VLAs	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Reasoning effort, not tool access, buys first-try reliability in agentic code generation: an observational study	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	WattGPU: Predicting Inference Power and Latency on Unseen GPUs and LLMs	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.69	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.69	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.69	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.69	Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.69	Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-04-25	IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.69	Which Epoch AI FrontierMath open problem will be solved next?	manifold 2026-04-23	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	9%
0.69	openai revenue miss ripples p 132038121.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.69	big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.69	Will an AI system discover information theory from first principles before 2031?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. Sam Altman	AI	23%
0.69	How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-01	246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	FDA ANDA201452: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ARROW INTL	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.69	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.76.0	github_release 2026-01-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Which Starship Variants will fly before 2032	manifold 2026-05-06	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.69	Will SpaceX launch a rocket in the next 24h?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-06	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.69	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.69	Agentic-imodels: Evolving agentic interpretability tools via autoresearch	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	RLDX-1 Technical Report	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	MAGE: Safeguarding LLM Agents against Long-Horizon Threats via Shadow Memory	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	From Knowledge to Action: Outcomes of the 2025 Large Language Model (LLM) Hackathon for Applications in Materials Science and Chemistry	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Enhancing RL Generalizability in Robotics through SHAP Analysis of Algorithms and Hyperparameters	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Rethinking Reasoning-Intensive Retrieval: Evaluating and Advancing Retrievers in Agentic Search Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	Benchmarking Local Language Models for Social Robots using Edge Devices	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	Accurate Legal Reasoning at Scale: Neuro-Symbolic Offloading and Structural Auditability for Robust Legal Adjudication	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Measuring AI Reasoning: A Guide for Researchers	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Gukesh - Sindarov score in the 2026 World Chess Championship	manifold 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.69	When will global population peak?	manifold 2026-05-06	AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei	AI	16%
0.69	Frontier Lag: A Bibliometric Audit of Capability Misrepresentation in Academic AI Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.69	Position: the Stochastic Parrot in the Coal Mine. Model Collapse is a Threat to Low-Resource Communities	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.0	github_release 2019-02-27	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Litespark Inference on Consumer CPUs: Custom SIMD Kernels for Ternary Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Intentmaking and Sensemaking: Human Interaction with AI-Guided Mathematical Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Invariant Features in Language Models: Geometric Characterization and Model Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Belief Memory: Agent Memory Under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on May 13?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-13	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.69	Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-13	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Twincher: Bijective Representation Learning for Robust Inversion of Continuous Systems	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	A Hardware-Aware, Per-Layer Methodology for Post-Training Quantization of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	BioHuman: Learning Biomechanical Human Representations from Video	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.69	Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the Tasmanian Tiger / Thylacine be confirmed alive by the end of 2030?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-18	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.69	Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-16	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Apple mention Anthropic or Claude in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-17	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Temporal Stability and Few-Shot Prompting in Math Task Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Formalizing Mathematics at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.69	Notation Matters: A Benchmark Study of Token-Optimized Formats in Agentic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.69	Why Larger Models Learn More: Effects of Capacity, Interference, and Rare-Task Retention	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.69	The Complexity of Verifying Feedforward Neural Networks in Quantised Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.69	Harmless Yet Harmful: Neutral Prompting Attacks for Stealthy Hallucination Steering in Agent Skills	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.69	Who Am I? History-Aware Profiles for Student Simulation in Tutoring Dialogues	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.69	Attention Asymmetry in AI Layoff Discourse on X: A Computational Analysis of Capital vs Labour Amplification	arxiv 2026-05-28	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.69	Relevance as a Vulnerability: How Web Retrieval Degrades Safety Alignment in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Extreme dynamic symmetry enables omnidirectional and multifunctional robots	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Extreme dynamic symmetry enables omnidirectional and multifunctional robots	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Who will have the highest sharpe ratio by June 20th 8 PM CEST [ADD ANSWERS] (2026)	manifold 2026-06-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.69	🌭What will happen in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-06-01	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will MNX let people trade Anthropic futures before Anthropic goes public?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-06-02	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	Evolutionary Discovery of Bivariate Bicycle Codes with LLM-Guided Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Self-Revising Discovery Systems for Science: A Categorical Framework for Agentic Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Multi-Agent Computer Use	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Emergent Language as an Approach to Conscious AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.69	Sample-efficient Low-level Motion Planning for Robotic Manipulation Tasks via Zero-shot Transfer Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Do More Agents Help? Controlled and Protocol-Aligned Evaluation of LLM Agent Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Safe Embodied AI for Long-horizon Tasks: A Cross-layer Analysis of Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	EMBER: Efficient Memory via Budgeted Evidence Retention for Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	YouZhi: Towards High-Concurrency Financial LLMs via Adaptive GQA-to-MLA Transition	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	NextMotionQA: Benchmarking and Judging Human Motion Understanding with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Hybrid Adversarial Defence for Natural Language Understanding Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Flash-WAM: Modality-Aware Distillation for World Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	OSCAR: Omni-Embodiment Action-Conditioned World Model for Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Self-evolving LLM agents with in-distribution Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	Predictive Style Matching: Natural and Robust Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.69	From 0-to-1 to 1-to-N: Reproducible Engineering Evidence for MetaAI Recursive Self-Design	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.69	Self-Explainability in Self-Adaptive and Self-Organising Systems: Status and Research Directions	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	Unified Energy for Invariant and Independent Decoding in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	Sustainability and Artificial Intelligence: Necessary, Challenging, and Promising Intersections	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_006 Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	56%
0.69	Sustainability and Artificial Intelligence: Necessary, Challenging, and Promising Intersections	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt	Energy	47%
0.69	SNN-MLIR: An MLIR Dialect for Compiling Neuromorphic SNNs from NIR to Bare-Metal C	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.69	Diffuse AI Control on Fuzzy Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	IR-SIM: A Lightweight Skill-Native Simulator for Navigation, Learning, and Benchmarking	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Harnessing Streaming Video in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	TimpaTeks: Automatic In-place Text Sequence Modification via Diffusion Language Model Steering	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	ABC-Bench: An Agentic Bio-Capabilities Benchmark for Biosecurity	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	T1-Bench: Benchmarking Multi-Scenario Agents in Real-World Domains	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.69	Frontier Coding Agents Use Metaprogramming to Adapt to Unfamiliar Programming Languages	arxiv 2026-06-09	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.69	Harnessing the Collective Intelligence of AI Agents in the Wild for New Discoveries	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.69	LLM-Guided Neural Architecture Search for Robust Co-Design of Physical Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	MemVenom: Triggered Poisoning of Multimodal Memories in Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.69	Few-step Generative Models as Lossy Compression	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	Language-Driven Cost Optimization for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Bridging Semantics and Physical Execution: A Neuro-Symbolic Framework for Multi-Pair Robotic Assembly	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Uncovering Vulnerability of Vision-Language-Action Models under Joint-Level Physical Faults	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the Q2 2026 U.S. gross domestic purchases price index rise at least 3.0% in the advance GDP estimate?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-11	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.69	CHORUS: Decentralized Multi-Embodiment Collaboration with One VLA Policy	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	A Lightweight Multi-Agent Framework for Automated Concrete Barrier Design	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Task-Aware Structured Memory for Dynamic Multi-modal In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Layer-Isolated Evaluation: Gating the Deterministic Scaffold of a Production LLM Agent with a No-LLM, Regression-Locked Test Harness	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.69	EurekAgent: Agent Environment Engineering is All You Need For Autonomous Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-11	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	33%
0.69	ReSET: Accurate Latency-Critical NVFP4 Reasoning via Step-Aware Temperature Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.69	Select and Improve: Understanding the Mechanics of Post-Training for Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	SciR: A Controllable Benchmark for Scientific Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	A Tutorial on World Models and Physical AI	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.69	Smarter Saboteurs, Better Fixers: Scaling & Security in Linear Multi-Agent Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_003 Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.69	Rigel: Reverse-Engineering the Metal 4.1 Tensor Compute Path on the Apple M4 Max GPU	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.69	Multi-Modal Multi-Agent Robotic Cognitive Alignment enabled by Non-Invasive Consumer Brain Computer Interfaces: A Proof of Concept Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	G-MAPP: GPU-accelerated Multi-Agent Planning and Perception for Reactive Motion Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	How do you see the impact of automation and AI on job security in your field this year? Is it a threat or an opportunity	manifold 2026-06-11	241_012 Jobs impact from AI will occur at some point Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-14	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Glosso IPO By 2027?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-15	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	CoffeeBench: Benchmarking Long-Horizon LLM Agents in Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Economies	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.69	SMEPilot: Characterizing and Optimizing LLM Inference with Scalable Matrix Extensions	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.69	Embedded Arena: Iterative Optimization via Hardware Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.69	How to Detect and Measure the AI Dangers to Democracy	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.69	How to Detect and Measure the AI Dangers to Democracy	arxiv 2026-06-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	Green SARC: Predictive Cost and Carbon Governance for Agentic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Neuron Level Analysis of Large Language Model in Legal Domain Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	DataLadder: A Simulation-Enabled Interconversion Toolchain for the Embodied Data Pyramid	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	TopoRetarget: Interaction-Preserving Retargeting for Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will SpaceX have a higher market cap than Amazon at the end of 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-17	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.69	SpaceX stock hits $150 or $250 next?	manifold 2026-06-17	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.69	Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-12	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.69	First Proof Second Batch	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.69	IsabeLLM: Automated Theorem Proving Applied to Formally Verifying Consensus	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Agentic AI-based Framework for Mitigating Premature Diagnostic Handoff and Silent Hallucination in Healthcare Applications	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	LLM Consumer Behavior Theory: Foundations of a Novel Research Field	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	A Neuro-Symbolic Approach to Strategy Synthesis for Strategic Logics	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	LLM-as-Judge in Education: A Curriculum-Grounded Marking Pipeline	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.69	Nothing from Something: Can a Language Model Discover 0?	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.69	Zone of Proximal Policy Optimization: Teacher in Prompts, Not Gradients	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	GeneralVLA-2: Geometry-Aware Reconstruction and Governed Memory for Robot Planning	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Embodiment Shapes Rolling Behavior in a Multimodal Infant Model	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Space Is Intelligence: Neural Semigroup Superposition for Riemannian Metric Generation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Dual-Channel Grounded World Modeling (DCGWM): Structural Prevention of Objective Interference Collapse via Heterogeneous External Grounding with Inward-Only Gradient Flow	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Recover, Discover, Plan: Learning Skills and Concepts from Robot Failures	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	BIM-Edit: Benchmarking Large Language Models for IFC-Based Building Information Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	AI Economist Agent: An Agentic Framework for Model-Grounded Economic Analysis with RAG, Knowledge Graphs, and Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_015 Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — arrival of 'AI CEO' in 2026: autonomous algorithmic systems capable of directing capital and labor so efficiently they accumulate billionaire-level wealth. Open-source AI acts ... Emad Mostaque	Macro/Economy	26%
0.69	Hierarchical Control in Multi-Agent Games: LLM-based Planning and RL Execution	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	Beyond Static Leaderboards: Predictive Validity for the Evaluation of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.69	Deontic Policies for Runtime Governance of Agentic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	Activation- and Influence-Aware Ranks (AIR): Function-Preserving SVD Compression for LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Start Right, Arrive Right: Asynchronous Execution via Initial Noise Selection	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will Anthropic require training-consent for any frontier model by mid-2027?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-21	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.69	Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.69	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-23	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Teaching LLMs String Matching, Backtracking, and Error Recovery to Deduce Bases and Truth Tables for the Combinatorially Exploding Bit Manipulation Puzzles	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Plans Don't Persist: Why Context Management Is Load Bearing for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Intend, Reflect, Refine: An Adaptive Multimodal Reflection Framework for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	QeHDC: Hyperdimensional Computing based on Quantum-enhanced binding and SuperClass Construction	arxiv 2026-06-21	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.69	TEXEDO : Test Time Scaling for Controller-aware Language-conditioned Humanoid Motion Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Self-Evolving Cognitive Framework via Causal World Modeling for Embodied Scientific Intelligence	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	How many successful SpaceX launches in July 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-06-24	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.69	DeepBD: A Grounded Agentic Workflow for Variant Prioritization and Diagnosis of Genetic Birth Defects	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.69	Reinforcement Learning for Computer-Use Agents with Autonomous Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	On the Smallness of the Large Language Models Scaling Exponents	arxiv 2026-06-23	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.69	The Latent Bridge: A Continuous Slow-Fast Channel for Real-Time Game Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Detecting AI Coding Agents in Open Source: A Validated Multi-Method Census of 180 Million Repositories	arxiv 2026-06-23	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.69	Agon: An Autonomous Large-Scale Omnidisciplinary Research System Built on Prompt Economy	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Reasoning as Attractor Dynamics: Latent Memory Retrieval via Gibbs-Weighted Energy Minimization	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Qwen-AgentWorld: Language World Models for General Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	TEXEDO : Test Time Scaling for Controller-aware Language-conditioned Humanoid Motion Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.69	Agentic System as Compressor: Quantifying System Intelligence in Bits	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Heuresis: Search Strategies for Autonomous AI Research Agents Across Quality, Diversity and Novelty	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Neural Scaling Universality: If Exponents Are Fixed, Time to Understand Coefficients	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.69	Closed-Loop Graph Algorithm Execution with Small Language Models: Step Accuracy and Rollout Reliability	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Toward Low-Latency Vision-Language Models with Doubly-Correct Predictions in Egocentric Visual Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	FDA ANDA217678: BINIMETINIB (BINIMETINIB) — ALEMBIC PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.69	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Advancing Omnimodal Embodied Agents from Isolated Skills to Everyday Physical Autonomy	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	Socratic agents for autonomous scientific discovery in high-dimensional physical systems	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	Graph Neural Networks Applications Across Domains: All Insights You Need	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.69	Scalable Message-Passing Quantum Graph Neural Networks in the Weisfeiler-Leman Hierarchy	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Revisiting Action Factorization for Complex Action Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Interpreting "Interpretability" and Explaining "Explainability" in Machine Learning in Physics	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.69	RoboTales: ROBOTic Anthropomorphic LEarning Systems	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Pessimism's Paradox: Conservative Offline Training Amplifies Reward Hacking During Online Adaptation in Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Learning from Mistakes: Rollout-Retrieval Lifelong Policy Learning for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-29	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.69	SpreadsheetBench 2: Evaluating Agents on End-to-End Business Spreadsheet Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.69	Diversity is the Strength of the AI Crowd	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Harvesting AI Computation at the Edge via Generic Approximation	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	Scaling the Horizon, Not the Parameters: Reaching Trillion-Parameter Performance with a 35B Agent	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_030 Eureka Labs vision: 'teacher + AI symbiosis' that scales human expertise infinitely — generating hyper-capable problem-solvers aligned with the space-colonization-workforce demand of the 2030s. Andrej Karpathy	Education	55%
0.69	Are Humans Evolved Instruction Followers? An Underlying Inductive Bias Enables Rapid Instructed Task Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Are Humans Evolved Instruction Followers? An Underlying Inductive Bias Enables Rapid Instructed Task Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	Sequential Planning via Anchored Robotic Keypoints	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.69	Motion Planning in Compressed Representation Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.69	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Language-Critique Imitation Learning from Suboptimal Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Steerability via constraints: a substrate for scalable oversight of coding agents	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Grounded autonomous research: a fault-tolerant LLM pipeline from corpus to manuscript in frontier computational physics	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	ContextNest: Verifiable Context Governance for Autonomous AI Agent	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.69	Mixture-of-Parallelisms: Towards Memory-Efficient Training Stack for Mixture-of-Experts Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Causal Study of AI Coding Agent Adoption in OSS	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_005 AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role. Dario Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on July 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.69	AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.69	When will we see terrorism against AI?	manifold 2026-04-27	246_027 AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.69	Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-25	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.69	2580710	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.69	meta beats estimates but soaring ai spending rattles investors 1091449.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.69	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	☀️What will happen in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-05-01	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.69	How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-01	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	27%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will there be a publicly explicated Scientific Theory of Deep Learning before 2032?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-02	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.69	Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.69	Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.81.0	github_release 2026-02-18	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.69	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	MEMTIER: Tiered Memory Architecture and Retrieval Bottleneck Analysis for Long-Running Autonomous AI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.69	Learning to Theorize the World from Observation	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Geometric Deviation as an Unsupervised Pre-Generation Reliability Signal: Probing LLM Representations for Answerability	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	MolViBench: Evaluating LLMs on Molecular Vibe Coding	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.69	Jiao: Bridging Isolation and Customization in Mixed Criticality Robotics	arxiv 2026-05-05	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.69	FDA ANDA216213: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.69	Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.69	Continual Knowledge Updating in LLM Systems: Learning Through Multi-Timescale Memory Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.69	Superintelligent Retrieval Agent: The Next Frontier of Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	GlazyBench: A Benchmark for Ceramic Glaze Property Prediction and Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	UniSD: Towards a Unified Self-Distillation Framework for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Safactory: A Scalable Agent Factory for Trustworthy Autonomous Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	MANTRA: Synthesizing SMT-Validated Compliance Benchmarks for Tool-Using LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	More Is Not Always Better: Cross-Component Interference in LLM Agent Scaffolding	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.69	Decodable but Not Corrected by Fixed Residual-Stream Linear Steering: Evidence from Medical LLM Failure Regimes	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.69	Continual Knowledge Updating in LLM Systems: Learning Through Multi-Timescale Memory Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Modular Reinforcement Learning For Cooperative Swarms	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-10	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) (CIK 0001780312)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SPC_005 AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided $150M-$200M for 2026) to approximately $1 billion by 2027 — driven by direct-to-cell satellite technology commercialization. Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	56%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-11	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	An Agentic AI Framework with Large Language Models and Chain-of-Thought for UAV-Assisted Logistics Scheduling with Mobile Edge Computing	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_005 Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and global defense infrastructure — future geopolitical supremacy dictated entirely by algorithmic dominance rather than traditional kinetic military assets; autonomous drones, AI-driv... Ben Horowitz	Defense	73%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.69	EnergyLens: Predictive Energy-Aware Exploration for Multi-GPU LLM Inference Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Diagnosing Training Inference Mismatch in LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Nvidia closes at $… in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	ESI-Bench: Towards Embodied Spatial Intelligence that Closes the Perception-Action Loop	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	CoX-MoE: Coalesced Expert Execution for High-Throughput MoE Inference with AMX-Enabled CPU-GPU Co-Execution	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	One Model, Two Roles: Emergent Specialization in a Shared Recurrent Transformer	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	What will be the first one-person company to reach a $1 billion valuation?	manifold 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	ProjectionBench: Evaluating Scientific Hypothesis Generation in LLMs Under Progressive Information Disclosure	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.69	Qwen-VLA: Unifying Vision-Language-Action Modeling across Tasks, Environments, and Robot Embodiments	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Dissociative Identity: Language Model Agents Lack Grounding for Reputation Mechanisms	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Discovering Cooperative Pipelines: Autoresearch for Sequential Social Dilemmas	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Formalizing Mathematics at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.69	Evolve as a Team: Collaborative Self-Evolution for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	VLA-Pro: Cross-Task Procedural Memory Transfer for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	CONCAT: Consensus- and Confidence-Driven Ad Hoc Teaming for Efficient LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	From Blind Guess to Informed Judgment: Teaching LLMs to Evaluate Materials by Building Knowledge-Augmented Preference Signals	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Surfacing Isolated Learners with Outcome-Independent Mediation of Feedback between Teachers and Students Using AI	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.69	A Heterogeneous Architecture for Robot RL Beyond GPU-Dominant Paradigms	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Bitcoin hit $68,000 or $78,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-31	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.69	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.69	Monitoring Agentic Systems Before They're Reliable	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	MCP-Persona: Benchmarking LLM Agents on Real-World Personal Applications via Environment Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	COMAP: Co-Evolving World Models and Agent Policies for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	POIROT: Interrogating Agents for Failure Detection in Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Move the Query, Not the Cache: Characterizing Cross-Instance Latent Attention Redistribution Across GPU Fabrics	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Evaluating Real-World Generalizability of Algorithm Selection Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	BraveGuard: From Open-World Threats to Safer Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-03	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.69	TokenMizer: Graph-Structured Session Memory for Long-Horizon LLM Context Management	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	TLA-Prover: Verifiable TLA+ Specification Synthesis via Preference-Optimized Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%