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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_029 DRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all you can make'. Jensen Huang | Semis/Memory | 74% | |
| 0.60 | Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_039 AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | Will there be 100+ HackerNews stories posted in 24h?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 19% | |
| 0.60 | Will there be 100+ HackerNews stories posted in 24h?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.60 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | |
| 0.60 | Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Chicago A1 have any tiebreak quals at ARML 2026?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.60 | Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | Will an Atlantic hurricane (Category 1+) form before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.60 | US Gas Price $4.250 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Nathan (NotARoomba) say 67 before 8th Jun(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months David Holz | Robotics | 12% | ||
| 0.60 | Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-08 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will I resolve this as yes or no?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 239_025 AI will solve back pain Elon Musk | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.60 | Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | Starmer out before December?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 29% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | Win by betting "yes"(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Elon musk live to see humanity become a Kardashev 3 civilization?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. Elon Musk | Robotics | 16% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-23 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-22 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | ||
| 0.60 | Will this market get 30-60 unique traders by July 16?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.60 | Will anyone finish five chicken bowls in 20 minutes at RSI 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I run further than @draaglom in July?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% or lower before Sep 1st 2026(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will Manifold create an actual Manifold Mobile App before July 2027?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-07-07 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-25 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Will Terminator2 have at least 200 Moltbook followers by 2026-05-18?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-06 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I break a bone before the end of 2027?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | will i get gold at amm 2026(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-08 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.60 | Hentavirus pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 34% |