Validations Queue

114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 48 of 212, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

114,087

Reviewed

Filtered

105,599

page 48 / 212

Showing on page

500

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (114087)arxiv (53983)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3736)fda (5380)gdelt (1218)github_release (3352)manifold (11051)polymarket (35233)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	Neuro-Bayesian-Symbolic Residual Attention Shallow Network: Explainable Deep Learning for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-29	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	ShardNet: Training Neural Controllers with Hard, Non-Convex Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	SGD at the Edge of Stability: Stochastic Stabilization with Large Learning Rates	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Predictable GRPO: A Closed-Form Model of Training Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	ReactionAtlas: Ab origine exploration of chemical reaction networks with machine learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	When will the next Claude Fable be released?	manifold 2026-07-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.65	Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-07-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-30	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	Explainable AI for Cancer Drug Response Prediction: Beyond Univariate Feature Attributions	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	Auditing Forgetting in Limited Memory Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Mapping the Evaluation Frontier: An Empirical Survey of the Bias-Reliability Tradeoff Across Eleven Evaluator-Agent Conditions	arxiv 2026-07-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	A Mechanism-Driven Theory of Phase Transitions in Active Learning	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 4?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 29%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-07-04	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.65	SkillFuzz: Fuzzing Skill Composition for Implicit Intents Discovery in Open Skill Marketplaces	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.65	Generalization in offline RL: The structure is more important than the amount of pessimism	arxiv 2026-07-02	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	Do Newer Lightweight CNNs Perform Better Under Resource Constraints? A Controlled Multigenerational Study of Architecture, Initialization, Training Budget, and Efficiency	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Rank-Then-Act: Reward-Free Control from Frame-Order Progress	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Safety Testing LLM Agents at Scale: From Risk Discovery to Evidence-Grounded Verification	arxiv 2026-07-02	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	33%
0.65	Meta-Benchmarks for Financial-Services LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Reformalization of the Jordan Curve Theorem	arxiv 2026-07-02	239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.65	Model Merging as Probabilistic Inference in Fine-Tuning Parameter Space	arxiv 2026-07-02	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Separating Expert Retention from Autonomous Source Inference in Raw-ECG-Replay-Free Continual ECG Deployment	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Janus: a Playground for User-Involved Agentic Permission Management	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Transformer Geometry Observatory TGO-II: Representational Similarity Observatory	arxiv 2026-07-02	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	A More Accurate Algorithm Comparison through A/B Testing using Offline Evaluation Methods	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Zeus: Towards Tuning-Free Foundation Model for Time Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-07-02	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	DeadPool: Resilient LLM Training with Hot-Swapping via Zero-Overhead Checkpoint	arxiv 2026-07-02	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	64%
0.65	The risk of KV cache compression	arxiv 2026-07-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	When Does Generating More Help? Disentangling Fixed-Source Synthesis from Source Expansion in Synthetic Data Scaling	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	When Does Generating More Help? Disentangling Fixed-Source Synthesis from Source Expansion in Synthetic Data Scaling	arxiv 2026-07-02	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.65	Choreographing the Way of Water: A Computational Framework for Aquatic Robotic Art	arxiv 2026-07-02	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	CoRe: Combined Rewards with Vision-Language Model Feedback for Preference-Aligned Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	A Reconfigurable Rocker-Bogie Robot for High Step Climbing and Turning	arxiv 2026-07-02	229_046 Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 6?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	facebookresearch/nevergrad 1.0.2	github_release 2024-02-20	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.65	facebookresearch/nevergrad 0.8.0	github_release 2023-07-06	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.65	facebookresearch/nevergrad v0.4.0	github_release 2020-03-09	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	28%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 7?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-07-01	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.65	FDA NDA202155: ELIQUIS (APIXABAN) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-06-24	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA204752: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — NOVEL LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 6-12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Detecting Answer-Driven Reasoning in LLM-Based Educational Tutors via Truncated Chain-of-Thought Auditing	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Signal or Noise? Understanding Generative Models for Real-World Sensor Time Series	arxiv 2026-07-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.65	Advances in Neural Controlled Differential Equations	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	SMART: A Machine Learning and Monte Carlo Framework for Rapid Analysis of Stochastic Transistor Aging and Process Variation in Digital Circuits	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Unified convergence analysis for gradient descent optimization methods in the training of deep neural networks	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	ACE: Agentic Control for Embodied Manipulation via Zero-shot Workflow Reasoning	arxiv 2026-07-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	KAM-WM: Kinematic Affordance Maps from Latent World Models for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Integrated Graph Search and Model Predictive Control for Smooth and Efficient Path Planning in Autonomous Vehicles	arxiv 2026-07-05	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	A Century of Group Theory in Particle Physics and Beyond	arxiv 2026-07-06	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	The Large Cancer Assistant (LCA): A Model-Agnostic Orchestration Framework for Scalable Clinical Decision Support in Oncology	arxiv 2026-07-07	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.65	Responsible Personalisation: The Double-Edged Sword of Personalisation in Human-Robot Interaction	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	DT-Guard: Intent-Driven Reasoning-Active Training for Reasoning-Free LLM Safety Guardrail	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	TriA Pipeline: A Large-Scale Automatic Audio Annotation Pipeline For Audio Classification In Specific Scenarios	arxiv 2026-07-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Improving LLM-Generated Process Model Quality Through Reinforcement Learning: The Role of Reward Function Design	arxiv 2026-07-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Property-Driven Synthetic Data Engineering for Data-Scarce Software Systems: Reflections from the Breast Cancer Domain	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Property-Driven Synthetic Data Engineering for Data-Scarce Software Systems: Reflections from the Breast Cancer Domain	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.65	x-Prediction Is All You Need:Training-Free Accelerated Generation via Endpoint Decodability	arxiv 2026-07-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Beyond Accuracy: How Humans Evaluate Legally Correct but Socially Controversial Legal Advice from Machines	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Safe Bayesian Optimization with Counterfactual Policies	arxiv 2026-07-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	PatchOptic for Shared-State LLM Workflows with Projected Views and Verified Structured Updates	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	Modeling Normal Is All You Need: Joint Latent Clustering for Anomaly Detection in Multimodal Cyber-Physical Systems	arxiv 2026-07-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	SplineNet: An Isogeometric Deep Learning Method for Complex Shells	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Drift Happens: An Empirical Study of Neural Architecture Robustness to Temporal Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-07-07	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.65	No Subspace to Track: Non-Identifiability and Optimizer State in Low-Rank Training	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Two Sides of the Same Coin: Learning the Backdoor to Remove the Backdoor	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.65	Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Battery Management of Autonomous Order Pickers	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_020 The 'Factory-is-the-Product' model will dominate venture-backed manufacturing — the manufacturing process itself becomes a continuous AI-optimized technological product, not merely a site of assembly. a16z predicts AI's 'insatiable need for power' requ... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	43%
0.65	SHARC: SHAP-Based Interpretability in Machine Learning Risk Models for Regulatory Capital under ICAAP and CCAR	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	SMART: A Machine Learning and Monte Carlo Framework for Rapid Analysis of Stochastic Transistor Aging and Process Variation in Digital Circuits	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Why does Deep Learning Improve Visual SLAM?	arxiv 2026-07-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	DexTele: A Dual-Arm Dexterous Teleoperation System Based on Motion Retargeting and Adaptive Force Control	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	FDA ANDA040656: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	How much VRAM will NVIDIA 6090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have?	manifold 2026-04-27	240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.65	Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-04-24	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	elon musk attorney claims openai sam altman stole charity high stakes legal fight begins	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	39%
0.65	elon musk attorney claims openai sam altman stole charity high stakes legal fight begins	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	39%
0.65	google ai deal pentagon.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	235_044 AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.65	dow s p 500 slip as fed holds rates eyes turn to mega cap earnings 1091413.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	20260429001332	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	37%
0.65	big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.65	MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.65	Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-01	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-01	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 3?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.65	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.65	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.65	FDA ANDA213885: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA219271: CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE (CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE) — HETERO LABS LIMITED	fda 2026-04-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.91.0	github_release 2026-04-07	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc2	github_release 2026-01-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.65	Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-05	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	The Counterexample Game: Iterated Conceptual Analysis and Repair in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	MCJudgeBench: A Benchmark for Constraint-Level Judge Evaluation in Multi-Constraint Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	AI Advocate: Educational Path to Transform Squads to the Future	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_041 K-12 education will be rebuilt from first principles using AI systems — institutions like Alpha School shifting from rote white-collar training toward systems-thinking, AI-human symbiosis, and management of intelligence platforms. Joe Liemandt / MacKenzie Price	Education	59%
0.65	DALPHIN: Benchmarking Digital Pathology AI Copilots Against Pathologists on an Open Multicentric Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	MHPR: Multidimensional Human Perception and Reasoning Benchmark for Large Vision-Languate Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	LLM-ADAM: A Generalizable LLM Agent Framework for Pre-Print Anomaly Detection in Additive Manufacturing	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	Revisiting the Travel Planning Capabilities of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	When Audio-Language Models Fail to Leverage Multimodal Context for Dysarthric Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	ORPilot: A Production-Oriented Agentic LLM-for-OR Tool for Optimization Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Leveraging Code Automorphisms for Improved Syndrome-Based Neural Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	CARD: Coarse-to-fine Autoregressive Modeling with Radix-based Decomposition for Transferable Free Energy Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Recurrent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Chemotherapy Control under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	Beyond Specialization: Robust Reinforcement Learning Navigation via Procedural Map Generators	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Learning Reactive Dexterous Grasping via Hierarchical Task-Space RL Planning and Joint-Space QP Control	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Semantic Risk-Aware Heuristic Planning for Robotic Navigation in Dynamic Environments: An LLM-Inspired Approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Feedback Motion Planning for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with Signal Temporal Logic Specifications	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Comment on `On computing quantum waves exactly from classical action'	arxiv 2026-05-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.65	FDA ANDA213267: THALIDOMIDE (THALIDOMIDE) — NATCO	fda 2026-04-24	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_008 Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	MRI-Eval: A Tiered Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Performance on MRI Physics and GE Scanner Operations Knowledge	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.65	MRI-Eval: A Tiered Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Performance on MRI Physics and GE Scanner Operations Knowledge	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Awaking Spatial Intelligence in Unified Multimodal Understanding and Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.65	FDA ANDA091541: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-04-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.36.0	github_release 2026-05-07	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	UniPool: A Globally Shared Expert Pool for Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	NeuroAgent: LLM Agents for Multimodal Neuroimaging Analysis and Research	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.65	Coordination Matters: Evaluation of Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	SCRuB: Social Concept Reasoning under Rubric-Based Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Asymmetric On-Policy Distillation: Bridging Exploitation and Imitation at the Token Level	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Topological Signatures of Grokking	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Is Escalation Worth It? A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of LLM Cascades	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	Shallow Prefill, Deep Decoding: Efficient Long-Context Inference via Layer-Asymmetric KV Visibility	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Beyond Autoregressive RTG: Conditioning via Injection Outside Sequential Modeling in Decision Transformer	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Does Synthetic Data Help? Empirical Evidence from Deep Learning Time Series Forecasters	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	PersonaKit (PK): A Plug-and-Play Platform for User Testing Diverse Roles in Full-Duplex Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	HaM-World: Soft-Hamiltonian World Models with Selective Memory for Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Optimizing Social Utility in Sequential Experiments	arxiv 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.65	Hitting Time Isomorphism for Multi-Stage Planning with Foundation Policies	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	LINC: Decoupling Local Consequence Scoring from Hidden Matching in Constructive Neural Routing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Bridging visual saliency and large language models for explainable deep learning in medical imaging	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PoTAcc: A Pipeline for End-to-End Acceleration of Power-of-Two Quantized DNNs	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.65	Training Transformers for KV Cache Compressibility	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	BALAR : A Bayesian Agentic Loop for Active Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Counterargument for Critical Thinking as Judged by AI and Humans	arxiv 2026-05-06	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.65	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Plug-and-Play Label Map Diffusion for Universal Goal-Oriented Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Track A*: Fast Visibility-Aware Trajectory Planning for Active Target Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.65	Dream-MPC: Gradient-Based Model Predictive Control with Latent Imagination	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	FDA ANDA213929: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — LEADING	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-11	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	FDA NDA021488: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	When will the Jai programming language be public?	manifold 2026-05-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Towards Affordable Energy: A Gymnasium Environment for Electric Utility Demand-Response Programs	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.65	Predicting Decisions of AI Agents from Limited Interaction through Text-Tabular Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.65	Neural-Schwarz Tiling for Geometry-Universal PDE Solving at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	In-context learning to predict critical transitions in dynamical systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Pretraining Strategies and Scaling for ECG Foundation Models: A Systematic Study	arxiv 2026-05-12	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Intrinsic Vicarious Conditioning for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	On What We Can Learn from Low-Resolution Data	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	42%
0.65	Entropy Polarity in Reinforcement Fine-Tuning: Direction, Asymmetry, and Control	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Anti-Self-Distillation for Reasoning RL via Pointwise Mutual Information	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	19%
0.65	Attention Once Is All You Need: Efficient Streaming Inference with Stateful Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Dense vs Sparse Pretraining at Tiny Scale: Active-Parameter vs Total-Parameter Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Humanwashing -- It Should Leave You Feeling Dirty	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Three-Stage Learning Unlocks Strong Performance in Simple Models for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Q-Flow: Stable and Expressive Reinforcement Learning with Flow-Based Policy	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Trajectory-Level Data Augmentation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Trajectory-Level Data Augmentation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Trajectory-Level Data Augmentation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Differentiable Learning of Lifted Action Schemas for Classical Planning	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FDA BLA761032: SILIQ (BRODALUMAB) — VALEANT LUXEMBOURG	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-10-15	234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.65	An Interpretable Latency Model for Speculative Decoding in LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Not All Symbols Are Equal: Importance-Aware Constellation Design for Semantic Communication	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	Real-time virtual circuits for plasma shape control via neural network emulators	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	LiSA: Lifelong Safety Adaptation via Conservative Policy Induction	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Data-Augmented Game Starts for Accelerating Self-Play Exploration in Imperfect Information Games	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	ICED: Concept-level Machine Unlearning via Interpretable Concept Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	GenCircuit-RL: Reinforcement Learning from Hierarchical Verification for Genetic Circuit Design	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning for Tool-Calling Agents in Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR)	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	FDA BLA761304: VYVGART HYTRULO (EFGARTIGIMOD ALFA AND HYALURONIDASE-QVFC) — ARGENX BV	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA BLA761381: OPDIVO QVANTIG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	How many companies with a $5T+ market cap at end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	22%
0.65	FDA ANDA200880: ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM (ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM) — MYLAN ASI	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Price of July 2026 onion futures as of end of June?	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-19	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.65	Scheduling That Speaks: An Interpretable Programmatic Reinforcement Learning Framework	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Text2CAD-Bench: A Benchmark for LLM-based Text-to-Parametric CAD Generation	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.65	Generative Adversarial Learning from Deterministic Processes	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	A Simplex Witness Certificate for Constant Collapse in Variational Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?	arxiv 2026-05-18	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	Equilibrium Selection in Multi-Agent Policy Gradients via Opponent-Aware Basin Entry	arxiv 2026-05-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	AdaptiveLoad: Towards Efficient Video Diffusion Transformer Training	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Revisiting the Adam-SGD Gap in LLM Pre-Training: The Role of Large Effective Learning Rates	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	StatQAT: Statistical Quantizer Optimization for Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	On Gaussian approximation for entropy-regularized Q-learning with function approximation	arxiv 2026-05-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	22%
0.65	OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	Will the United States unemployment rate exceed 30% any time before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-24	IND_004 True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... Andrej Karpathy	AI	43%
0.65	Token-Level Generalization in LoRA Adapter Backdoors: Attack Characterization and Behavioral Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.65	Token Inflation: How Dishonest Providers Can Overcharge for Large Language Model Usage	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	Cookie-Bench: Continuous On-screen Key Interaction Evaluation for Web Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Teaching Language Models to Check Grounded Claim Factuality with Human Test-Taking Strategies	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	BitTP: The Lightweight Trajectory Prediction Model with BitLLM for Edge-Devices	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	DeepTool: Scaling Interleaved Deliberation in Tool-Integrated Reasoning via Process-Supervised Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Temporal Motif-aware Graph Test-time Adaptation for OOD Blockchain Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Dissecting the Black Box: Circuit-Level Analysis of LLM Vulnerability Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Dissecting the Black Box: Circuit-Level Analysis of LLM Vulnerability Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	MIRAGE: Adaptive Multimodal Gating for Whole-Brain fMRI Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	When Do Graph Foundation Models Transfer? A Data-Centric Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Cluster-Level Attention-Guided Parallel Decoding for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	AsymVLM: Asymmetric Token Pruning for Efficient Vision-Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DenseSteer: Steering Small Language Models towards Dense Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	World Models in Words: Auditing Physical State-Transition Commitments in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	LiteCoder-Terminal: Scaling Long-Horizon Terminal Environments for Learning Language Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Revisiting Observation Reduction for Web Agents: Comprehensive Evaluation with a Lightweight Framework	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Replicable Simulation-Based Robot Validation through Provenance	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	DGSG-Mind: Dynamic 3D Gaussian Scene Graphs for Long-Term Scene Understanding and Grounding	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	LLM-Guided Future Hypotheses for Horizon-Aware Exploration in Multi-Step Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	MARS Policy: Multimodality Only When It Matters	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	FLIP: Real-Time and Resilient Formation Planning for Large-Scale DIstributed Swarms via Point Cloud Registration	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	VE2VF: Vision-Enabled to Vision-Free Distillation via Real-world Reinforcement Learning for Robust Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Distributed Non-Uniform Scaling Control of Multi-Agent Formation with Dynamic Agent Joining	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Who will be the next Democratic candidate for 2028?	manifold 2026-05-31	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.65	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.65	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.65	Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-01	231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	58%
0.65	▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-06-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA217497: TRETINOIN (TRETINOIN) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Bridging the Last Mile of Time Series Forecasting with LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Bridging the Last Mile of Time Series Forecasting with LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.65	PaSBench-Video: A Streaming Video Benchmark for Proactive Safety Warning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	CEON: Circular Economy Ontology Network	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	Order within Chaos: Capturing Intrinsic Energy Anomalies for AI-Manipulated Image Forgery Localization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Network Distributed Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Consensus Control of Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Large Pretrained Models for Instance Segmentation Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	SMH-Bench: Benchmarking LLM Agents for Environment-Grounded Reasoning and Action in Smart Homes	arxiv 2026-06-01	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	Collaborative Space Object Detection with Multi-Satellite Viewpoints in LEO Constellations	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.65	Revisiting Ripple Effects in Knowledge Editing through Pressure-Aware Joint Neighborhood Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Move the Query, Not the Cache: Characterizing Cross-Instance Latent Attention Redistribution Across GPU Fabrics	arxiv 2026-05-31	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	BlockGen: Flexible Blockwise Sequence Modeling with Hybrid Samplers	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.65	Task-Induced Representational Invariances Depend on Learning Objective in Deep RL	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Observation, Not Prediction: Conversation-Level Disaggregated Scheduling for Agentic Serving	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	KDH-CAD: Knowledge-data hybrid CAD learning under data scarcity	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.65	RDA: Reward Design Agent for Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	CRePE: Convolution-aware Relative Importance in Post-training Pruning with Efficient Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Rethinking the Role of Positional Encoding: Sliding-Window Transformers without PE Remain Turing Complete	arxiv 2026-06-01	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Semantic Retrieval for Product Search in E-Commerce	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	DFlare: Scaling Up Draft Capacity for Block Diffusion Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	MENTIS: What Belief Changes Under Alignment? Measuring Multi-Scale Latent Torsion in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Relational Intervention During Functional Collapse in Large Language Models: A Lexical-Statistical Ablation and a Structure x Register Factorial	arxiv 2026-05-31	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Relational Intervention During Functional Collapse in Large Language Models: A Lexical-Statistical Ablation and a Structure x Register Factorial	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	FDA ANDA077420: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — RISING	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-03	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.65	FDA ANDA220043: VORICONAZOLE (VORICONAZOLE) — HAINAN POLY PHARM	fda 2026-05-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-04	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	RiskFlow: Fast and Faithful Safety-Critical Traffic Scenario Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	DisasterBench: A Multimodal Benchmark for UAV-Based Disaster Response in Complex Environments	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	WorldFly: A World-Model-Based Vision-Language-Action Model for UAV Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.65	Step-adaptive multimodal fusion network with multi-scale cloud feature learning for ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	Integrating Mechanistic and Data-Driven Models for Neurological Disorders through Differentiable Programming	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.65	A Framework for Measuring Appropriate Reliance on Set-Valued AI Advice	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	A Framework for Measuring Appropriate Reliance on Set-Valued AI Advice	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	From Risk Classification to Action Plan Remediation: A Guardrail Feedback Driven Framework for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	TinyML-Driven Cybersecurity for Autonomous Spacecraft: Latency-Accuracy Analysis for SPARTA RF and Cyber Threat Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.65	Data Flow Control: Data Safety Policies for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Self-Commitment Latency: A Reward-Free Probe for Prompted Implicit Hacking	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	Dead Directions: Geometric Singular Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Short paper: Models in the dark -- Rectification and erasure under GDPR in ML supply chains	arxiv 2026-06-04	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.65	LEVANTE-bench: Multi-Scale Comparison of VLMs to Children Using Cognitive Tasks (or, "Is Your VLM Smarter Than a 5th Grader?")	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Human Adults and LLMs as Scientists: Who Benefits from Active Exploration?	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Large Language Models are Perplexed by some Political Parties	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DAR: Deontic Reasoning with Agentic Harnesses	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	SAID: Accelerating Diffusion-Based Language Models via Scaffold-Aware Iterative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	'Your AI Text is not Mine': Redefining and Evaluating AI-generated Text Detection under Realistic Assumptions	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	PersonaTree: Structured Lifecycle Memory for Person Understanding in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	LifeSide: Benchmarking Agents as Lifelong Digital Companions	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Synthetic Data Generation and Vision-based Wrinkle and Keypoint Detection for Bimanual Cloth Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Towards Realistic 3D Sonar Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	T-FunS3D: Task-Driven Hierarchical Open-Vocabulary 3D Functionality Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Dynamic Multi-Agent Pickup and Delivery in Robotic Cellular Warehousing Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	Learning Contact Representation for Leg Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	GRAIL: Generating Humanoid Loco-Manipulation from 3D Assets and Video Priors	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	MAD: Mapping-Aware World Models for Agile Quadrotor Flight	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.106.0	github_release 2026-06-05	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.2	github_release 2022-03-15	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Planning-aligned Token Compression for Long-Context Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Socratic-SWE: Self-Evolving Coding Agents via Trace-Derived Agent Skills	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	TOPSIS-RAD: Ranking According to Desires	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	DEFINED: A Data-Efficient Computational Framework for Fine-Grained Creativity Assessment in Debate Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Teaching the Way, Not the Answer: Privileged Tutoring Distillation for Multimodal Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Don't Pause: Streaming Video-Language Synchrony for Online Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.65	Time series Foundation Models based on Physics-Informed Synthetic Histories for Cold-Start Photovoltaic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_010 Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 2026-2031+; precipitous decline drives solar to ~1/3 of all global electricity generation. Wright's Law mathematical certainty applied to silicon PV + lithium-ion storage + elect... Ramez Naam	Energy	70%
0.65	Accelerating Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimisation via Predictive-Gradient Catalysts	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	mmPISA-bench: Do LLMs Reason Equally Well Across 43 Languages?	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Are Large Language Models Suitable for Graph Computation? Progress and Prospects	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Are Large Language Models Suitable for Graph Computation? Progress and Prospects	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Will the NASDAQ crash before Aug 30, 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	An Agency-Transferring Model-Free Policy Enhancement Technique	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Proxy Reward Internalization and Mechanistic Exploitation: A Learned Precursor to Reward Hacking and Its Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.65	FMplex: Model Virtualization for Serving Extensible Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Safe-RULE: Safe Reinforcement UnLEarning	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	Emergence of Context Characteristics Sensitivity in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Culturally-Adapted Red-Teaming Across East and Southeast Asian Contexts: A Methodological and Comparative Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	sGPO: Trading Inference FLOPs for Training Efficiency in RLVR	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Beyond Pass Rate: A Multilingual, Execution-Grounded Evaluation of Open Code LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	61%
0.65	Evaluating AI Investment Strategies	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	BrainSurgery: Reproducible and Reliable Declarative Weight Manipulations for Model Editing and Upcycling	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Toward Compiler World Models: Learning Latent Dynamics for Efficient Tensor Program Search	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Declarative Outcome-Conformant Synthesis: Exact, Closed-Form Specification Satisfaction and a Conformance Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Lost in the Non-convex Loss Landscape: How to Fine-tune the Large Time Series Model?	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	A Theoretical Analysis of Memory and Overfitting Phenomena in Stochastic Interpolation Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	IS-CoT: Breaking the Long-form Generation Collapse via Interleaved Structural Thinking	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	UXBench: Benchmarking User Experience in AI Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.65	Detecting Differences Is Not Understanding Structure: Large Language Models Fail at Graph Isomorphism	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	One Model, Multiple Goals: Adaptive Multi-Objective Learning for E-commerce Dialogue Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	iMaC: Translating Actions into Motion and Contact Images for Embodied World Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Modeling Components and Connections in Cyber-Physical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Efficient Minimal Solvers for Relative Pose Estimation in Autonomous Driving Applications	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	ActProbe: Action-Space Probe for Early Failure Detection of Generative Robot Policies	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Designed by Journalists, but Is It for Readers? Rethinking AI Disclosures and Transparency in News	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	PhantomBench: Benchmarking the Non-existential Threat of Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.65	Test-Time Gradient Guidance of Flow Policies in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Test-Time Gradient Guidance of Flow Policies in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Evaluating Research-Level Math Proofs via Strict Step-Level Verification	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	NOVA: Symbolic Regression Discovery of Interpretable Car-Following and Lane-Change Models with Driver Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	Achieving Cloud-Grade SLOs for Local Mixture-of-Experts Inference through CPU-GPU Hybrid Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	Beyond Static Evaluation: Co-Evolutionary Mechanisms for LLM-Driven Strategy Evolution in Adversarial Games	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Self-Distillation Policy Optimization via Visual Feedback: Bridging Code and Visual Artifacts	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Less Context, Better Agents: Efficient Context Engineering for Long-Horizon Tool-Using LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.65	Exploration of Foundation Model-Based Robots in Patient and Elderly Care	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.65	$τ$-Rec: A Verifiable Benchmark for Agentic Recommender Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Limitations of Learning Tanh Neural Networks with Finite Precision	arxiv 2026-06-09	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.65	Flow-DPPO: Divergence Proximal Policy Optimization for Flow Matching Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Conservation Laws from Data Symmetry in Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Geometry-Aware Reinforcement Learning for 2D Irregular Nesting	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Toward Proactive RF Charging Scheduling: Generative AI for Decision Support	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.65	Rank Collapse, Fixed Points, and the Renormalization Group Structure of MLP Residual Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.65	Discovering Interpretable Multi-Parameter Control Policies for Evolutionary Algorithms Using Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	The Shibboleth Effect: Auditing the Cross-Lingual Distributional Skew of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	Who Brought Easter Eggs to Eid? Auditing Cultural Translation of Math Word Problems Across Diverse Languages and Regions	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	WebChallenger: A Reliable and Efficient Generalist Web Agent	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	KCSAT-ML: Probing Reasoning Models with Nationwide-Cohort Human Difficulty	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.65	Selection, Not Salience: The Shape and Limits of Personalization in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-09	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	32%
0.65	UXBench: Benchmarking User Experience in AI Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning Disrupts Gradient-Based Adversarial Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	LUCID: Learning Embodiment-Agnostic Intent Models from Unstructured Human Videos for Scalable Dexterous Robot Skill Acquisition	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	APEX: Automated Prompt Engineering eXpert with Dynamic Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.65	Forecasting Future Behavior as a Learning Task	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Critic Architecture Matters: Dual vs. Unified Critics for Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_025 Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.65	RLCSD: Reinforcement Learning with Contrastive On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Adaptive Multi-Resolution Procedural Knowledge Compression for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Notes2Skills: From Lab Notebooks to Certainty-Aware Scientific Agent Skills	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	External Experience Serving in Production LLM Systems: A Deployment-Oriented Study of Quality-Cost Trade-offs	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.65	VLGA: Vision-Language-Geometry-Action Models for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Semantically-Aware Diver Activity Recognition Framework for Effective Underwater Multi-Human-Robot Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	APT: Action Expert Pretraining Improves Instruction Generalization of Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-12	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.65	Beyond the Commitment Boundary: Probing Epiphenomenal Chain-of-Thought in Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Reward Modeling for Multi-Agent Orchestration	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Evaluation Sovereignty in Metadata-Driven Classification: A Multi-Track Framework for Weakly Supervised Information Systems	arxiv 2026-06-11	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.65	From Verdict to Process: Agentic Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Stage Fact Verification	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Humor Style Drives Laughter, Topic Shapes Acceptability: Evaluating Bilingual Personal and Political Robot-Delivered AI Jokes	arxiv 2026-06-11	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.65	ARMOR-MAD: Adaptive Routing for Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Debate in Large Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	"Is This Not Enough?": Asymmetries in Institutional Accountability and Collective Sensemaking in the Case of Canada's Algorithmic Visa Triage System	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_006 Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	56%
0.65	Augmentation techniques for video surveillance in the visible and thermal spectral range	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_039 Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.65	Fault Lines: Navigating Ethics and Responsible AI Where National Policy Meets Local Practice in Public Sector Transformation	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.65	Emerging Flexible Designs for Geospatial Multimodal Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.65	Pythagoras-Prover: Advancing Efficient Formal Proving via Augmented Lean Formalisation	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	MaskWAM: Unifying Mask Prompting and Prediction for World-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Getting Better at Working With You: Compiling User Corrections into Runtime Enforcement for Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.65	Demystifying Hidden-State Recurrence: Switchable Latent Reasoning with On-Policy Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	A solvable model for unsupervised federated learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Self-Guidance: Enhancing Neural Codecs via Decoder Manifold Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Where Computation Lives Inside TabPFN: Causal Localisation of Attention Head Function	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Individual Control Barrier Functions-Guided Diffusion Model for Safe Offline Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	PRISM: Prosody-Integrated Multi-Agent Reasoning Framework for Empathetic Spoken Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.65	Identifiability Without Gaussianity: Symbolic World Models and Near-Infinite Temporal Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Embedding ISO 10218 Safety Compliance in Robots via Control Barrier Functions for Human-Robot Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Redesigning Regularization for Effective Policy Smoothing	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Action-Effect Memory Pretraining for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	$μ$VLA: On Recurrent Memory for Partially Observable Manipulation in VLA Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	FDA ANDA215552: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — YAOPHARMA CO LTD	fda 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	FDA BLA761306: EBGLYSS (LEBRIKIZUMAB-LBKZ) — ELI LILLY AND CO	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-13	241_060 Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers Peter Diamandis	Space	54%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-15	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least until the end of 2030?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-16	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.65	Bayesian Inference and Decision Audits for Public Archives of Frontier AI Evaluations	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	When in Doubt, Plan It Out: Committed Small Language Model Deliberation for Reactive Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	ATOM-Bench: A Real-World Benchmark for Atomic Skills and Compositional Generalization in Manipulation Policies	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	AgentFairBench: Do LLM Agents Discriminate When They Act?	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PATCH: Action-Chunk-Conditioned Latent Patch Innovation Monitoring for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PATCH: Action-Chunk-Conditioned Latent Patch Innovation Monitoring for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	TNODEV: Toolbox for Neural ODE Verification	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	The Faithfulness Gap: Certifying Semantic Equivalence Between Natural-Language and Formal Mathematical Statements	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Phase-Aware Guidance Injection for Recurrent MAPPO in Assembly-Line Disruption Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	FlowMPC: Improving Flow Matching policies with World Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	AuAu: A Benchmark for Auditing Authoritarian Alignment in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	AuAu: A Benchmark for Auditing Authoritarian Alignment in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Open-SWE-Traces: Advancing Dual-Mode Multilingual Distillation for Software Engineering Agents	arxiv 2026-06-14	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.65	UrbanWell: Benchmarking Multimodal Large Language Models for Spatio-Temporal Urban Wellbeing Analytics	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	ExpRL: Exploratory RL for LLM Mid-Training	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Mixtures of Subspaces for Bandwidth Efficient Context Parallel Training	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	CacheMuon: Using Temporal Preconditioning To Approximate Polar Factor	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	PromptShift-CRC: Drift-Aware Conformal Risk Control for Foundation Models Under Prompt and Domain Shift	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Can LLM Coding Agents Reason About Time Series?	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Focus When Necessary: Adaptive Routing and Collaborative Grounding for Training-Free Visual Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Interactor: Agentic RL oriented Iterative Creation for Ad Description Generation in Sponsored Search	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	SciOrch: Learning to Orchestrate Expert LLMs for Solving Frontier Multimodal Scientific Reasoning Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Re-feeding Is Not Replaying: Measuring Replay Noise in Counterfactual Token-Credit Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Emergent retokenization symmetry in large language models: phenomenology and applications	arxiv 2026-06-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	HATS: A Human-Agent Teleoperation System for Multi-Arm Data Collection	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning-Guided Retrieval with Soft Fusion for Robust Multimodal Imitation Learning under Missing Modalities	arxiv 2026-06-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	EvolveNav: Proactive Preflection and Self-Evolving Memory for Zero-Shot Object Goal Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	WEQA: Wearable hEalth Question Answering with Query-Adaptive Agentic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	When English Isn't the Best Teacher: Source Language Effects in Cross-Lingual In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Confusion-Aware Transfer Teacher Curriculum Learning Framework: Disentangling Scoring and Pacing Effects	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	FllumaOne: A Code-Native Multimodal CAD Dataset with Executable Programs and Kernel-Validated Feature Histories	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	FinAcumen: Financial Multimodal Reasoning via Self-Evolving Experience Memory Harness	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Translating the Untranslatable: An Operationalizable Ontology for Untranslatability	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Statistical Foundations of LLM-based A/B Testing: A Surrogacy Framework for Human Causal Inference	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	PromptMN: Pseudo Prompting Language	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.65	ReRAM-aware Model Finetuning addressing I-V Non-linearity and Retention Errors	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	ProCUA-SFT Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Verified Detection and Prevention of Concurrency Anomalies in Multi-Agent Large Language Model Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Variable-Width Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.65	Improving low-resource ASR using bilingual fine-tuning with language identification: a cross-linguistic evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Evaluating Large Language Models Abilities for Addressee, Turn-change, and Next Speaker Prediction in Meetings	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Data Intelligence Agents: Interpreting, Modeling, and Querying Enterprise Data via Autonomous Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Essential Subspace Merging for Multi-Task Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%