Validations Queue

111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 34 of 207, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.66arxiv
2026-05-14
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-14
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-14
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-11
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-12
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66manifold
2026-05-15
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-14
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-14
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-14
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66manifold
2026-05-18
S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y
No major AI pause through 2031
ai_regulatory_pause75%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-13
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-13
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-19
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-03-24
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-18
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-18
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-18
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-18
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-18
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-18
TK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-18
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-18
SEM_039
Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.
Jack Dorsey
Semis/ASICs83%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-23
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66polymarket
2026-04-16
SEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets68%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-26
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66polymarket
2026-03-24
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-03-24
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-23
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-23
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-23
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66manifold
2026-05-28
238_012
OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes
Kevin Weil
AI38%
0.66manifold
2026-05-25
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
CYB_013
The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou...
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks52%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
INF_030
By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive to Fortune 500 firms — granting small businesses access to tools rivaling those of large enterprises.
Dario Amodei
AI82%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
AI_029
Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer.
Morgan Stanley
AI57%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
229_044
Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.
Brett Adcock
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-28
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66
FDA BLA761111: NYVEPRIA (PEGFILGRASTIM-APGF) — HOSPIRA INC
fda
2026-05-21
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.66github_release
2026-05-22
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-23
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-26
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.66polymarket
2026-03-24
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-03-24
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-28
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-25
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-26
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-25
235_011
PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.
Salim Ismail
Markets/Stocks47%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-23
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-23
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-27
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-26
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66manifold
2026-06-01
236_008
First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks53%
0.66
FDA NDA213756: KOSELUGO (SELUMETINIB SULFATE) — ASTRAZENECA
fda
2026-05-26
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-26
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2025-10-10
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
237_029
AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience.
Dave Blundin
AI47%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
233_014
Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.
Dave Blundin
Biotech/Longevity32%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
AUT_003
'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch...
Andrej Karpathy
AI87%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-31
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-31
234_050
Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-01
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-31
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-05-31
232_044
There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-26
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-26
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-28
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-28
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66manifold
2026-06-03
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-29
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-04
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-04
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-01
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66
FDA ANDA081099: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — BARR
fda
2026-05-27
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-01
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-02
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-05
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-05
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66manifold
2026-06-05
S_IPO_TRILLION_2027
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
ipo_trillion_plus40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
SEM_049
AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Software56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CYB_011
Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev...
Alex Finn
Consumer44%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_043
In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically.
Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel
AI/Compute92%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CYB_022
Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI76%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
248_022
Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks42%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CYB_005
'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio...
Ray Kurzweil
AI30%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
240_033
AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks
Salim Ismail
AI42%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
CMQ_043
In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically.
Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel
AI/Compute92%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
CYB_005
'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio...
Ray Kurzweil
AI30%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-04
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-03
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66
FDA NDA212927: TIOCYSTIN (TIOPRONIN) — CASPER PHARMA LLC
fda
2026-06-02
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-31
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-30
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-06
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-05-31
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-01
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-04
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-01
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-04
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-04
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-03
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-05
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-05
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-05
240_013
Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs
Sam Altman
AI41%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-05
FUT_004
Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten...
Amy Webb
AI62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-05
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-05
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-02
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-06
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-08
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2025-12-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-06
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-02
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
238_025
AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level
Emad Mostaque
AI45%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
SPC_025
Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI64%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
FUT_020
Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Labor/Jobs45%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
242_059
Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages
Dave Blundin
Auto/Transport45%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-07
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
242_043
AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-07
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-07
CYB_019
Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o...
Demis Hassabis
Robotics44%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-07
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-07
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
FUT_020
Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Labor/Jobs45%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
230_029
Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
CYB_011
Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev...
Alex Finn
Consumer44%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
AI_029
Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer.
Morgan Stanley
AI57%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-07
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-07
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-07
AUT_008
Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur...
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport76%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-02
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-02
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-04
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-02
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-10
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CMQ_055
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
Brett Adcock
Robotics29%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
SPC_016
AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human...
Ben Lamm
Space72%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
SEM_033
AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Physics56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
AI_015
Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers.
Emad Mostaque
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
INF_036
AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin...
Dara Khosrowshahi
AI61%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CYB_020
Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency.
Gwynne Shotwell
Space65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CYB_023
Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de...
Michael Saylor
Crypto26%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
SPC_025
Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI64%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-08
232_050
Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.66github_release
2022-08-22
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-08
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-05
230_005
Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
237_029
AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience.
Dave Blundin
AI47%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-09
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-06
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
CYB_023
Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de...
Michael Saylor
Crypto26%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
CMQ_005
AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role.
Dario Amodei
AI56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
CMQ_044
Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-10
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-11
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-06
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-13
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-13
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-06
246_011
Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.
Dave Blundin
AI42%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-13
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66manifold
2026-06-13
CYB_029
Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,...
Anthropic
AI80%
0.66manifold
2026-06-11
234_046
AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans
Dave Blundin
AI47%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-08
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66github_release
2026-06-13
INF_001
Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-11
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-10
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
INF_072
There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently.
Demis Hassabis
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
SEM_049
AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Software56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_031
AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Compute42%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CYB_013
The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou...
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks52%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
229_028
Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.
Brett Adcock
Robotics69%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
229_042
Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task.
Brett Adcock
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-14
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-11
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-09
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
AI_010
The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'.
Andrej Karpathy
AI90%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
230_029
Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
240_013
Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs
Sam Altman
AI41%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
240_013
Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs
Sam Altman
AI41%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
CMQ_055
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
Brett Adcock
Robotics29%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
CMQ_055
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
Brett Adcock
Robotics29%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
AI_036
Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell...
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI49%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
IND_001
Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle...
Alex Finn
Labor/Jobs48%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
CYB_003
Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI...
Alex Finn
AI55%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-16
CMQ_009
Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity.
Demis Hassabis
AI60%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030
Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030
robotaxi_deployment30%
0.66github_release
2026-06-18
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-13
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66manifold
2026-06-18
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
CYB_005
'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio...
Ray Kurzweil
AI30%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-17
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-18
SPC_025
Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI64%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-13
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-16
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-13
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-18
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-18
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-13
246_011
Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.
Dave Blundin
AI42%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-16
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66manifold
2026-06-22
SPC_025
Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI64%
0.66manifold
2026-06-19
AUT_007
2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll...
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy13%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-16
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-16
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
SPC_002
A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o...
Morgan Stanley
Markets/Stocks45%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
240_014
Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months
Sam Altman
AI50%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-21
CYB_028
The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups...
Mark Cuban
Markets/Stocks48%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-21
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-21
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66
FDA ANDA209543: BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE (BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE) — ALEMBIC
fda
2026-06-12
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-19
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.
Dave Blundin
AI37%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
SEM_033
AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Physics56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
CYB_011
Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev...
Alex Finn
Consumer44%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
AI_006
True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro...
Andrej Karpathy
AI38%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-22
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
237_001
Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent.
Peter Diamandis
AI55%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
ROB_025
Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati...
Peter Dannenberg
Biotech/Longevity70%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
CYB_013
The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou...
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks52%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
229_044
Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.
Brett Adcock
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
AI_016
The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI82%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
CMQ_049
Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration.
Jason Calacanis
AI/Markets50%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-23
INF_025
Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams.
Brett Adcock
Robotics37%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-26
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66
SpaceX pivots away from xAI(market prob: 27%)
manifold
2026-06-26
240_027
SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks74%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
SPC_016
AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human...
Ben Lamm
Space72%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
CYB_023
Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de...
Michael Saylor
Crypto26%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
240_013
Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs
Sam Altman
AI41%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
232_060
We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI20%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
248_023
Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
232_058
Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI38%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
233_021
AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.
Joe Liemandt
AI30%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-25
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-24
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
SPC_008
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
New Market Pitch
Space70%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-20
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-22
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66manifold
2026-06-29
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-24
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_055
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
Brett Adcock
Robotics29%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
INF_026
'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru...
Andrej Karpathy
AI64%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
229_044
Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.
Brett Adcock
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
TK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
CMQ_043
In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically.
Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel
AI/Compute92%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
CYB_023
Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de...
Michael Saylor
Crypto26%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
CYB_011
Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev...
Alex Finn
Consumer44%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
242_043
AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
AI_029
Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer.
Morgan Stanley
AI57%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
241_031
Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement
Eric Schmidt
AI48%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_055
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
Brett Adcock
Robotics29%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-28
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-23
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.66manifold
2026-07-01
230_035
GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy32%
0.66manifold
2026-07-01
242_037
China will land on the moon before end of 2030
China (government)
Space37%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-30
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-30
AI_036
Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell...
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI49%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-30
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-30
S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030
Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030
robotaxi_deployment30%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
233_021
AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.
Joe Liemandt
AI30%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_031
AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Compute42%
0.66github_release
2026-07-01
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66github_release
2026-07-01
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-03
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-03
242_056
AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy16%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-03
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-01
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-01
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-01
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-01
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-01
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.66arxiv
2026-06-30
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
230_022
Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.
Elon Musk
Robotics22%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-01
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-29
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-28
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-25
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-28
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-04
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
CYB_003
Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI...
Alex Finn
AI55%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
CYB_005
'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio...
Ray Kurzweil
AI30%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-29
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-02
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-02
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
230_009
US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy46%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-06
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
230_022
Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.
Elon Musk
Robotics22%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-06
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66manifold
2026-07-06
240_050
US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs35%
0.66manifold
2026-07-06
COD_AI_003
EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay
Codex Research Pack
Geopolitics40%
0.66
FDA ANDA210401: ACYCLOVIR (ACYCLOVIR) — YILING
fda
2026-06-24
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-01
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-01
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-04
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-07
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.66polymarket
2026-06-30
230_022
Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.
Elon Musk
Robotics22%
0.66polymarket
2026-07-07
246_011
Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.
Dave Blundin
AI42%